Real Betis vs Malaga – 31 Oct 2026

La Liga Gameweek 11 Sat, Oct 31 · 17:30 Estadio Benito Villamarín, Sevilla

Real Betis 4th · 19 pts · 9 played WWDWL

VS— Compare

Malaga 20th · 4 pts · 9 played DLLDL

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Real Betis are clear favourites.

Real Betis are the stronger side on L90 Strength (72 vs 41). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Real Betis. Real Betis have 6.1 days of rest, Malaga 7.9 and have to travel 156 km. Conditions look neutral.

Away travel156 kmRest days6.1 · 7.9Matches / 14d2 · 2

Real Betis73%

Draw16%

Malaga11%

Expected goals 2.64 – 0.96

Real Betis64%

Draw21%

Malaga15%

Expected goals 2.04 – 0.88

Real Betis73%

Draw16%

Malaga11%

Expected goals 2.64 – 0.96

Real Betis65%

Draw19%

Malaga15%

Expected goals 2.36 – 1.08

Real Betis74%

Draw15%

Malaga11%

Expected goals 2.80 – 1.02

Over 2.5 70% Both score 58% Likeliest score 2–0

EloLambda forecast, updated 7 hours ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Sevilla)

25°CPartly cloudy

Precipitation 6%
Wind 5 km/h
Humidity 46%

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Defence

Streaks

Streak Real Betis 10+ Scoring in a row Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Scoring in a row

Team strength

Real Betis

Malaga

72 L90 StrengthIn forecast 41

72 Current StrengthIn forecast 41

79 AttackIn forecast 28

59 DefenceIn forecast 31

80 Form indexContext 15

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Real Betis

Attack+30%

Defense risk−24%

Malaga

Attack−1%

Defense risk+27%

Changes versus each team's league-average baseline. Higher attack and lower defense risk are favorable.

Playing style

Real Betis

Malaga

1.78 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.67

1.56 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.00

1.65 xGVia Att/Def 0.84

1.96 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.68

+0.13 Goals minus xGContext -0.17

100% Scored inContext 56%

44% Clean sheetsContext 11%

16.44 ShotsContext 11.33

6.33 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.00

39% On target shareContext 27%

9.67 Shots in the boxContext 6.67

56% Box shareContext 62%

11% ConversionContext 6%

1.33 OffsidesContext 1.63

15.33 Shots allowedContext 14.89

6.22 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.89

3.78 BlocksContext 4.00

4.33 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.78

70% Save rateContext 64%

51% PossessionIn forecast 51%

495 PassesContext 481

429 Accurate passesContext 417

87% Pass accuracyContext 87%

7.03 Team ratingContext 6.70

9.89 FoulsContext 11.56

11.67 Fouls sufferedContext 11.67

1.56 Yellow cardsContext 2.44

0.11 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 9 and 9 games

2.10 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.80

1.80 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.90

1.71 xGVia Att/Def 0.84

1.79 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.68

+0.39 Goals minus xGContext -0.04

100% Scored inContext 60%

30% Clean sheetsContext 10%

16.70 ShotsContext 11.40

6.20 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.20

37% On target shareContext 28%

10.00 Shots in the boxContext 7.00

58% Box shareContext 64%

13% ConversionContext 7%

1.40 OffsidesContext 1.63

14.60 Shots allowedContext 14.70

6.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.90

3.50 BlocksContext 3.70

4.33 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.90

67% Save rateContext 66%

52% PossessionIn forecast 51%

504 PassesContext 474

438 Accurate passesContext 408

87% Pass accuracyContext 86%

6.98 Team ratingContext 6.74

10.70 FoulsContext 10.90

11.90 Fouls sufferedContext 11.50

1.80 Yellow cardsContext 2.50

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Real Betis WDWWL

Rest6.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km1,176 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 80 · 10 pts vs 6.1 for an average club · +2.3 vs expected

L17 OctH · Barcelona2–50.8 xPts
W14 OctH · FC Porto3–21.4 xPts
W11 OctH · Osasuna5–22.0 xPts
D20 SepA · Deportivo La Coruna1–11.6 xPts
W17 SepH · Getafe1–02.0 xPts

