Belgian Pro League Knockout phase Sun, Nov 8 · 17:30 Stade Joseph Mariën, Brussels
Union St. Gilloise 4th · 20 pts · 8 played
VS— Compare
Genk 7th · 12 pts · 8 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

Union St. Gilloise are slight favourites.

Union St. Gilloise are the stronger side on L90 Strength (70 vs 44). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Genk. Union St. Gilloise have 2.9 days of rest, Genk 8.1 and have to travel 82 km.

Away travel82 kmRest days2.9 · 8.1Matches / 14d3 · 1
Union St. Gilloise59%
Draw22%
Genk19%
Expected goals 2.00 – 1.05
Union St. Gilloise60%
Draw23%
Genk17%
Expected goals 1.92 – 0.93
Union St. Gilloise59%
Draw22%
Genk19%
Expected goals 2.00 – 1.05
Union St. Gilloise51%
Draw24%
Genk25%
Expected goals 1.79 – 1.18
Union St. Gilloise59%
Draw22%
Genk19%
Expected goals 2.00 – 1.04
Over 2.5 59% Both score 57% Likeliest score 1–1
EloLambda forecast, updated 19 hours ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Brussels)

Forecast from 24 Oct

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Union St. Gilloise and Genk. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

Union St. GilloiseGenk
70 L90 StrengthIn forecast 44
70 Current StrengthIn forecast 44
62 AttackIn forecast 46
74 DefenceIn forecast 50
73 Form indexContext 49
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Union St. Gilloise

Attack—
Defense risk—

Genk

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Union St. GilloiseGenk
2.75 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.00
0.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50
1.32 xGVia Att/Def 2.18
0.98 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.89
+1.43 Goals minus xGContext -0.18
88% Scored inContext 75%
63% Clean sheetsContext 38%
16.88 ShotsContext 13.88
7.13 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.00
42% On target shareContext 36%
13.50 Shots in the boxContext 9.38
78% Box shareContext 66%
16% ConversionContext 14%
2.75 OffsidesContext 2.83
11.13 Shots allowedContext 13.50
2.75 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.75
4.13 BlocksContext 5.29
2.43 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.50
81% Save rateContext 67%
53% PossessionIn forecast 54%
458 PassesContext 499
377 Accurate passesContext 432
82% Pass accuracyContext 87%
7.14 Team ratingContext 6.97
11.38 FoulsContext 11.25
11.75 Fouls sufferedContext 10.38
1.75 Yellow cardsContext 1.88
0.13 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 8 and 8 games
2.30 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.80
0.70 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20
1.40 xGVia Att/Def 2.14
0.96 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.87
+0.90 Goals minus xGContext -0.34
90% Scored inContext 70%
60% Clean sheetsContext 50%
17.30 ShotsContext 15.50
7.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.80
41% On target shareContext 37%
13.20 Shots in the boxContext 10.50
75% Box shareContext 68%
13% ConversionContext 12%
2.78 OffsidesContext 2.75
11.90 Shots allowedContext 13.40
3.40 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.60
3.90 BlocksContext 5.11
3.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.60
75% Save rateContext 72%
51% PossessionIn forecast 54%
461 PassesContext 497
379 Accurate passesContext 429
82% Pass accuracyContext 86%
7.12 Team ratingContext 7.01
11.90 FoulsContext 11.30
11.90 Fouls sufferedContext 10.20
1.80 Yellow cardsContext 1.70
0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Union St. Gilloise
Rest2.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km2,843 km in 14d
Schedule load28%Moderate
Form 73 · 11 pts vs 8.2 for an average club · +0.8 vs expected
  • D15 OctH · Real Sociedad1–11.9 xPts
  • D11 OctH · OH Leuven1–12.7 xPts
  • W20 SepA · Antwerp2–02.1 xPts
  • W17 SepA · Plzen3–01.4 xPts
  • W12 SepH · Lommel United5–02.2 xPts
Genk
Rest8.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel82 km144 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 49 · 8 pts vs 8.1 for an average club · -0.4 vs expected
  • W10 OctH · Kortrijk3–02.4 xPts
  • L20 SepA · Club Brugge KV0–30.9 xPts
  • D13 SepH · Gent1–11.7 xPts
  • D6 SepA · Anderlecht0–01.3 xPts
  • W28 AugH · SK Beveren4–02.1 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Union St. Gilloise Genk
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextModerate · 28Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match2.9UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - League phase, 5 Nov8.1Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 31 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km82 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways2,843 km144 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 3 / 50 / 1 / 2
Next matchdays after this one13.913

