UEFA Champions League Matchday 4 Tue, Nov 3 · 20:00 Old Trafford, Manchester
Manchester United 13th · 3 pts · 2 played
VS— Compare
AS Roma 25th · 1 pts · 2 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

Manchester United are slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards AS Roma. Manchester United have 3.3 days of rest, AS Roma 3.1 and have to travel 1,690 km.

Away travel1,690 kmRest days3.3 · 3.1Matches / 14d3 · 3
Manchester United47%
Draw25%
AS Roma28%
Expected goals 1.73 – 1.30
Manchester United48%
Draw26%
AS Roma26%
Expected goals 1.60 – 1.12
Manchester United47%
Draw25%
AS Roma28%
Expected goals 1.73 – 1.30
Manchester United39%
Draw25%
AS Roma35%
Expected goals 1.55 – 1.45
Manchester United47%
Draw25%
AS Roma28%
Expected goals 1.71 – 1.27
Over 2.5 58% Both score 60% Likeliest score 1–1
EloLambda forecast, updated 5 hours ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Manchester)

No weather data yet

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Manchester United and AS Roma. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Team strength

Manchester UnitedAS Roma
79 L90 StrengthIn forecast 74
77 Current StrengthIn forecast 71
72 AttackIn forecast 72
80 DefenceIn forecast 75
38 Form indexContext 68
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Manchester United

Attack−2%
Defense risk+3%

AS Roma

Attack−30%
Defense risk+33%

Both teams face a less favorable matchup than their league-average baseline.

Playing style

Manchester UnitedAS Roma
2.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.00
1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.50
— xGVia Att/Def —
— xG allowedVia Att/Def —
— Goals minus xGContext —
50% Scored inContext 100%
50% Clean sheetsContext 0%
14.00 ShotsContext 11.00
6.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.00
46% On target shareContext 46%
10.50 Shots in the boxContext 7.50
73% Box shareContext 70%
14% ConversionContext 18%
— OffsidesContext —
10.00 Shots allowedContext 13.50
— On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.50
3.50 BlocksContext —
— Goalkeeper savesContext 4.00
67% Save rateContext 62%
50% PossessionIn forecast 56%
490 PassesContext 580
435 Accurate passesContext 513
89% Pass accuracyContext 88%
6.88 Team ratingContext 6.74
12.50 FoulsContext 17.00
12.00 Fouls sufferedContext 10.00
1.00 Yellow cardsContext 2.50
0.50 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 2 and 2 games
1.70 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.20
1.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.80
1.56 xGVia Att/Def 2.19
1.30 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.11
+0.14 Goals minus xGContext +0.01
70% Scored inContext 90%
20% Clean sheetsContext 60%
17.60 ShotsContext 16.80
5.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.90
31% On target shareContext 35%
10.50 Shots in the boxContext 11.90
60% Box shareContext 70%
10% ConversionContext 13%
2.29 OffsidesContext 3.00
11.00 Shots allowedContext 10.70
4.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.80
3.20 BlocksContext 2.57
2.78 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.90
69% Save rateContext 76%
53% PossessionIn forecast 57%
507 PassesContext 542
439 Accurate passesContext 466
87% Pass accuracyContext 86%
6.89 Team ratingContext 7.06
10.00 FoulsContext 12.70
11.50 Fouls sufferedContext 9.20
1.50 Yellow cardsContext 1.90
0.10 Red cardsContext 0.10
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Manchester United
Rest3.3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km2,878 km in 14d
Schedule load28%Moderate
Form 38 · 3 pts vs 4.4 for an average club · -4.2 vs expected
  • D18 OctA · Leeds1–11.2 xPts
  • L13 OctA · Atletico Madrid0–21.1 xPts
  • D10 OctH · Tottenham1–12.1 xPts
  • D20 SepA · Fulham1–11.6 xPts
  • L13 SepH · Manchester City0–11.3 xPts
AS Roma
Rest3.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel1,690 km1,310 km in 14d
Schedule load43%High
Form 68 · 8 pts vs 5.9 for an average club · -0.6 vs expected
  • W17 OctH · Genoa2–02.3 xPts
  • L14 OctH · Real Madrid3–41.2 xPts
  • D11 OctA · Como0–01.4 xPts
  • D19 SepH · Inter2–21.6 xPts
  • W14 SepA · Torino2–02.1 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Manchester United AS Roma
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextModerate · 28High · 43
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match3.3Premier League 2026-2027, 31 Oct3.1Serie A 2026-2027, 31 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km1,690 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways2,878 km1,310 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 3 / 61 / 3 / 7
Next matchdays after this one4.94

