Elche vs Valencia – 1 Nov 2026

La Liga Gameweek 11 Sun, Nov 1 · 17:30 Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero, Elche

Elche 18th · 7 pts · 9 played DLWDD

VS— Compare

Valencia 19th · 6 pts · 9 played LWLDD

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Elche are slight favourites.

Valencia are the stronger side on L90 Strength (51 vs 44). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Elche. Elche have 8.2 days of rest, Valencia 8 and have to travel 138 km. Conditions look neutral.

Away travel138 kmRest days8.2 · 8Matches / 14d1 · 1

Elche43%

Draw27%

Valencia30%

Expected goals 1.46 – 1.18

Elche39%

Draw27%

Valencia34%

Expected goals 1.40 – 1.28

Elche43%

Draw27%

Valencia30%

Expected goals 1.46 – 1.18

Elche36%

Draw28%

Valencia37%

Expected goals 1.30 – 1.33

Elche43%

Draw26%

Valencia31%

Expected goals 1.55 – 1.28

Over 2.5 49% Both score 54% Likeliest score 1–1

EloLambda forecast, updated 6 hours ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Elche)

19°CClear

Precipitation 22%
Wind 7 km/h
Humidity 70%

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Trend Elche 67% Both teams scored Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored

Defence

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Team strength

Elche

Valencia

44 L90 StrengthIn forecast 51

44 Current StrengthIn forecast 51

39 AttackIn forecast 39

51 DefenceIn forecast 52

56 Form indexContext 36

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Elche

Attack+7%

Defense risk−16%

Valencia

Attack+10%

Defense risk−15%

Both teams face a more favorable matchup than their league-average baseline.

Playing style

Elche

Valencia

1.22 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.67

1.89 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.67

1.07 xGVia Att/Def 1.04

1.85 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.50

+0.15 Goals minus xGContext -0.37

67% Scored inContext 44%

22% Clean sheetsContext 33%

11.00 ShotsContext 11.11

4.22 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.00

38% On target shareContext 24%

6.44 Shots in the boxContext 7.50

55% Box shareContext 58%

11% ConversionContext 6%

1.83 OffsidesContext 2.11

14.89 Shots allowedContext 15.11

5.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.11

3.63 BlocksContext 4.00

3.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.56

60% Save rateContext 70%

51% PossessionIn forecast 46%

478 PassesContext 422

408 Accurate passesContext 346

85% Pass accuracyContext 82%

6.64 Team ratingContext 6.70

13.44 FoulsContext 10.89

13.33 Fouls sufferedContext 11.44

2.33 Yellow cardsContext 2.22

0.11 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 9 and 9 games

1.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.90

1.80 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.60

0.98 xGVia Att/Def 1.08

1.72 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.50

+0.22 Goals minus xGContext -0.18

70% Scored inContext 50%

20% Clean sheetsContext 30%

10.20 ShotsContext 11.90

3.90 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.33

38% On target shareContext 25%

6.44 Shots in the boxContext 8.00

55% Box shareContext 59%

12% ConversionContext 8%

1.83 OffsidesContext 2.00

14.40 Shots allowedContext 14.70

5.22 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.00

3.44 BlocksContext 3.78

3.33 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.50

64% Save rateContext 70%

50% PossessionIn forecast 44%

463 PassesContext 400

391 Accurate passesContext 326

84% Pass accuracyContext 82%

6.65 Team ratingContext 6.73

14.10 FoulsContext 10.90

14.00 Fouls sufferedContext 11.10

2.50 Yellow cardsContext 2.20

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Elche DLWDD

Rest8.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km704 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 56 · 6 pts vs 5.4 for an average club · +1.3 vs expected

D17 OctA · Villarreal0–00.7 xPts
D11 OctH · Celta Vigo0–01.5 xPts
W18 SepA · Espanyol3–11.1 xPts
L15 SepH · Real Madrid2–30.5 xPts
D12 SepA · Athletic Club1–10.8 xPts

Valencia LWLDD

Rest8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel138 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 36 · 5 pts vs 6.7 for an average club · -1.1 vs expected

