La Liga Gameweek 11 Sat, Oct 31 · 20:00 Estadi Olímpic Lluís Companys, Barcelona
Barcelona 1st · 27 pts · 9 played
VS— Compare
Alaves 7th · 11 pts · 9 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

Barcelona are clear favourites.

Barcelona are the stronger side on L90 Strength (93 vs 48). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Barcelona. Barcelona have 6 days of rest, Alaves 8 and have to travel 430 km. Conditions look neutral.

Away travel430 kmRest days6 · 8Matches / 14d2 · 2
Barcelona90%
Draw7%
Alaves3%
Expected goals 3.78 – 0.71
Barcelona82%
Draw13%
Alaves6%
Expected goals 2.80 – 0.64
Barcelona90%
Draw7%
Alaves3%
Expected goals 3.78 – 0.71
Barcelona85%
Draw10%
Alaves5%
Expected goals 3.37 – 0.80
Barcelona89%
Draw8%
Alaves3%
Expected goals 3.77 – 0.76
Over 2.5 83% Both score 50% Likeliest score 3–0
EloLambda forecast, updated 2 hours ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Barcelona)
16°CDrizzle
  • Precipitation 12%
  • Wind 7 km/h
  • Humidity 93%
Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Barcelona and Alaves. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

BarcelonaAlaves
93 L90 StrengthIn forecast 48
93 Current StrengthIn forecast 48
97 AttackIn forecast 48
92 DefenceIn forecast 55
96 Form indexContext 14
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Barcelona

Attack+3%
Defense risk−11%

Alaves

Attack−37%
Defense risk+128%

Changes versus each team's league-average baseline. Higher attack and lower defense risk are favorable.

Playing style

BarcelonaAlaves
4.33 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.44
1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.11
3.73 xGVia Att/Def 1.24
0.98 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.22
+0.60 Goals minus xGContext +0.20
100% Scored inContext 78%
44% Clean sheetsContext 33%
21.11 ShotsContext 12.78
8.44 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.38
40% On target shareContext 37%
14.56 Shots in the boxContext 8.88
70% Box shareContext 62%
21% ConversionContext 11%
3.11 OffsidesContext 3.88
6.78 Shots allowedContext 12.33
3.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.33
1.60 BlocksContext 4.50
2.43 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.22
68% Save rateContext 74%
70% PossessionIn forecast 42%
697 PassesContext 340
632 Accurate passesContext 270
91% Pass accuracyContext 80%
7.42 Team ratingContext 6.84
9.67 FoulsContext 13.67
10.22 Fouls sufferedContext 13.33
1.33 Yellow cardsContext 1.67
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.11
This league season, per match · 9 and 9 games
4.30 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.40
1.10 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20
3.55 xGVia Att/Def 1.28
0.95 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.23
+0.75 Goals minus xGContext +0.12
100% Scored inContext 80%
30% Clean sheetsContext 30%
22.40 ShotsContext 13.40
8.90 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.00
40% On target shareContext 40%
15.00 Shots in the boxContext 9.11
67% Box shareContext 61%
19% ConversionContext 10%
3.30 OffsidesContext 3.78
6.30 Shots allowedContext 12.60
3.44 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.60
1.43 BlocksContext 4.22
2.25 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.40
64% Save rateContext 74%
72% PossessionIn forecast 43%
712 PassesContext 341
651 Accurate passesContext 271
91% Pass accuracyContext 80%
7.38 Team ratingContext 6.84
9.50 FoulsContext 13.60
10.20 Fouls sufferedContext 13.40
1.30 Yellow cardsContext 1.80
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Barcelona
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,660 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Form 96 · 15 pts vs 6.1 for an average club · +3.0 vs expected
  • W17 OctA · Real Betis5–22.1 xPts
  • W13 OctA · Galatasaray4–12.1 xPts
  • W10 OctH · Getafe3–02.7 xPts
  • W19 SepA · Sevilla3–12.3 xPts
  • W16 SepH · Racing Santander7–22.7 xPts
Alaves
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel430 km1,001 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Form 14 · 1 pts vs 6.0 for an average club · -6.0 vs expected
  • L18 OctA · Celta Vigo1–21.3 xPts
  • L10 OctH · Atletico Madrid1–21.2 xPts
  • D19 SepA · Athletic Club0–01.1 xPts
  • L15 SepH · Valencia0–11.9 xPts
  • L12 SepA · Racing Santander1–21.5 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Barcelona Alaves
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 5Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match6La Liga 2026-2027, 25 Oct8La Liga 2026-2027, 23 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km430 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways1,660 km1,001 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 2 / 50 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one36

