La Liga Gameweek 11 Sat, Oct 31 · 15:15 Estadio de Vallecas, Madrid
Rayo Vallecano 13th · 9 pts · 8 played
VS— Compare
Celta Vigo 8th · 11 pts · 9 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

Rayo Vallecano are slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Rayo Vallecano. Rayo Vallecano have 7.1 days of rest, Celta Vigo 6 and have to travel 465 km. Conditions look neutral.

Away travel465 kmRest days7.1 · 6Matches / 14d2 · 3
Rayo Vallecano48%
Draw26%
Celta Vigo25%
Expected goals 1.57 – 1.08
Rayo Vallecano46%
Draw26%
Celta Vigo27%
Expected goals 1.56 – 1.15
Rayo Vallecano48%
Draw26%
Celta Vigo25%
Expected goals 1.57 – 1.08
Rayo Vallecano41%
Draw27%
Celta Vigo32%
Expected goals 1.40 – 1.21
Rayo Vallecano49%
Draw25%
Celta Vigo26%
Expected goals 1.68 – 1.16
Over 2.5 49% Both score 53% Likeliest score 1–1
EloLambda forecast, updated 7 hours ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Madrid)
21°COvercast
  • Precipitation 3%
  • Wind 2 km/h
  • Humidity 44%
Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Rayo Vallecano and Celta Vigo. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

Rayo VallecanoCelta Vigo
58 L90 StrengthIn forecast 54
58 Current StrengthIn forecast 54
61 AttackIn forecast 36
60 DefenceIn forecast 61
66 Form indexContext 47
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Rayo Vallecano

Attack−1%
Defense risk−17%

Celta Vigo

Attack+2%
Defense risk−1%

Changes versus each team's league-average baseline. Higher attack and lower defense risk are favorable.

Playing style

Rayo VallecanoCelta Vigo
1.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.11
2.13 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.78
1.39 xGVia Att/Def 0.92
1.62 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.18
+0.11 Goals minus xGContext +0.19
100% Scored inContext 56%
0% Clean sheetsContext 44%
14.38 ShotsContext 9.44
4.63 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.63
32% On target shareContext 34%
7.13 Shots in the boxContext 4.67
55% Box shareContext 47%
10% ConversionContext 12%
2.00 OffsidesContext 3.00
15.88 Shots allowedContext 13.33
5.38 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.33
4.00 BlocksContext 3.44
3.25 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.44
61% Save rateContext 80%
51% PossessionIn forecast 50%
406 PassesContext 506
334 Accurate passesContext 438
82% Pass accuracyContext 87%
6.72 Team ratingContext 6.87
12.88 FoulsContext 12.22
13.00 Fouls sufferedContext 14.44
2.50 Yellow cardsContext 1.67
0.25 Red cardsContext 0.11
This league season, per match · 8 and 9 games
1.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.10
1.90 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00
1.30 xGVia Att/Def 0.99
1.72 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.16
+0.10 Goals minus xGContext +0.11
90% Scored inContext 60%
0% Clean sheetsContext 30%
14.00 ShotsContext 10.40
4.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.67
32% On target shareContext 32%
6.80 Shots in the boxContext 5.50
52% Box shareContext 50%
10% ConversionContext 11%
2.00 OffsidesContext 3.00
15.70 Shots allowedContext 14.50
5.70 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.80
4.30 BlocksContext 3.80
3.80 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.70
67% Save rateContext 77%
52% PossessionIn forecast 49%
403 PassesContext 497
331 Accurate passesContext 431
82% Pass accuracyContext 87%
6.77 Team ratingContext 6.82
13.20 FoulsContext 11.90
13.30 Fouls sufferedContext 13.60
2.90 Yellow cardsContext 1.50
0.20 Red cardsContext 0.10
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Rayo Vallecano
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km25 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 66 · 8 pts vs 6.1 for an average club · +1.6 vs expected
  • D19 OctA · Getafe1–11.4 xPts
  • D19 SepA · Osasuna1–11.3 xPts
  • W15 SepH · Espanyol2–11.7 xPts
  • L12 SepA · Real Madrid1–40.4 xPts
  • W5 SepH · Racing Santander3–21.7 xPts
Celta Vigo
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel465 km3,099 km in 14d
Schedule load31%Moderate
Form 47 · 7 pts vs 7.3 for an average club · +0.3 vs expected
  • W18 OctH · Alaves2–11.5 xPts
  • L15 OctH · Juventus1–21.2 xPts
  • D11 OctA · Elche0–01.2 xPts
  • W19 SepH · Racing Santander5–01.5 xPts
  • L16 SepA · Omonia Nicosia0–11.4 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Rayo Vallecano Celta Vigo
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Moderate · 31
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match7.1La Liga 2026-2027, 24 Oct6La Liga 2026-2027, 25 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km465 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways25 km3,099 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days0 / 2 / 31 / 3 / 5
Next matchdays after this one85.2

