Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SC Paderborn 07

Bundesliga Gameweek 8 Sat, Oct 31 · 14:30 BORUSSIA-PARK, Mönchengladbach

Borussia Mönchengladbach 18th · 0 pts · 6 played LLLLL

VS— Compare

SC Paderborn 07 16th · 5 pts · 6 played LLWLD

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It looks too close to call.

The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards SC Paderborn 07. Borussia Mönchengladbach have 7.8 days of rest, SC Paderborn 07 7 and have to travel 171 km. Conditions look neutral.

Away travel171 kmRest days7.8 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 1

Borussia Mönchengladbach42%

Draw23%

SC Paderborn 0735%

Expected goals 1.86 – 1.68

Borussia Mönchengladbach42%

Draw27%

SC Paderborn 0731%

Expected goals 1.47 – 1.22

Borussia Mönchengladbach42%

Draw23%

SC Paderborn 0735%

Expected goals 1.86 – 1.68

Borussia Mönchengladbach34%

Draw23%

SC Paderborn 0743%

Expected goals 1.65 – 1.88

Borussia Mönchengladbach42%

Draw24%

SC Paderborn 0735%

Expected goals 1.74 – 1.58

Over 2.5 68% Both score 69% Likeliest score 1–1

EloLambda forecast, updated 8 hours ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Mönchengladbach)

13°CClear

Precipitation 26%
Wind 10 km/h
Humidity 75%

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Trend Borussia Mönchengladbach 67% Both teams scored Last 6 recorded matches · all competitions Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored

Defence

Streaks

Streak Borussia Mönchengladbach 6 Losses in a row Last 6 recorded matches · all competitions Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Losses in a row

Team strength

Borussia Mönchengladbach

SC Paderborn 07

36 L90 StrengthIn forecast 38

36 Current StrengthIn forecast 38

34 AttackIn forecast 34

21 DefenceIn forecast 33

7 Form indexContext 33

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Borussia Mönchengladbach

Attack+18%

Defense risk−22%

SC Paderborn 07

Attack+34%

Defense risk−22%

Both teams face a more favorable matchup than their league-average baseline.

Playing style

Borussia Mönchengladbach

SC Paderborn 07

1.33 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.83

3.33 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50

1.40 xGVia Att/Def 0.90

2.49 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.84

-0.07 Goals minus xGContext -0.07

67% Scored inContext 33%

0% Clean sheetsContext 17%

15.17 ShotsContext 13.50

5.40 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.25

30% On target shareContext 21%

9.83 Shots in the boxContext 7.67

64% Box shareContext 58%

9% ConversionContext 6%

3.00 OffsidesContext 1.20

18.17 Shots allowedContext 18.17

8.83 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.33

3.20 BlocksContext 6.33

5.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.67

62% Save rateContext 74%

48% PossessionIn forecast 46%

404 PassesContext 443

328 Accurate passesContext 357

81% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.46 Team ratingContext 6.88

14.83 FoulsContext 10.50

10.17 Fouls sufferedContext 10.83

2.83 Yellow cardsContext 1.33

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 6 and 6 games

1.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.10

2.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20

1.26 xGVia Att/Def 1.16

2.04 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.69

+0.14 Goals minus xGContext -0.06

70% Scored inContext 50%

30% Clean sheetsContext 30%

13.50 ShotsContext 14.50

4.44 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.75

30% On target shareContext 26%

8.80 Shots in the boxContext 10.38

65% Box shareContext 60%

10% ConversionContext 8%

2.78 OffsidesContext 1.33

15.10 Shots allowedContext 16.00

7.10 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.80

2.88 BlocksContext 5.11

4.80 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.60

68% Save rateContext 79%

50% PossessionIn forecast 48%

432 PassesContext 451

356 Accurate passesContext 366

82% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.63 Team ratingContext 6.94

12.60 FoulsContext 10.80

11.40 Fouls sufferedContext 10.60

2.90 Yellow cardsContext 1.60

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Borussia Mönchengladbach LLLLL

Rest7.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km662 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 7 · 0 pts vs 7.3 for an average club · -6.2 vs expected

L18 OctH · 1899 Hoffenheim1–21.5 xPts
L11 OctA · 1.FC Köln1–21.1 xPts
L19 SepH · FSV Mainz 053–41.3 xPts
L12 SepA · SC Freiburg0–50.7 xPts
L5 SepH · SV Elversberg3–41.6 xPts

