La Liga Gameweek 11 Sat, Oct 31 · 13:00 Estadio Ciudad de Valencia, Valencia
Levante 17th · 7 pts · 8 played
VS— Compare
Atletico Madrid 2nd · 22 pts · 9 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

Atletico Madrid are slight favourites.

Atletico Madrid are the stronger side on L90 Strength (81 vs 48). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Atletico Madrid. Levante have 5.8 days of rest, Atletico Madrid 6.8 and have to travel 302 km. Conditions look neutral.

Away travel302 kmRest days5.8 · 6.8Matches / 14d2 · 2
Levante19%
Draw22%
Atletico Madrid59%
Expected goals 1.09 – 2.04
Levante23%
Draw25%
Atletico Madrid52%
Expected goals 1.05 – 1.70
Levante19%
Draw22%
Atletico Madrid59%
Expected goals 1.09 – 2.04
Levante14%
Draw19%
Atletico Madrid66%
Expected goals 0.97 – 2.29
Levante20%
Draw21%
Atletico Madrid59%
Expected goals 1.17 – 2.14
Over 2.5 60% Both score 58% Likeliest score 1–1
EloLambda forecast, updated 1 hour ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Valencia)
21°CClear
  • Precipitation 8%
  • Wind 5 km/h
  • Humidity 76%
Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Levante and Atletico Madrid. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

LevanteAtletico Madrid
48 L90 StrengthIn forecast 81
48 Current StrengthIn forecast 81
55 AttackIn forecast 82
41 DefenceIn forecast 87
29 Form indexContext 96
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Levante

Attack−28%
Defense risk+38%

Atletico Madrid

Attack+16%
Defense risk−6%

Changes versus each team's league-average baseline. Higher attack and lower defense risk are favorable.

Playing style

LevanteAtletico Madrid
1.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.11
2.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.89
1.35 xGVia Att/Def 1.72
2.01 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.98
+0.15 Goals minus xGContext +0.39
63% Scored inContext 89%
25% Clean sheetsContext 44%
11.88 ShotsContext 17.56
4.86 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.44
36% On target shareContext 37%
7.71 Shots in the boxContext 10.33
58% Box shareContext 60%
13% ConversionContext 12%
2.25 OffsidesContext 2.00
15.25 Shots allowedContext 9.56
5.63 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.11
3.38 BlocksContext 2.89
3.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.22
62% Save rateContext 71%
44% PossessionIn forecast 60%
381 PassesContext 590
309 Accurate passesContext 521
81% Pass accuracyContext 88%
6.75 Team ratingContext 7.05
9.88 FoulsContext 12.11
12.75 Fouls sufferedContext 11.56
1.25 Yellow cardsContext 2.22
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.11
This league season, per match · 8 and 9 games
1.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.00
1.80 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00
1.43 xGVia Att/Def 1.70
1.79 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.13
+0.07 Goals minus xGContext +0.30
70% Scored inContext 90%
30% Clean sheetsContext 40%
12.20 ShotsContext 16.10
4.89 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.90
36% On target shareContext 37%
8.22 Shots in the boxContext 9.50
62% Box shareContext 58%
12% ConversionContext 12%
1.83 OffsidesContext 2.20
14.90 Shots allowedContext 10.20
5.60 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.50
3.56 BlocksContext 2.90
3.70 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.50
66% Save rateContext 71%
42% PossessionIn forecast 60%
359 PassesContext 588
291 Accurate passesContext 517
81% Pass accuracyContext 88%
6.80 Team ratingContext 7.04
9.60 FoulsContext 11.30
12.70 Fouls sufferedContext 11.70
1.40 Yellow cardsContext 2.10
0.10 Red cardsContext 0.10
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Levante
Rest5.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km894 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 29 · 3 pts vs 5.6 for an average club · -2.6 vs expected
  • D16 OctA · Deportivo La Coruna1–11.2 xPts
  • D12 OctH · Sevilla3–31.6 xPts
  • L20 SepA · Villarreal1–30.9 xPts
  • L13 SepH · Barcelona2–40.5 xPts
  • D6 SepA · Malaga0–01.3 xPts
Atletico Madrid
Rest6.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel302 km2,754 km in 14d
Schedule load11%Low
Form 96 · 15 pts vs 5.8 for an average club · +6.8 vs expected
  • W17 OctA · Espanyol1–01.9 xPts
  • W13 OctH · Manchester United2–01.7 xPts
  • W10 OctA · Alaves2–11.6 xPts
  • W20 SepH · Real Madrid2–11.1 xPts
  • W16 SepH · Osasuna4–01.9 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Levante Atletico Madrid
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 11
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match5.8La Liga 2026-2027, 25 Oct6.8La Liga 2026-2027, 24 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km302 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways894 km2,754 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 2 / 41 / 2 / 5
Next matchdays after this one8.23.3

