La Liga Gameweek 11 Sun, Nov 1 · 13:00 Estadio Coliseum, Getafe
Getafe 14th · 9 pts · 9 played
VS— Compare
Sevilla 6th · 14 pts · 9 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

It looks too close to call.

The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Sevilla. Getafe have 7 days of rest, Sevilla 5.7 and have to travel 378 km. Conditions look neutral.

Away travel378 kmRest days7 · 5.7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Getafe38%
Draw30%
Sevilla32%
Expected goals 1.20 – 1.09
Getafe43%
Draw27%
Sevilla30%
Expected goals 1.48 – 1.21
Getafe38%
Draw30%
Sevilla32%
Expected goals 1.20 – 1.09
Getafe31%
Draw30%
Sevilla39%
Expected goals 1.07 – 1.22
Getafe39%
Draw28%
Sevilla33%
Expected goals 1.37 – 1.23
Over 2.5 40% Both score 47% Likeliest score 1–1
EloLambda forecast, updated 6 hours ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Getafe)
16°COvercast
  • Precipitation 9%
  • Wind 17 km/h
  • Humidity 41%
Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Getafe and Sevilla. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

GetafeSevilla
49 L90 StrengthIn forecast 50
48 Current StrengthIn forecast 50
27 AttackIn forecast 48
59 DefenceIn forecast 57
42 Form indexContext 67
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Getafe

Attack+2%
Defense risk−11%

Sevilla

Attack−4%
Defense risk−26%

Changes versus each team's league-average baseline. Higher attack and lower defense risk are favorable.

Playing style

GetafeSevilla
0.56 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.56
1.22 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.78
0.62 xGVia Att/Def 1.05
1.49 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.47
-0.06 Goals minus xGContext +0.51
56% Scored inContext 100%
22% Clean sheetsContext 22%
10.78 ShotsContext 11.78
2.67 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.33
25% On target shareContext 37%
5.44 Shots in the boxContext 7.44
48% Box shareContext 61%
5% ConversionContext 13%
2.17 OffsidesContext 2.14
15.22 Shots allowedContext 12.67
4.89 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.63
4.78 BlocksContext 3.29
3.56 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.38
73% Save rateContext 60%
37% PossessionIn forecast 41%
292 PassesContext 344
217 Accurate passesContext 267
74% Pass accuracyContext 78%
6.68 Team ratingContext 6.74
14.00 FoulsContext 14.67
12.78 Fouls sufferedContext 12.89
3.44 Yellow cardsContext 3.00
0.11 Red cardsContext 0.22
This league season, per match · 9 and 9 games
0.60 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.40
1.10 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.70
0.58 xGVia Att/Def 1.03
1.39 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.48
+0.02 Goals minus xGContext +0.37
60% Scored inContext 90%
30% Clean sheetsContext 20%
10.30 ShotsContext 11.50
2.70 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.10
26% On target shareContext 36%
5.20 Shots in the boxContext 7.10
48% Box shareContext 59%
6% ConversionContext 12%
2.00 OffsidesContext 2.13
14.80 Shots allowedContext 12.60
4.90 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.33
4.50 BlocksContext 3.00
3.70 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.22
76% Save rateContext 60%
38% PossessionIn forecast 42%
289 PassesContext 353
214 Accurate passesContext 278
74% Pass accuracyContext 79%
6.73 Team ratingContext 6.72
14.30 FoulsContext 15.20
13.50 Fouls sufferedContext 12.70
3.20 Yellow cardsContext 2.80
0.10 Red cardsContext 0.20
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Getafe
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km671 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 42 · 5 pts vs 5.9 for an average club · -0.3 vs expected
  • D19 OctH · Rayo Vallecano1–11.3 xPts
  • L10 OctA · Barcelona0–30.2 xPts
  • W20 SepH · Malaga1–01.5 xPts
  • L17 SepA · Real Betis0–10.8 xPts
  • D13 SepH · Deportivo La Coruna1–11.4 xPts
Sevilla
Rest5.7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel378 km781 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Form 67 · 7 pts vs 5.0 for an average club · +2.1 vs expected
  • L18 OctA · Real Madrid1–40.4 xPts
  • D12 OctA · Levante3–31.2 xPts
  • L19 SepH · Barcelona1–30.5 xPts
  • W16 SepA · Deportivo La Coruna1–01.2 xPts
  • W11 SepH · Valencia1–01.7 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Getafe Sevilla
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match7La Liga 2026-2027, 25 Oct5.7La Liga 2026-2027, 26 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km378 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways671 km781 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 2 / 31 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one7.25.3