SC Paderborn 07 LLWLD

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel171 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 33 · 4 pts vs 6.0 for an average club · -1.3 vs expected

D17 OctA · Werder Bremen2–21.1 xPts
L10 OctH · VfB Stuttgart0–21.2 xPts
W20 SepH · 1899 Hoffenheim3–11.3 xPts
L12 SepA · Borussia Dortmund0–30.5 xPts
L5 SepH · SC Freiburg0–11.2 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Borussia Mönchengladbach	SC Paderborn 07
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7.8Bundesliga 2026-2027, 23 Oct	7Bundesliga 2026-2027, 24 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	171 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	662 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 2 / 3	0 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	6.2	7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Borussia Mönchengladbach Last XI · not confirmed

4-4-2 · vs 1899 Hoffenheim (H) 1–2, 18 Oct

1M. Nicolas(G)

26L. Ullrich 2F. Chiarodia 4K. Diks 16P. Sander

36W. Mohya 10F. Neuhaus 47Z. Uno 29J. Scally

3I. Lidberg 38A. Bolin

SC Paderborn 07 Last XI · not confirmed

3-1-4-2 · vs Werder Bremen (A) 2–2, 17 Oct

15N. Noll(G)

22M. Hansen 25T. Scheller 21J. ter Horst

5S. Castañeda

23R. Obermair 40G. Vidović 28L. Ulrich 17L. Curda

27S. Tigges 30S. Marino

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Borussia Mönchengladbach No reported absences

SC Paderborn 07 No reported absences

Total impact vs full squads

Borussia Mönchengladbach+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
SC Paderborn 07+0.0 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Borussia Mönchengladbach · Home 0.00points per game · 3 home games

W-D-L: 0-0-3
Scored: 2.33
Conceded: 3.33

SC Paderborn 07 · Away 0.67points per game · 3 away games

W-D-L: 0-2-1
Scored: 0.67
Conceded: 1.67

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 3 this season

Opponent	Borussia Mönchengladbach	SC Paderborn 07
1899 Hoffenheim	L 1–2 H	W 3–1 H
FSV Mainz 05	L 3–4 H	D 0–0 A
SC Freiburg	L 0–5 A	L 0–1 H
Points	0 of 9 · 0.00 per game	4 of 9 · 1.33 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	Borussia Mönchengladbach	SC Paderborn 07	Forecast
Scored per game	1.33	0.83
Conceded per game	3.33	1.50
Match goals	4.67	2.33	3.53
Over 1.5	100%	67%
Over 2.5	100%	50%	68%
Over 3.5	50%	33%
Both teams scored	67%	33%	69%
Clean sheets	0%	17%
Failed to score	33%	67%
Games	6	6

	Borussia Mönchengladbach	SC Paderborn 07	Forecast
Scored per game	1.40	0.83
Conceded per game	2.30	1.50
Match goals	3.70	2.33	3.53
Over 1.5	80%	67%
Over 2.5	80%	50%	68%
Over 3.5	50%	33%
Both teams scored	50%	33%	69%
Clean sheets	30%	17%
Failed to score	30%	67%
Games	10	6

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Borussia Mönchengladbach	SC Paderborn 07	League
Corners
Corners won	6.00	4.33
Corners conceded	5.50	6.17
Match total	11.50	10.50	10.72
Over 8.5	83% 5/6	83% 5/6
Over 9.5	67% 4/6	67% 4/6
Over 10.5	50% 3/6	50% 3/6
Cards
Cards	3.00	1.33
Opponent cards	1.83	1.17
Match total	4.83	2.50	3.51
Over 3.5	83% 5/6	17% 1/6
Over 4.5	33% 2/6	17% 1/6

	Borussia Mönchengladbach	SC Paderborn 07	League
Corners
Corners won	4.60	5.10
Corners conceded	5.30	4.70
Match total	9.90	9.80	10.72
Over 8.5	70% 7/10	60% 6/10
Over 9.5	60% 6/10	50% 5/10
Over 10.5	40% 4/10	40% 4/10
Cards
Cards	3.10	1.70
Opponent cards	2.10	2.00
Match total	5.20	3.70	3.51
Over 3.5	90% 9/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.