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Union St. Gilloise Last XI · not confirmed
3-1-4-2 · vs Real Sociedad (H) 1–1, 15 Oct
12H. Koffi(G)
55Nikki Havenaar 29M. Sylla 4N. Chibani
6K. Van de Perre
11G. da Silva Carvalho 28D. Olaru 23B. Zeneli 27L. Patris
38R. Mofokeng 9Mateo Biondic
Genk Last XI · not confirmed
4-3-3 · vs Kortrijk (H) 3–0, 10 Oct
28L. Brughmans(G)
18J. Kayembe 44J. Kongolo 6M. Smets 20K. Amaro
8B. Heynen 38D. Heymans 4B. Tahirović
32N. Adedeji-Sternberg 17R. Durosinmi 10J. Ito

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Union St. Gilloise No reported absences
Genk No reported absences
Total impact vs full squads
  • Union St. Gilloise+0.0 pp
  • Draw+0.0 pp
  • Genk+0.0 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Union St. Gilloise · Home 2.00points per game · 4 home games
W-D-L
2-2-0
Scored
2.25
Conceded
0.25
Genk · Away 0.50points per game · 4 away games
W-D-L
0-2-2
Scored
1.25
Conceded
2.25

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 4 this season

OpponentUnion St. GilloiseGenk
Antwerp W 2–0 A D 4–4 A
Anderlecht W 3–0 H D 0–0 A
Zulte Waregem D 0–0 H L 1–2 A
KVC Westerlo W 5–1 A W 3–2 H
Points10 of 12 · 2.50 per game5 of 12 · 1.25 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings

3 Union St. Gilloise wins0 draws1 Genk wins
Goals per game1.25 – 1.00 Over 2.550% Both scored50% Clean sheets25% · 25%
  • 7 Mar 2026Union St. Gilloise2–1Genk
  • 21 Sep 2025Genk1–2Union St. Gilloise
  • 3 Feb 2024Genk0–1Union St. Gilloise
  • 16 Sep 2023Union St. Gilloise0–2Genk

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

Union St. GilloiseGenkForecast
Scored per game 2.752.00
Conceded per game 0.501.50
Match goals 3.253.50 3.05
Over 1.5 88%88%
Over 2.5 63%75% 59%
Over 3.5 38%38%
Both teams scored 38%50% 57%
Clean sheets 63%38%
Failed to score 13%25%
Games88
Union St. GilloiseGenkForecast
Scored per game 2.302.20
Conceded per game 0.702.20
Match goals 3.004.40 3.05
Over 1.5 90%90%
Over 2.5 60%80% 59%
Over 3.5 30%50%
Both teams scored 40%60% 57%
Clean sheets 60%30%
Failed to score 10%20%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

Union St. GilloiseGenkLeague
Corners
Corners won5.883.88
Corners conceded3.255.88
Match total9.139.7610.01
Over 8.563% 5/888% 7/8
Over 9.550% 4/850% 4/8
Over 10.538% 3/825% 2/8
Cards
Cards1.881.88
Opponent cards1.882.00
Match total3.763.883.36
Over 3.550% 4/850% 4/8
Over 4.525% 2/838% 3/8
Union St. GilloiseGenkLeague
Corners
Corners won4.804.60
Corners conceded3.905.40
Match total8.7010.0010.01
Over 8.550% 5/1080% 8/10
Over 9.550% 5/1050% 5/10
Over 10.540% 4/1030% 3/10
Cards
Cards2.001.70
Opponent cards1.901.80
Match total3.903.503.36
Over 3.560% 6/1040% 4/10
Over 4.530% 3/1030% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Union St. Gilloise7 games · scored 17 · conceded 4
1 1 0-15
2 2 16-30
3 1 31-45
4 46-60
3 61-75
4 76-90
Genk8 games · scored 16 · conceded 12
3 4 0-15
1 1 16-30
5 31-45
3 1 46-60
3 1 61-75
1 5 76-90
Union St. Gilloise9 games · scored 18 · conceded 7
1 0-15
2 2 16-30
4 1 31-45
4 2 46-60
3 61-75
4 2 76-90
Genk10 games · scored 18 · conceded 12
3 4 0-15
2 1 16-30
6 31-45
3 1 46-60
3 1 61-75
1 5 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Beta

Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.

Next fixtures Belgian Pro League

View all fixtures →
Standard Liege SK Beveren Nov 619:45 KVC Westerlo Charleroi Nov 715:00 OH Leuven KV Mechelen Nov 717:15 Antwerp Lommel United Nov 719:45 RAAL La Louvière Cercle Brugge Nov 719:45 Club Brugge KV Anderlecht Nov 812:30 Gent Kortrijk Nov 815:00 Union St. Gilloise Genk Nov 817:30 St. Truiden Zulte Waregem Nov 818:15