Malaga DLLDL

Rest7.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel156 km1,395 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 15 · 2 pts vs 6.8 for an average club · -4.7 vs expected

L18 OctH · Real Sociedad2–51.5 xPts
D9 OctH · Espanyol1–11.6 xPts
L20 SepA · Getafe0–11.2 xPts
L17 SepH · Villarreal1–31.3 xPts
D13 SepA · Celta Vigo1–11.2 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Real Betis	Malaga
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6.1La Liga 2026-2027, 25 Oct	7.9La Liga 2026-2027, 23 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	156 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	1,176 km	1,395 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 5	0 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	4.1	6.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Real Betis Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Barcelona (H) 2–5, 17 Oct

1Álvaro Vallés(G)

11Fran García 16Valentín Gómez 3Diego Llorente 2Héctor Bellerín

25Dani Ceballos 6F. Bernal

10A. Ezzalzouli 8Pablo Fornals 20G. Lo Celso

9C. Hernández

Malaga Last XI · not confirmed

4-4-2 · vs Real Sociedad (H) 2–5, 18 Oct

1Alfonso Herrero(G)

12José Salinas 15Ángel Recio 20F. Calero Villa 31Rafita

18Pablo Martínez 8Carlos Dotor 23Izan Merino 10David Larrubia

9Chupe 21Adrián Niño

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Real Betis No reported absences

Malaga No reported absences

Total impact vs full squads

Real Betis+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Malaga+0.0 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Real Betis · Home 2.40points per game · 5 home games

W-D-L: 4-0-1
Scored: 2.00
Conceded: 1.40

Malaga · Away 0.25points per game · 4 away games

W-D-L: 0-1-3
Scored: 0.25
Conceded: 2.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 6 this season

Opponent	Real Betis	Malaga
Deportivo La Coruna	D 1–1 A	D 1–1 H
Getafe	W 1–0 H	L 0–1 A
Villarreal	W 2–1 A	L 1–3 H
Real Madrid	W 1–0 H	L 0–4 A
Levante	L 2–5 A	D 0–0 H
Real Sociedad	W 1–0 H	L 2–5 H
Points	13 of 18 · 2.17 per game	2 of 18 · 0.33 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	Real Betis	Malaga	Forecast
Scored per game	1.78	0.67
Conceded per game	1.56	2.00
Match goals	3.33	2.67	3.60
Over 1.5	56%	78%
Over 2.5	44%	33%	70%
Over 3.5	33%	33%
Both teams scored	56%	56%	58%
Clean sheets	44%	11%
Failed to score	0%	44%
Games	9	9

	Real Betis	Malaga	Forecast
Scored per game	2.10	0.67
Conceded per game	1.80	2.00
Match goals	3.90	2.67	3.60
Over 1.5	70%	78%
Over 2.5	60%	33%	70%
Over 3.5	50%	33%
Both teams scored	70%	56%	58%
Clean sheets	30%	11%
Failed to score	0%	44%
Games	10	9

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Real Betis	Malaga	League
Corners
Corners won	4.78	5.56
Corners conceded	6.44	4.89
Match total	11.22	10.45	9.91
Over 8.5	78% 7/9	78% 7/9
Over 9.5	67% 6/9	67% 6/9
Over 10.5	56% 5/9	44% 4/9
Cards
Cards	1.67	2.44
Opponent cards	2.67	2.33
Match total	4.34	4.77	4.73
Over 3.5	56% 5/9	67% 6/9
Over 4.5	56% 5/9	67% 6/9

	Real Betis	Malaga	League
Corners
Corners won	4.90	5.70
Corners conceded	5.90	5.10
Match total	10.80	10.80	9.91
Over 8.5	70% 7/10	80% 8/10
Over 9.5	70% 7/10	70% 7/10
Over 10.5	50% 5/10	50% 5/10
Cards
Cards	1.90	2.60
Opponent cards	2.60	2.30
Match total	4.50	4.90	4.73
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	60% 6/10	70% 7/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.