Belgian Pro League Knockout phase Sat, Nov 7 · 19:45 Bosuilstadion, Deurne
Antwerp 13th · 7 pts · 8 played
VS— Compare
Lommel United 10th · 11 pts · 8 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

It looks too close to call.

Lommel United are the stronger side on L90 Strength (36 vs 26). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Lommel United. Antwerp have 6.3 days of rest, Lommel United 6.1 and have to travel 59 km.

Away travel59 kmRest days6.3 · 6.1Matches / 14d1 · 1
Antwerp34%
Draw26%
Lommel United40%
Expected goals 1.41 – 1.54
Antwerp36%
Draw27%
Lommel United37%
Expected goals 1.33 – 1.34
Antwerp34%
Draw26%
Lommel United40%
Expected goals 1.41 – 1.54
Antwerp27%
Draw25%
Lommel United48%
Expected goals 1.26 – 1.73
Antwerp34%
Draw25%
Lommel United41%
Expected goals 1.45 – 1.59
Over 2.5 57% Both score 60% Likeliest score 1–1
EloLambda forecast, updated 2 days ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Deurne)

Forecast from 23 Oct

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Antwerp and Lommel United. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

AntwerpLommel United
26 L90 StrengthIn forecast 36
26 Current StrengthIn forecast 36
24 AttackIn forecast 32
19 DefenceIn forecast 41
9 Form indexContext 47
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Antwerp

Attack—
Defense risk—

Lommel United

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

AntwerpLommel United
1.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.13
2.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.13
1.35 xGVia Att/Def 1.13
1.61 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.15
+0.15 Goals minus xGContext +0.00
75% Scored inContext 50%
13% Clean sheetsContext 38%
14.63 ShotsContext 10.75
5.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.00
34% On target shareContext 28%
9.50 Shots in the boxContext 7.00
64% Box shareContext 66%
10% ConversionContext 11%
1.33 OffsidesContext 2.33
16.25 Shots allowedContext 19.25
6.63 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.63
4.38 BlocksContext 6.50
3.88 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.50
59% Save rateContext 76%
48% PossessionIn forecast 44%
393 PassesContext 407
316 Accurate passesContext 339
81% Pass accuracyContext 83%
6.66 Team ratingContext 6.86
14.00 FoulsContext 7.00
9.50 Fouls sufferedContext 10.75
1.88 Yellow cardsContext 1.00
0.13 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 8 and 8 games
1.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.20
2.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.10
1.27 xGVia Att/Def 1.13
1.59 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.15
+0.13 Goals minus xGContext +0.07
70% Scored inContext 50%
30% Clean sheetsContext 40%
14.50 ShotsContext 10.50
4.80 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.75
33% On target shareContext 29%
9.30 Shots in the boxContext 7.00
63% Box shareContext 66%
10% ConversionContext 11%
1.63 OffsidesContext 2.33
17.10 Shots allowedContext 18.80
6.80 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.40
5.10 BlocksContext 5.80
4.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.30
66% Save rateContext 75%
47% PossessionIn forecast 45%
387 PassesContext 403
311 Accurate passesContext 331
81% Pass accuracyContext 82%
6.79 Team ratingContext 6.88
13.20 FoulsContext 7.20
9.60 Fouls sufferedContext 11.40
2.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.20
0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Antwerp
Rest6.3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km173 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 9 · 0 pts vs 6.6 for an average club · -4.8 vs expected
  • L11 OctA · KVC Westerlo1–51.0 xPts
  • L20 SepH · Union St. Gilloise0–20.7 xPts
  • L13 SepA · Club Brugge KV1–30.5 xPts
  • L5 SepA · Standard Liege0–11.1 xPts
  • L30 AugH · St. Truiden1–41.6 xPts
Lommel United
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel59 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 47 · 7 pts vs 7.3 for an average club · +0.9 vs expected
  • W9 OctA · SK Beveren3–11.4 xPts
  • D19 SepH · KV Mechelen0–01.9 xPts
  • L12 SepA · Union St. Gilloise0–50.6 xPts
  • L4 SepH · Club Brugge KV0–11.0 xPts
  • W29 AugA · Cercle Brugge1–01.2 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Antwerp Lommel United
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match6.3Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 1 Nov6.1Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 1 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km59 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways173 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 1 / 31 / 1 / 2
Next matchdays after this one1414.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Antwerp Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs KVC Westerlo (A) 1–5, 11 Oct
41Taishi Brandon Nozawa(G)
5D. Foulon 3Álvaro Cortés 20R. Van Helden 17S. Renders
48A. Vermeeren 8M. Benítez
7I. Salah 24T. Somers 14Xander Dierickx
9M. Frey
Lommel United Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs SK Beveren (A) 3–1, 9 Oct
23M. Pieklak(G)
4S. Adewoye 8Nicolas Rommens 3T. Eyoma 2J. van Duiven
44I. Dada-Mascoll 15Lucas Schoofs
11S. Appuah 10Tom Reyners 7J. Talvitie
9D. Konadu