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Barcelona Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Real Betis (A) 5–2, 17 Oct
1Joan García(G)
12Xavi Espart 18Gerard Martín 5Pau Cubarsí 23J. Koundé
8Pedri 16Rodri
14K. Adeyemi 7Fermín López 10Lamine Yamal
9G. de Jesus
Alaves Last XI · not confirmed
5-3-2 · vs Celta Vigo (A) 1–2, 18 Oct
1Antonio Sivera(G)
21A. Rebbach 2N. Valentini 16V. Koski 17Jonny 14F. Tenaglia
10Carles Aleñá 8Antonio Blanco 19Pablo Ibáñez
15L. Boyé 11Toni Martínez

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Barcelona No reported absences
Alaves No reported absences
Total impact vs full squads
  • Barcelona+0.0 pp
  • Draw+0.0 pp
  • Alaves+0.0 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Barcelona · Home 3.00points per game · 4 home games
W-D-L
4-0-0
Scored
4.25
Conceded
1.00
Alaves · Away 0.50points per game · 4 away games
W-D-L
0-2-2
Scored
0.75
Conceded
1.25

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 5 this season

OpponentBarcelonaAlaves
Getafe W 3–0 H W 3–0 H
Racing Santander W 7–2 H L 1–2 A
Valencia W 5–0 A L 0–1 H
Rayo Vallecano W 5–2 H D 1–1 A
Athletic Club W 2–0 H D 0–0 A
Points15 of 15 · 3.00 per game5 of 15 · 1.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings

7 Barcelona wins2 draws1 Alaves wins
Goals per game2.00 – 0.70 Over 2.550% Both scored60% Clean sheets30% · 10%
  • 13 May 2026Alaves1–0Barcelona
  • 29 Nov 2025Barcelona3–1Alaves
  • 2 Feb 2025Barcelona1–0Alaves
  • 6 Oct 2024Alaves0–3Barcelona
  • 3 Feb 2024Alaves1–3Barcelona
  • 12 Nov 2023Barcelona2–1Alaves

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

BarcelonaAlavesForecast
Scored per game 4.331.44
Conceded per game 1.001.11
Match goals 5.332.56 4.49
Over 1.5 100%67%
Over 2.5 89%56% 83%
Over 3.5 78%11%
Both teams scored 56%56% 50%
Clean sheets 44%33%
Failed to score 0%22%
Games99
BarcelonaAlavesForecast
Scored per game 4.301.40
Conceded per game 1.101.20
Match goals 5.402.60 4.49
Over 1.5 100%70%
Over 2.5 90%60% 83%
Over 3.5 80%10%
Both teams scored 70%60% 50%
Clean sheets 30%30%
Failed to score 0%20%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

BarcelonaAlavesLeague
Corners
Corners won6.004.29
Corners conceded2.885.14
Match total8.889.439.91
Over 8.538% 3/843% 3/7
Over 9.538% 3/843% 3/7
Over 10.538% 3/829% 2/7
Cards
Cards1.331.78
Opponent cards1.782.33
Match total3.114.114.73
Over 3.544% 4/956% 5/9
Over 4.533% 3/933% 3/9
BarcelonaAlavesLeague
Corners
Corners won6.335.00
Corners conceded2.445.13
Match total8.7710.139.91
Over 8.533% 3/950% 4/8
Over 9.533% 3/950% 4/8
Over 10.533% 3/938% 3/8
Cards
Cards1.301.90
Opponent cards1.802.40
Match total3.104.304.73
Over 3.540% 4/1060% 6/10
Over 4.530% 3/1040% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Barcelona9 games · scored 39 · conceded 9
6 1 0-15
7 3 16-30
5 31-45
5 2 46-60
7 1 61-75
9 2 76-90
Alaves9 games · scored 13 · conceded 10
0-15
2 16-30
3 2 31-45
1 4 46-60
2 2 61-75
5 2 76-90
Barcelona10 games · scored 43 · conceded 11
6 1 0-15
8 4 16-30
5 31-45
8 2 46-60
6 1 61-75
10 3 76-90
Alaves10 games · scored 14 · conceded 12
1 0-15
2 16-30
3 2 31-45
1 4 46-60
2 3 61-75
5 3 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Beta

Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.

Next fixtures La Liga

View all fixtures →
Villarreal Espanyol Oct 3020:00 Levante Atletico Madrid Oct 3113:00 Rayo Vallecano Celta Vigo Oct 3115:15 Real Betis Malaga Oct 3117:30 Barcelona Alaves Oct 3120:00 Getafe Sevilla Nov 113:00 Racing Santander Real Madrid Nov 115:15 Elche Valencia Nov 117:30 Athletic Club Real Sociedad Nov 120:00 Deportivo La Coruna Osasuna Nov 220:00