Villarreal
Attack+8%
Defense risk−19%
Our take
Villarreal are clear favourites.
Villarreal are the stronger side on L90 Strength (67 vs 44). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Villarreal. Villarreal have 6.1 days of rest, Espanyol 6.2 and have to travel 242 km. Conditions look neutral.
Away travel242 kmRest days6.1 · 6.2Matches / 14d3 · 2
Villarreal65%
Draw21%
Espanyol15%
Villarreal58%
Draw24%
Espanyol19%
Villarreal65%
Draw21%
Espanyol15%
Villarreal57%
Draw23%
Espanyol19%
Villarreal65%
Draw20%
Espanyol15%
Over 2.5 58%
Both score 53%
Likeliest score 2–0
EloLambda forecast, updated 3 minutes ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Villarreal)
17°CPartly cloudy
- Precipitation 7%
- Wind 6 km/h
- Humidity 91%
Referee—Not appointed yet
Key insights
Automatic descriptive highlights for Villarreal and Espanyol. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.
Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.
xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.
Headlines
-
Insight
Villarreal
+0.82
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for2.12xG against1.30
-
Trend
Villarreal
70%
Both teams scored
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored -
Alert
Villarreal
1.7
Goals conceded away per match
Last 6 recorded away matches
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Trend
Espanyol
67%
Both teams scored
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored
Attack
-
Insight
Villarreal
+0.82
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for2.12xG against1.30
-
Trend
Villarreal
1.6
Goals scored per match
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
-
Trend
Villarreal
70%
Both teams scored
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored -
Trend
Espanyol
67%
Both teams scored
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored
Defence
Streaks
Not enough recorded data for this category yet.
Team strength
VillarrealEspanyol
67
L90 StrengthIn forecast
44
65
Current StrengthIn forecast
44
76
AttackIn forecast
36
73
DefenceIn forecast
51
79
Form indexContext
31
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisEspanyol
Attack−12%
Defense risk+23%
Changes versus each team's league-average baseline. Higher attack and lower defense risk are favorable.
Playing style
VillarrealEspanyol
1.44
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.22
1.44
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.33
2.13
xGVia Att/Def
1.14
1.13
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.28
-0.69
Goals minus xGContext
+0.08
67%
Scored inContext
89%
11%
Clean sheetsContext
22%
16.33
ShotsContext
12.67
6.33
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.67
39%
On target shareContext
29%
11.11
Shots in the boxContext
7.33
68%
Box shareContext
57%
9%
ConversionContext
10%
2.89
OffsidesContext
3.50
12.00
Shots allowedContext
13.11
3.44
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.75
5.14
BlocksContext
3.00
3.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.71
77%
Save rateContext
75%
60%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
573
PassesContext
376
510
Accurate passesContext
305
89%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.87
Team ratingContext
6.78
11.11
FoulsContext
16.00
11.67
Fouls sufferedContext
10.44
1.78
Yellow cardsContext
3.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.11
1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
2.12
xGVia Att/Def
1.26
1.30
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.30
-0.52
Goals minus xGContext
-0.06
70%
Scored inContext
90%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
16.50
ShotsContext
13.10
6.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.10
36%
On target shareContext
31%
11.00
Shots in the boxContext
7.50
67%
Box shareContext
57%
10%
ConversionContext
9%
2.90
OffsidesContext
3.14
12.00
Shots allowedContext
12.70
3.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.56
4.63
BlocksContext
2.78
3.29
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.38
72%
Save rateContext
73%
59%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
560
PassesContext
379
493
Accurate passesContext
308
88%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.86
Team ratingContext
6.80
10.40
FoulsContext
15.50
12.10
Fouls sufferedContext
11.10
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
2.80
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Villarreal
WWLWD
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km3,141 km in 14d
Schedule load25%Moderate
Form 79 · 10 pts vs 6.2 for an average club · +2.2 vs expected
Espanyol
WLLDL
Rest6.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel242 km1,075 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 31 · 4 pts vs 6.2 for an average club · -1.7 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Villarreal |
Espanyol |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Moderate · 25 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.1La Liga 2026-2027, 24 Oct | 6.2La Liga 2026-2027, 24 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 242 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 3,141 km | 1,075 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 3 / 5 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4 | 7.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Villarreal
Last XI · not confirmed
25P. Gulácsi(G)
23Sergi Cardona
2Logan Costa
8J. Foyth
3A. Freeman
10Alberto Moleiro
16Carlos Macia
14Santi Comesaña
11I. Akhomach
21T. Oluwaseyi
22Ayoze Pérez
Espanyol
Last XI · not confirmed
1Ángel Fortuño(G)
21Roger Hinojo
6L. Cabrera
5C. Riedel
16V. Drkušić
23O. El Hilali
15Bryan Zaragoza
10Pol Lozano
8Edu Expósito
28Javi Hernández
9R. Fernández Jaén
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Villarreal
No reported absences
Espanyol
No reported absences
Total impact vs full squads
- Villarreal+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Espanyol+0.0 pp
From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.