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Antwerp No reported absences
Lommel United No reported absences
Total impact vs full squads
  • Antwerp+0.0 pp
  • Draw+0.0 pp
  • Lommel United+0.0 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Antwerp · Home 1.00points per game · 4 home games
W-D-L
1-1-2
Scored
1.75
Conceded
2.75
Lommel United · Away 1.75points per game · 4 away games
W-D-L
2-1-1
Scored
1.25
Conceded
1.75

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 5 this season

OpponentAntwerpLommel United
KVC Westerlo L 1–5 A W 4–0 H
Union St. Gilloise L 0–2 H L 0–5 A
Club Brugge KV L 1–3 A L 0–1 H
St. Truiden L 1–4 H D 1–1 A
SK Beveren W 2–1 H W 3–1 A
Points3 of 15 · 0.60 per game7 of 15 · 1.40 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

AntwerpLommel UnitedForecast
Scored per game 1.501.13
Conceded per game 2.501.13
Match goals 4.002.25 2.95
Over 1.5 88%50%
Over 2.5 75%38% 57%
Over 3.5 50%38%
Both teams scored 63%25% 60%
Clean sheets 13%38%
Failed to score 25%50%
Games88
AntwerpLommel UnitedForecast
Scored per game 1.301.13
Conceded per game 2.201.13
Match goals 3.502.25 2.95
Over 1.5 80%50%
Over 2.5 60%38% 57%
Over 3.5 40%38%
Both teams scored 60%25% 60%
Clean sheets 10%38%
Failed to score 30%50%
Games108

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

AntwerpLommel UnitedLeague
Corners
Corners won4.633.50
Corners conceded5.507.88
Match total10.1311.3810.01
Over 8.550% 4/888% 7/8
Over 9.538% 3/875% 6/8
Over 10.538% 3/863% 5/8
Cards
Cards2.131.00
Opponent cards2.251.63
Match total4.382.633.36
Over 3.563% 5/825% 2/8
Over 4.550% 4/825% 2/8
AntwerpLommel UnitedLeague
Corners
Corners won4.603.60
Corners conceded6.107.60
Match total10.7011.2010.01
Over 8.560% 6/1090% 9/10
Over 9.550% 5/1080% 8/10
Over 10.550% 5/1060% 6/10
Cards
Cards2.201.20
Opponent cards2.001.80
Match total4.203.003.36
Over 3.560% 6/1040% 4/10
Over 4.550% 5/1030% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Antwerp8 games · scored 12 · conceded 20
2 0-15
3 1 16-30
1 2 31-45
1 5 46-60
2 3 61-75
5 7 76-90
Lommel United7 games · scored 9 · conceded 4
0-15
3 16-30
1 2 31-45
3 46-60
1 2 61-75
1 76-90
Antwerp10 games · scored 14 · conceded 20
2 0-15
3 1 16-30
2 2 31-45
1 5 46-60
3 3 61-75
5 7 76-90
Lommel United9 games · scored 12 · conceded 6
0-15
3 16-30
1 3 31-45
4 46-60
1 2 61-75
3 1 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Beta

Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.

Next fixtures Belgian Pro League

View all fixtures →
Standard Liege SK Beveren Nov 619:45 KVC Westerlo Charleroi Nov 715:00 OH Leuven KV Mechelen Nov 717:15 Antwerp Lommel United Nov 719:45 RAAL La Louvière Cercle Brugge Nov 719:45 Club Brugge KV Anderlecht Nov 812:30 Gent Kortrijk Nov 815:00 Union St. Gilloise Genk Nov 817:30 St. Truiden Zulte Waregem Nov 818:15