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Getafe Last XI · not confirmed
4-4-2 · vs Rayo Vallecano (H) 1–1, 19 Oct
13David Soria(G)
22J. Mojica 26J. Valou 2D. Dakonam
10M. Satriano 6Mario Martín 8N. Gudelj 17Kiko Femenía
19E. Ünal 11Ramon Terrats
Sevilla Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Real Madrid (A) 1–4, 18 Oct
1O. Vlachodimos(G)
17G. Suazo 4Kike Salas 5A. López Gallo 2Juan Iglesias
24Y. Fofana 6L. Agoumé
20Félix Correia 10Peque Fernández 11R. Vargas
9R. Ure

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Getafe No reported absences
Sevilla No reported absences
Total impact vs full squads
  • Getafe+0.0 pp
  • Draw+0.0 pp
  • Sevilla+0.0 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Getafe · Home 1.80points per game · 5 home games
W-D-L
2-3-0
Scored
1.00
Conceded
0.60
Sevilla · Away 1.60points per game · 5 away games
W-D-L
2-2-1
Scored
1.80
Conceded
1.80

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 3 this season

OpponentGetafeSevilla
Rayo Vallecano D 1–1 H W 2–1 H
Barcelona L 0–3 A L 1–3 H
Deportivo La Coruna D 1–1 H W 1–0 A
Points2 of 9 · 0.67 per game6 of 9 · 2.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 12 meetings

3 Getafe wins1 draws6 Sevilla wins
Goals per game0.80 – 0.80 Over 2.530% Both scored20% Clean sheets30% · 60%
  • 22 Feb 2026Getafe0–1Sevilla
  • 25 Aug 2025Sevilla1–2Getafe
  • 1 Feb 2025Getafe0–0Sevilla
  • 14 Sep 2024Sevilla1–0Getafe
  • 30 Mar 2024Getafe0–1Sevilla
  • 16 Dec 2023Sevilla0–3Getafe

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

GetafeSevillaForecast
Scored per game 0.561.56
Conceded per game 1.221.78
Match goals 1.783.33 2.29
Over 1.5 56%78%
Over 2.5 22%67% 40%
Over 3.5 0%56%
Both teams scored 33%78% 47%
Clean sheets 22%22%
Failed to score 44%0%
Games99
GetafeSevillaForecast
Scored per game 0.601.40
Conceded per game 1.101.70
Match goals 1.703.10 2.29
Over 1.5 50%70%
Over 2.5 20%60% 40%
Over 3.5 0%50%
Both teams scored 30%70% 47%
Clean sheets 30%20%
Failed to score 40%10%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

GetafeSevillaLeague
Corners
Corners won4.333.00
Corners conceded6.003.56
Match total10.336.569.91
Over 8.556% 5/922% 2/9
Over 9.556% 5/922% 2/9
Over 10.544% 4/911% 1/9
Cards
Cards3.893.33
Opponent cards2.562.11
Match total6.455.444.73
Over 3.5100% 9/978% 7/9
Over 4.578% 7/956% 5/9
GetafeSevillaLeague
Corners
Corners won4.103.00
Corners conceded5.803.60
Match total9.906.609.91
Over 8.550% 5/1020% 2/10
Over 9.550% 5/1020% 2/10
Over 10.540% 4/1010% 1/10
Cards
Cards3.603.10
Opponent cards2.502.00
Match total6.105.104.73
Over 3.590% 9/1070% 7/10
Over 4.570% 7/1050% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Getafe9 games · scored 5 · conceded 11
2 0-15
1 1 16-30
2 31-45
1 1 46-60
1 2 61-75
2 3 76-90
Sevilla9 games · scored 14 · conceded 16
2 2 0-15
1 3 16-30
2 31-45
5 2 46-60
1 3 61-75
5 4 76-90
Getafe10 games · scored 6 · conceded 11
2 0-15
1 1 16-30
2 31-45
2 1 46-60
1 2 61-75
2 3 76-90
Sevilla10 games · scored 14 · conceded 17
2 2 0-15
1 3 16-30
2 31-45
5 3 46-60
1 3 61-75
5 4 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Beta

Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.

Next fixtures La Liga

View all fixtures →
Villarreal Espanyol Oct 3020:00 Levante Atletico Madrid Oct 3113:00 Rayo Vallecano Celta Vigo Oct 3115:15 Real Betis Malaga Oct 3117:30 Barcelona Alaves Oct 3120:00 Getafe Sevilla Nov 113:00 Racing Santander Real Madrid Nov 115:15 Elche Valencia Nov 117:30 Athletic Club Real Sociedad Nov 120:00 Deportivo La Coruna Osasuna Nov 220:00