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Manchester United Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Leeds (A) 1–1, 18 Oct
1S. Lammens(G)
2Diogo Dalot 6L. Martínez 5J. Maguire 15L. Yoro
20C. Baleba 17Andrey Santos
8Bruno Fernandes 18Y. Tielemans 16A. Diallo
19B. Mbeumo
AS Roma Last XI · not confirmed
3-4-2-1 · vs Genoa (H) 2–0, 17 Oct
95P. Gollini(G)
3K. Koulierakis 5O. Ndicka 26L. Balerdi
2D. Rensch 61N. Pisilli 15M. de Roon 77Emanuele Lulli
86Rodrigo Mora 18M. Soulé
9S. Castro

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Manchester United No reported absences
AS Roma No reported absences
Total impact vs full squads
  • Manchester United+0.0 pp
  • Draw+0.0 pp
  • AS Roma+0.0 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Manchester United · Home 3.00points per game · 1 home games
W-D-L
1-0-0
Scored
4.00
Conceded
0.00
AS Roma · Away 1.00points per game · 1 away games
W-D-L
0-1-0
Scored
1.00
Conceded
1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

Manchester UnitedAS RomaForecast
Scored per game 2.002.00
Conceded per game 1.002.50
Match goals 3.004.50 3.03
Over 1.5 100%100%
Over 2.5 50%50% 58%
Over 3.5 50%50%
Both teams scored 0%100% 60%
Clean sheets 50%0%
Failed to score 50%0%
Games22
Manchester UnitedAS RomaForecast
Scored per game 1.702.20
Conceded per game 1.200.80
Match goals 2.903.00 3.03
Over 1.5 90%90%
Over 2.5 40%50% 58%
Over 3.5 30%40%
Both teams scored 50%40% 60%
Clean sheets 20%60%
Failed to score 30%10%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

Manchester UnitedAS RomaLeague
Corners
Corners won5.004.00
Corners conceded2.005.00
Match total7.009.009.71
Over 8.550% 1/250% 1/2
Over 9.50% 0/250% 1/2
Over 10.50% 0/250% 1/2
Cards
Cards1.502.50
Opponent cards1.502.50
Match total3.005.003.80
Over 3.550% 1/2100% 2/2
Over 4.50% 0/250% 1/2
Manchester UnitedAS RomaLeague
Corners
Corners won5.895.00
Corners conceded3.223.40
Match total9.118.409.71
Over 8.544% 4/940% 4/10
Over 9.533% 3/930% 3/10
Over 10.533% 3/930% 3/10
Cards
Cards1.602.00
Opponent cards2.302.00
Match total3.904.003.80
Over 3.560% 6/1070% 7/10
Over 4.520% 2/1040% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Manchester United2 games · scored 4 · conceded 2
1 0-15
1 16-30
2 31-45
46-60
1 61-75
1 76-90
AS Roma2 games · scored 4 · conceded 5
0-15
1 1 16-30
1 31-45
2 1 46-60
61-75
3 76-90
Manchester United10 games · scored 17 · conceded 12
1 0-15
1 2 16-30
6 1 31-45
3 2 46-60
4 1 61-75
3 5 76-90
AS Roma10 games · scored 22 · conceded 8
2 0-15
4 1 16-30
3 31-45
6 3 46-60
2 61-75
5 4 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Beta

Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.

Next fixtures UEFA Champions League

View all fixtures →
Shakhtar Donetsk Sporting CP Nov 317:45 Galatasaray VfB Stuttgart Nov 317:45 Manchester United AS Roma Nov 320:00 Feyenoord Inter Nov 320:00 Bodo/Glimt Lille Nov 320:00 Barcelona Aston Villa Nov 320:00 Atletico Madrid Bayern München Nov 320:00 Villarreal Paris Saint Germain Nov 320:00 Lask Linz Slovan Bratislava Nov 320:00 AEK Athens FC Real Madrid Nov 417:45 Fenerbahce Liverpool Nov 417:45 Lens Como Nov 420:00 Borussia Dortmund Real Betis Nov 420:00 RB Leipzig Manchester City Nov 420:00 PSV Eindhoven Club Brugge KV Nov 420:00 FC Porto Napoli Nov 420:00 Slavia Praha Arsenal Nov 420:00 Viking Sabah FA Nov 420:00