D17 OctH · Athletic Club0–01.4 xPts
D11 OctA · Racing Santander2–21.2 xPts
L20 SepH · Real Sociedad2–31.6 xPts
W15 SepA · Alaves1–00.9 xPts
L11 SepA · Sevilla0–11.1 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Elche	Valencia
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	8.2La Liga 2026-2027, 24 Oct	8La Liga 2026-2027, 24 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	138 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	704 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 3	0 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	6.8	6.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Elche Last XI · not confirmed

5-3-2 · vs Villarreal (A) 0–0, 17 Oct

1M. Dituro(G)

11Germán Valera 3R. Revivo 23Víctor Chust 47J. Morcillo 2Buba Sangaré

18T. Lemar 8Marc Aguado 12Gonzalo Villar

21Lucas Cepeda 24A. Osorio

Valencia Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Athletic Club (H) 0–0, 17 Oct

1S. Dimitrievski(G)

14José Gayà 12J. de Haas 5César Tárrega 24Pablo Maffeo

2G. Rodríguez 18Pepelu

7A. Danjuma 8Javi Guerra 19Dani Raba

9Hugo Duro

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Elche No reported absences

Valencia No reported absences

Total impact vs full squads

Elche+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Valencia+0.0 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Elche · Home 0.25points per game · 4 home games

W-D-L: 0-1-3
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 2.75

Valencia · Away 1.00points per game · 4 away games

W-D-L: 1-1-2
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 1.50

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 6 this season

Opponent	Elche	Valencia
Celta Vigo	D 0–0 H	D 0–0 H
Athletic Club	D 1–1 A	D 0–0 H
Real Sociedad	L 2–3 H	L 2–3 H
Racing Santander	L 2–3 A	D 2–2 A
Barcelona	L 0–5 H	L 0–5 H
Deportivo La Coruna	D 1–1 A	L 1–3 A
Points	3 of 18 · 0.50 per game	3 of 18 · 0.50 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

2 Elche wins2 draws4 Valencia wins

Goals per game0.88 – 1.25 Over 2.538% Both scored50% Clean sheets13% · 38%

11 Apr 2026Elche1–0Valencia
10 Jan 2026Valencia1–1Elche
23 Apr 2023Elche0–2Valencia
15 Oct 2022Valencia2–2Elche
19 Mar 2022Elche0–1Valencia
11 Dec 2021Valencia2–1Elche

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Elche	Valencia	Forecast
Scored per game	1.22	0.67
Conceded per game	1.89	1.67
Match goals	3.11	2.33	2.64
Over 1.5	78%	44%
Over 2.5	56%	44%	49%
Over 3.5	56%	44%
Both teams scored	67%	33%	54%
Clean sheets	22%	33%
Failed to score	33%	56%
Games	9	9

	Elche	Valencia	Forecast
Scored per game	1.20	0.90
Conceded per game	1.80	1.60
Match goals	3.00	2.50	2.64
Over 1.5	80%	50%
Over 2.5	50%	50%	49%
Over 3.5	50%	50%
Both teams scored	70%	40%	54%
Clean sheets	20%	30%
Failed to score	30%	50%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Elche	Valencia	League
Corners
Corners won	4.56	4.00
Corners conceded	4.67	4.44
Match total	9.23	8.44	9.91
Over 8.5	33% 3/9	56% 5/9
Over 9.5	33% 3/9	56% 5/9
Over 10.5	33% 3/9	22% 2/9
Cards
Cards	2.44	2.22
Opponent cards	2.00	2.22
Match total	4.44	4.44	4.73
Over 3.5	67% 6/9	67% 6/9
Over 4.5	56% 5/9	56% 5/9

	Elche	Valencia	League
Corners
Corners won	4.20	4.30
Corners conceded	4.40	4.80
Match total	8.60	9.10	9.91
Over 8.5	30% 3/10	60% 6/10
Over 9.5	30% 3/10	60% 6/10
Over 10.5	30% 3/10	30% 3/10
Cards
Cards	2.60	2.20
Opponent cards	2.20	2.20
Match total	4.80	4.40	4.73
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	60% 6/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.