La Liga Gameweek 11 Sun, Nov 1 · 20:00 San Mamés Barria, Bilbao
Athletic Club 11th · 9 pts · 7 played
VS— Compare
Real Sociedad 5th · 16 pts · 9 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

Athletic Club are slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Athletic Club. Athletic Club have 7.3 days of rest, Real Sociedad 7.1 and have to travel 77 km. Conditions look neutral.

Away travel77 kmRest days7.3 · 7.1Matches / 14d2 · 2
Athletic Club46%
Draw25%
Real Sociedad29%
Expected goals 1.68 – 1.29
Athletic Club42%
Draw27%
Real Sociedad31%
Expected goals 1.47 – 1.22
Athletic Club46%
Draw25%
Real Sociedad29%
Expected goals 1.68 – 1.29
Athletic Club38%
Draw26%
Real Sociedad36%
Expected goals 1.50 – 1.44
Athletic Club47%
Draw24%
Real Sociedad29%
Expected goals 1.78 – 1.37
Over 2.5 57% Both score 60% Likeliest score 1–1
EloLambda forecast, updated 5 hours ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Bilbao)
11°CPartly cloudy
  • Precipitation 22%
  • Wind 5 km/h
  • Humidity 78%
Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Athletic Club and Real Sociedad. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

Athletic ClubReal Sociedad
55 L90 StrengthIn forecast 58
53 Current StrengthIn forecast 58
51 AttackIn forecast 62
64 DefenceIn forecast 48
70 Form indexContext 81
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Athletic Club

Attack+10%
Defense risk+4%

Real Sociedad

Attack−3%
Defense risk−4%

Changes versus each team's league-average baseline. Higher attack and lower defense risk are favorable.

Playing style

Athletic ClubReal Sociedad
1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.89
0.86 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.89
1.48 xGVia Att/Def 1.36
1.27 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.63
-0.48 Goals minus xGContext +0.53
57% Scored inContext 67%
57% Clean sheetsContext 11%
14.71 ShotsContext 14.11
5.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.44
29% On target shareContext 39%
9.14 Shots in the boxContext 8.22
65% Box shareContext 56%
7% ConversionContext 13%
3.33 OffsidesContext 2.14
10.43 Shots allowedContext 16.56
4.17 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.22
1.80 BlocksContext 4.00
4.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.56
83% Save rateContext 73%
54% PossessionIn forecast 49%
494 PassesContext 467
420 Accurate passesContext 399
85% Pass accuracyContext 85%
6.88 Team ratingContext 6.89
11.43 FoulsContext 12.11
11.71 Fouls sufferedContext 9.78
2.14 Yellow cardsContext 2.00
0.14 Red cardsContext 0.22
This league season, per match · 7 and 9 games
1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.90
1.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.90
1.43 xGVia Att/Def 1.28
1.17 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.72
-0.43 Goals minus xGContext +0.62
60% Scored inContext 80%
40% Clean sheetsContext 10%
14.60 ShotsContext 13.80
4.89 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.20
30% On target shareContext 38%
9.80 Shots in the boxContext 7.80
69% Box shareContext 55%
7% ConversionContext 14%
2.50 OffsidesContext 1.75
10.10 Shots allowedContext 15.80
4.44 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.70
1.71 BlocksContext 3.90
3.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.00
72% Save rateContext 70%
50% PossessionIn forecast 50%
448 PassesContext 481
372 Accurate passesContext 410
83% Pass accuracyContext 85%
6.77 Team ratingContext 6.82
12.70 FoulsContext 12.40
10.60 Fouls sufferedContext 10.70
1.70 Yellow cardsContext 1.90
0.10 Red cardsContext 0.20
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Athletic Club
Rest7.3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km944 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 70 · 9 pts vs 6.6 for an average club · +1.6 vs expected
  • D17 OctA · Valencia0–01.4 xPts
  • D19 SepH · Alaves0–01.6 xPts
  • D12 SepH · Elche1–12.0 xPts
  • W5 SepH · Atletico Madrid3–01.3 xPts
  • W30 AugA · Celta Vigo2–01.1 xPts
Real Sociedad
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel77 km4,101 km in 14d
Schedule load10%Low
Form 81 · 10 pts vs 5.9 for an average club · +4.0 vs expected
  • W18 OctA · Malaga5–21.3 xPts
  • D15 OctA · Union St. Gilloise1–10.9 xPts
  • W11 OctH · Deportivo La Coruna3–21.7 xPts
  • W20 SepA · Valencia3–21.2 xPts
  • L17 SepH · Bournemouth1–21.0 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Athletic Club Real Sociedad
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 10
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match7.3La Liga 2026-2027, 25 Oct7.1La Liga 2026-2027, 25 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km77 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways944 km4,101 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days0 / 2 / 40 / 2 / 5
Next matchdays after this one5.93.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Athletic Club Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Valencia (A) 0–0, 17 Oct
1Unai Simón(G)
31J. Louis-Jean 14A. Laporte 4Aitor Paredes 15Hugo Rincón
16Ruíz de Galarreta 24Beñat Gerenabarrena
23Robert Navarro 28Peio Canales 7Álex Berenguer
9I. Williams
Real Sociedad Last XI · not confirmed
4-4-2 · vs Malaga (A) 5–2, 18 Oct
1Álex Remiro(G)
3Aihen Muñoz 19M. Sarr 6Jon Martín 22Héctor Fort
7Barrenetxea 18Carlos Soler 4Jon Gorrotxategi 14T. Kubo
9O. Óskarsson 10Mikel Oyarzabal