Home / Away this season
Villarreal · Home
1.00points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-2
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 1.50
Espanyol · Away
1.00points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-2
- Scored
- 1.25
- Conceded
- 1.25
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 5 this season
| Opponent | Villarreal | Espanyol |
|---|---|---|
| Elche | D 0–0 H | L 1–3 H |
| Real Madrid | L 0–1 A | L 1–2 H |
| Levante | W 3–1 H | W 3–0 H |
| Malaga | W 3–1 A | D 1–1 A |
| Atletico Madrid | D 2–2 A | L 0–1 H |
| Points | 8 of 15 · 1.60 per game | 4 of 15 · 0.80 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
7 Villarreal wins1 draws0 Espanyol wins
Goals per game2.38 – 0.63
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets50% · 13%
- 9 Feb 2026Villarreal4–1Espanyol
- 8 Nov 2025Espanyol0–2Villarreal
- 27 Apr 2025Villarreal1–0Espanyol
- 26 Sep 2024Espanyol1–2Villarreal
- 27 Apr 2023Villarreal4–2Espanyol
- 9 Nov 2022Espanyol0–1Villarreal
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Villarreal | Espanyol | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.44 | 1.22 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.44 | 1.33 | |
| Match goals | 2.89 | 2.56 | 3.03 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 89% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 56% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 56% | 11% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 67% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 11% | 22% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 11% | |
| Games | 9 | 9 |
| Villarreal | Espanyol | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.60 | 1.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 3.10 | 2.50 | 3.03 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 50% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 60% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 70% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Villarreal | Espanyol | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 7.11 | 3.14 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.44 | 5.71 | |
| Match total | 11.55 | 8.85 | 9.91 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 6/9 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 67% 6/9 | 14% 1/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.78 | 3.11 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.00 | 2.89 | |
| Match total | 4.78 | 6.00 | 4.73 |
| Over 3.5 | 78% 7/9 | 89% 8/9 | |
| Over 4.5 | 56% 5/9 | 89% 8/9 | |
| Villarreal | Espanyol | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.50 | 3.13 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.70 | 5.63 | |
| Match total | 11.20 | 8.76 | 9.91 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 60% 6/10 | 13% 1/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 2.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.90 | 2.90 | |
| Match total | 4.60 | 5.80 | 4.73 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Villarreal9 games · scored 13 · conceded 13
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
5
6
31-45
1
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
4
3
76-90
Espanyol9 games · scored 11 · conceded 12
3
3
0-15
2
3
16-30
2
31-45
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
2
5
76-90
Villarreal10 games · scored 16 · conceded 15
2
0-15
4
16-30
3
5
31-45
1
2
46-60
2
1
61-75
6
5
76-90
Espanyol10 games · scored 12 · conceded 13
3
3
0-15
2
4
16-30
2
31-45
1
46-60
2
1
61-75
2
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
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