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Levante Last XI · not confirmed
4-3-3 · vs Deportivo La Coruna (A) 1–1, 16 Oct
13M. Ryan(G)
23Manu Sánchez 3Ifeanyi Ndukwe 4Adrián de la Fuente 29Nacho Pérez
6Reque 20Oriol Rey 18E. Bardeli
24T. Fernandez 9Iván Romero 7Roger Brugué
Atletico Madrid Last XI · not confirmed
4-3-1-2 · vs Espanyol (A) 1–0, 17 Oct
13J. Oblak(G)
30Dani Martínez 17D. Hancko 21C. Romero 18Marc Pubill
23M. Hjulmand 8Pablo Barrios 20G. Simeone
7K. Lee
11A. Lookman 15J. David

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Levante No reported absences
Atletico Madrid No reported absences
Total impact vs full squads
  • Levante+0.0 pp
  • Draw+0.0 pp
  • Atletico Madrid+0.0 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Levante · Home 1.33points per game · 3 home games
W-D-L
1-1-1
Scored
3.33
Conceded
3.00
Atletico Madrid · Away 2.40points per game · 5 away games
W-D-L
4-0-1
Scored
1.80
Conceded
1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 5 this season

OpponentLevanteAtletico Madrid
Sevilla D 3–3 H W 3–1 A
Villarreal L 1–3 A D 2–2 H
Malaga D 0–0 A W 2–0 H
Osasuna D 0–0 A W 4–0 H
Espanyol L 0–3 A W 1–0 A
Points3 of 15 · 0.60 per game13 of 15 · 2.60 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

2 Levante wins3 draws1 Atletico Madrid wins
Goals per game1.17 – 1.00 Over 2.533% Both scored50% Clean sheets50% · 17%
  • 31 Jan 2026Levante0–0Atletico Madrid
  • 8 Nov 2025Atletico Madrid3–1Levante
  • 16 Feb 2022Atletico Madrid0–1Levante
  • 28 Oct 2021Levante2–2Atletico Madrid
  • 20 Feb 2021Atletico Madrid0–2Levante
  • 17 Feb 2021Levante1–1Atletico Madrid

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

LevanteAtletico MadridForecast
Scored per game 1.502.11
Conceded per game 2.000.89
Match goals 3.503.00 3.13
Over 1.5 75%89%
Over 2.5 63%78% 60%
Over 3.5 50%33%
Both teams scored 63%44% 58%
Clean sheets 25%44%
Failed to score 38%11%
Games89
LevanteAtletico MadridForecast
Scored per game 1.502.00
Conceded per game 1.801.00
Match goals 3.303.00 3.13
Over 1.5 80%90%
Over 2.5 60%80% 60%
Over 3.5 40%30%
Both teams scored 60%50% 58%
Clean sheets 30%40%
Failed to score 30%10%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

LevanteAtletico MadridLeague
Corners
Corners won3.865.57
Corners conceded5.713.57
Match total9.579.149.91
Over 8.543% 3/743% 3/7
Over 9.543% 3/743% 3/7
Over 10.529% 2/743% 3/7
Cards
Cards1.252.33
Opponent cards2.501.89
Match total3.754.224.73
Over 3.538% 3/867% 6/9
Over 4.525% 2/844% 4/9
LevanteAtletico MadridLeague
Corners
Corners won4.335.00
Corners conceded5.564.25
Match total9.899.259.91
Over 8.556% 5/950% 4/8
Over 9.556% 5/950% 4/8
Over 10.533% 3/950% 4/8
Cards
Cards1.502.20
Opponent cards2.201.70
Match total3.703.904.73
Over 3.540% 4/1060% 6/10
Over 4.520% 2/1030% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Levante8 games · scored 12 · conceded 16
3 0-15
1 1 16-30
2 4 31-45
2 3 46-60
1 1 61-75
6 4 76-90
Atletico Madrid9 games · scored 19 · conceded 8
1 0-15
2 16-30
2 1 31-45
4 2 46-60
2 2 61-75
8 3 76-90
Levante10 games · scored 15 · conceded 18
4 0-15
1 1 16-30
4 4 31-45
2 3 46-60
1 2 61-75
7 4 76-90
Atletico Madrid10 games · scored 20 · conceded 10
2 0-15
3 16-30
2 2 31-45
4 3 46-60
1 2 61-75
8 3 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Beta

Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.

Next fixtures La Liga

View all fixtures →
Villarreal Espanyol Oct 3020:00 Levante Atletico Madrid Oct 3113:00 Rayo Vallecano Celta Vigo Oct 3115:15 Real Betis Malaga Oct 3117:30 Barcelona Alaves Oct 3120:00 Getafe Sevilla Nov 113:00 Racing Santander Real Madrid Nov 115:15 Elche Valencia Nov 117:30 Athletic Club Real Sociedad Nov 120:00 Deportivo La Coruna Osasuna Nov 220:00