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Athletic Club No reported absences
Real Sociedad No reported absences
Total impact vs full squads
  • Athletic Club+0.0 pp
  • Draw+0.0 pp
  • Real Sociedad+0.0 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Athletic Club · Home 1.25points per game · 4 home games
W-D-L
1-2-1
Scored
1.25
Conceded
1.00
Real Sociedad · Away 1.80points per game · 5 away games
W-D-L
3-0-2
Scored
2.40
Conceded
2.20

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 4 this season

OpponentAthletic ClubReal Sociedad
Valencia D 0–0 A W 3–2 A
Elche D 1–1 H W 3–2 A
Atletico Madrid W 3–0 H L 0–3 H
Celta Vigo W 2–0 A D 0–0 H
Points8 of 12 · 2.00 per game7 of 12 · 1.75 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 12 meetings

4 Athletic Club wins3 draws3 Real Sociedad wins
Goals per game1.40 – 1.20 Over 2.550% Both scored50% Clean sheets40% · 20%
  • 1 Feb 2026Athletic Club1–1Real Sociedad
  • 1 Nov 2025Real Sociedad3–2Athletic Club
  • 4 May 2025Real Sociedad0–0Athletic Club
  • 24 Nov 2024Athletic Club1–0Real Sociedad
  • 13 Jan 2024Athletic Club2–1Real Sociedad
  • 30 Sep 2023Real Sociedad3–0Athletic Club

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

Athletic ClubReal SociedadForecast
Scored per game 1.001.89
Conceded per game 0.861.89
Match goals 1.863.78 2.97
Over 1.5 71%78%
Over 2.5 29%78% 57%
Over 3.5 14%56%
Both teams scored 29%67% 60%
Clean sheets 57%11%
Failed to score 43%33%
Games79
Athletic ClubReal SociedadForecast
Scored per game 1.001.90
Conceded per game 1.301.90
Match goals 2.303.80 2.97
Over 1.5 80%90%
Over 2.5 30%80% 57%
Over 3.5 20%50%
Both teams scored 40%80% 60%
Clean sheets 40%10%
Failed to score 40%20%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

Athletic ClubReal SociedadLeague
Corners
Corners won6.147.00
Corners conceded4.434.89
Match total10.5711.899.91
Over 8.557% 4/7100% 9/9
Over 9.557% 4/778% 7/9
Over 10.557% 4/767% 6/9
Cards
Cards2.292.33
Opponent cards1.862.56
Match total4.154.894.73
Over 3.543% 3/778% 7/9
Over 4.543% 3/778% 7/9
Athletic ClubReal SociedadLeague
Corners
Corners won5.897.00
Corners conceded4.564.70
Match total10.4511.709.91
Over 8.556% 5/990% 9/10
Over 9.556% 5/980% 8/10
Over 10.556% 5/970% 7/10
Cards
Cards1.802.20
Opponent cards1.702.40
Match total3.504.604.73
Over 3.540% 4/1070% 7/10
Over 4.530% 3/1070% 7/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Athletic Club7 games · scored 7 · conceded 6
1 0-15
2 16-30
1 31-45
2 3 46-60
1 61-75
2 1 76-90
Real Sociedad9 games · scored 17 · conceded 17
3 0-15
3 16-30
3 2 31-45
2 3 46-60
3 7 61-75
3 5 76-90
Athletic Club10 games · scored 10 · conceded 13
3 0-15
2 16-30
1 2 31-45
3 4 46-60
1 1 61-75
3 3 76-90
Real Sociedad10 games · scored 19 · conceded 19
3 1 0-15
3 1 16-30
3 2 31-45
4 3 46-60
3 6 61-75
3 6 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Beta

Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.

Next fixtures La Liga

View all fixtures →
Villarreal Espanyol Oct 3020:00 Levante Atletico Madrid Oct 3113:00 Rayo Vallecano Celta Vigo Oct 3115:15 Real Betis Malaga Oct 3117:30 Barcelona Alaves Oct 3120:00 Getafe Sevilla Nov 113:00 Racing Santander Real Madrid Nov 115:15 Elche Valencia Nov 117:30 Athletic Club Real Sociedad Nov 120:00 Deportivo La Coruna Osasuna Nov 220:00