UEFA Europa League Matchday 7 Thu, Jan 21 · 17:45 Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki, Piraeus
Olympiakos Piraeus 10th · 6 pts · 2 played
VS— Compare
1899 Hoffenheim 30th · 0 pts · 2 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel1,725 kmRest days41.9 · 5.1Matches / 14d0 · 3
Real contextStrength only
Olympiakos Piraeus—%
Draw—%
1899 Hoffenheim—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Piraeus)

Forecast from 6 Jan

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Olympiakos Piraeus and 1899 Hoffenheim. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Team strength

Olympiakos Piraeus1899 Hoffenheim
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
63 Current StrengthIn forecast 49
54 AttackIn forecast 46
68 DefenceIn forecast 43
— Form indexContext 15
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Olympiakos Piraeus

Attack—
Defense risk—

1899 Hoffenheim

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Olympiakos Piraeus1899 Hoffenheim
1.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00
0.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.50
1.44 xGVia Att/Def —
0.65 xG allowedVia Att/Def —
+0.06 Goals minus xGContext —
100% Scored inContext 50%
50% Clean sheetsContext 0%
16.00 ShotsContext 17.00
5.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.00
31% On target shareContext 24%
11.50 Shots in the boxContext 11.00
74% Box shareContext 66%
9% ConversionContext 6%
2.00 OffsidesContext —
7.50 Shots allowedContext 14.00
4.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.00
— BlocksContext 4.50
4.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 1.50
100% Save rateContext 38%
52% PossessionIn forecast 60%
441 PassesContext 506
365 Accurate passesContext 418
83% Pass accuracyContext 83%
6.96 Team ratingContext 6.39
10.50 FoulsContext 20.50
13.00 Fouls sufferedContext 8.00
2.00 Yellow cardsContext 3.50
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 2 and 2 games
1.10 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.40
0.40 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.30
1.56 xGVia Att/Def 1.56
0.38 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.52
-0.46 Goals minus xGContext -0.16
60% Scored inContext 80%
70% Clean sheetsContext 10%
17.10 ShotsContext 16.60
5.10 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.70
30% On target shareContext 28%
10.60 Shots in the boxContext 10.30
61% Box shareContext 62%
6% ConversionContext 8%
2.00 OffsidesContext 2.14
6.90 Shots allowedContext 12.90
2.70 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.20
3.00 BlocksContext 4.10
2.56 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.10
89% Save rateContext 50%
59% PossessionIn forecast 59%
488 PassesContext 515
392 Accurate passesContext 426
80% Pass accuracyContext 83%
6.95 Team ratingContext 6.72
11.80 FoulsContext 14.00
11.40 Fouls sufferedContext 9.00
1.70 Yellow cardsContext 2.50
0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Olympiakos Piraeus
Rest41.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 74 · 6 pts vs 3.1 for an average club · +2.4 vs expected
  • W15 OctA · Marseille1–01.5 xPts
  • W16 SepH · Jagiellonia2–12.1 xPts
1899 Hoffenheim
Rest5.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel1,725 km184 km in 14d
Schedule load35%Moderate
Form 15 · 3 pts vs 7.9 for an average club · -5.0 vs expected
  • W18 OctA · Borussia Mönchengladbach2–11.2 xPts
  • L15 OctH · Besiktas2–31.5 xPts
  • L10 OctH · Hamburger SV2–31.9 xPts
  • L20 SepA · SC Paderborn 071–31.4 xPts
  • L17 SepA · OFI0–21.9 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Olympiakos Piraeus 1899 Hoffenheim
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Moderate · 35
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match41.9UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - League phase, 10 Dec5.1Bundesliga 2026-2027, 16 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km1,725 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways0 km184 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days0 / 0 / 01 / 3 / 3
Next matchdays after this one7.11.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Olympiakos Piraeus Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Marseille (A) 1–0, 15 Oct
1S. Ortega(G)
70S. Onyemaechi 5L. Pirola 45P. Retsos 2E. Saliakas
32S. Hezze 15G. Puerta
20Jota Silva 22Chiquinho 10Gelson Martins
11R. Yaremchuk
1899 Hoffenheim Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Borussia Mönchengladbach (A) 2–1, 18 Oct
1O. Baumann(G)
39M. Rots 28K. Machida 2R. Hranáč 34V. Coufal
22A. Prass 7L. Avdullahu
10A. Hložek 11F. Asllani 20B. Conté
19T. Lemperle

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Olympiakos Piraeus Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
1899 Hoffenheim Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Olympiakos Piraeus · Home 3.00points per game · 1 home games
W-D-L
1-0-0
Scored
2.00
Conceded
1.00
1899 Hoffenheim · Away 0.00points per game · 1 away games
W-D-L
0-0-1
Scored
0.00
Conceded
2.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

Olympiakos Piraeus1899 HoffenheimForecast
Scored per game 1.501.00
Conceded per game 0.502.50
Match goals 2.003.50
Over 1.5 50%100%
Over 2.5 50%50%
Over 3.5 0%50%
Both teams scored 50%50%
Clean sheets 50%0%
Failed to score 0%50%
Games22
Olympiakos Piraeus1899 HoffenheimForecast
Scored per game 1.001.40
Conceded per game 0.752.30
Match goals 1.753.70
Over 1.5 50%90%
Over 2.5 50%80%
Over 3.5 0%60%
Both teams scored 50%70%
Clean sheets 50%10%
Failed to score 25%20%
Games410

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

Olympiakos Piraeus1899 HoffenheimLeague
Corners
Corners won1.007.50
Corners conceded9.004.50
Match total10.0012.009.76
Over 8.5100% 1/1100% 2/2
Over 9.5100% 1/1100% 2/2
Over 10.50% 0/1100% 2/2
Cards
Cards2.003.50
Opponent cards2.501.50
Match total4.505.003.76
Over 3.5100% 2/2100% 2/2
Over 4.550% 1/2100% 2/2
Olympiakos Piraeus1899 HoffenheimLeague
Corners
Corners won5.577.10
Corners conceded3.714.20
Match total9.2811.309.76
Over 8.557% 4/7100% 10/10
Over 9.543% 3/790% 9/10
Over 10.529% 2/770% 7/10
Cards
Cards1.802.70
Opponent cards1.701.40
Match total3.504.103.76
Over 3.540% 4/1060% 6/10
Over 4.530% 3/1040% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Olympiakos Piraeus2 games · scored 3 · conceded 1
0-15
1 16-30
2 31-45
46-60
61-75
1 76-90
1899 Hoffenheim2 games · scored 2 · conceded 5
0-15
1 16-30
31-45
1 46-60
1 1 61-75
1 2 76-90
Olympiakos Piraeus10 games · scored 11 · conceded 4
0-15
1 1 16-30
3 31-45
2 46-60
2 1 61-75
3 2 76-90
1899 Hoffenheim10 games · scored 14 · conceded 23
2 2 0-15
2 3 16-30
2 1 31-45
4 4 46-60
3 5 61-75
1 8 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

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