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Rayo Vallecano Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Getafe (A) 1–1, 19 Oct
25E. Audero(G)
17Adrià Pedrosa 15Mujaid Sadick 24F. Lejeune 20I. Balliu
6P. Ciss 8Unai López
18Álvaro García 10Sergio Camello 7Isi Palazón
19Jorge de Frutos
Celta Vigo Last XI · not confirmed
3-4-3 · vs Alaves (H) 2–1, 18 Oct
13I. Radu(G)
21S. Cáceres 18Yoel Lago 20Javi Rodríguez
23Hugo Álvarez 6I. Moriba 30H. Burcio 5Sergio Carreira
19W. Swedberg 9Ferran Jutglà 24C. Driouech

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Rayo Vallecano No reported absences
Celta Vigo No reported absences
Total impact vs full squads
  • Rayo Vallecano+0.0 pp
  • Draw+0.0 pp
  • Celta Vigo+0.0 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Rayo Vallecano · Home 2.33points per game · 3 home games
W-D-L
2-1-0
Scored
2.00
Conceded
1.33
Celta Vigo · Away 1.00points per game · 4 away games
W-D-L
0-4-0
Scored
0.25
Conceded
0.25

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 4 this season

OpponentRayo VallecanoCelta Vigo
Getafe D 1–1 A D 1–1 A
Osasuna D 1–1 A L 1–2 H
Racing Santander W 3–2 H W 5–0 H
Alaves D 1–1 H W 2–1 H
Points6 of 12 · 1.50 per game7 of 12 · 1.75 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings

2 Rayo Vallecano wins5 draws3 Celta Vigo wins
Goals per game0.50 – 1.10 Over 2.540% Both scored30% Clean sheets40% · 70%
  • 18 Jan 2026Celta Vigo3–0Rayo Vallecano
  • 21 Sep 2025Rayo Vallecano1–1Celta Vigo
  • 18 May 2025Celta Vigo1–2Rayo Vallecano
  • 10 Jan 2025Rayo Vallecano2–1Celta Vigo
  • 31 Mar 2024Celta Vigo0–0Rayo Vallecano
  • 11 Dec 2023Rayo Vallecano0–0Celta Vigo

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

Rayo VallecanoCelta VigoForecast
Scored per game 1.501.11
Conceded per game 2.130.78
Match goals 3.631.89 2.65
Over 1.5 100%67%
Over 2.5 63%33% 49%
Over 3.5 38%11%
Both teams scored 100%44% 53%
Clean sheets 0%44%
Failed to score 0%44%
Games89
Rayo VallecanoCelta VigoForecast
Scored per game 1.601.10
Conceded per game 1.801.00
Match goals 3.402.10 2.65
Over 1.5 100%70%
Over 2.5 60%40% 49%
Over 3.5 30%10%
Both teams scored 90%50% 53%
Clean sheets 10%30%
Failed to score 0%40%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

Rayo VallecanoCelta VigoLeague
Corners
Corners won5.633.13
Corners conceded6.384.75
Match total12.017.889.91
Over 8.563% 5/825% 2/8
Over 9.563% 5/825% 2/8
Over 10.563% 5/825% 2/8
Cards
Cards2.751.78
Opponent cards2.502.11
Match total5.253.894.73
Over 3.563% 5/844% 4/9
Over 4.563% 5/844% 4/9
Rayo VallecanoCelta VigoLeague
Corners
Corners won5.103.67
Corners conceded6.505.22
Match total11.608.899.91
Over 8.560% 6/1033% 3/9
Over 9.560% 6/1033% 3/9
Over 10.560% 6/1033% 3/9
Cards
Cards3.101.60
Opponent cards2.601.90
Match total5.703.504.73
Over 3.570% 7/1040% 4/10
Over 4.570% 7/1030% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Rayo Vallecano8 games · scored 12 · conceded 17
4 2 0-15
2 5 16-30
1 1 31-45
5 4 46-60
1 61-75
4 76-90
Celta Vigo9 games · scored 10 · conceded 7
1 0-15
3 16-30
3 31-45
2 1 46-60
2 1 61-75
2 2 76-90
Rayo Vallecano10 games · scored 14 · conceded 19
4 3 0-15
2 5 16-30
1 1 31-45
5 5 46-60
1 1 61-75
1 4 76-90
Celta Vigo10 games · scored 11 · conceded 10
1 0-15
1 3 16-30
3 31-45
2 2 46-60
2 1 61-75
2 4 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Beta

Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.

Next fixtures La Liga

View all fixtures →
Villarreal Espanyol Oct 3020:00 Levante Atletico Madrid Oct 3113:00 Rayo Vallecano Celta Vigo Oct 3115:15 Real Betis Malaga Oct 3117:30 Barcelona Alaves Oct 3120:00 Getafe Sevilla Nov 113:00 Racing Santander Real Madrid Nov 115:15 Elche Valencia Nov 117:30 Athletic Club Real Sociedad Nov 120:00 Deportivo La Coruna Osasuna Nov 220:00