Racing Santander vs Real Madrid

La Liga Gameweek 11 Sun, Nov 1 · 15:15 Campos de Sport de El Sardinero, Santander

Racing Santander 16th · 8 pts · 9 played WLLDL

VS— Compare

Real Madrid 3rd · 21 pts · 9 played WWLWW

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Real Madrid are clear favourites.

Real Madrid are the stronger side on L90 Strength (89 vs 41). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Real Madrid. Racing Santander have 8 days of rest, Real Madrid 6.8 and have to travel 339 km. Conditions look neutral.

Away travel339 kmRest days8 · 6.8Matches / 14d1 · 3

Racing Santander11%

Draw15%

Real Madrid74%

Expected goals 1.00 – 2.78

Racing Santander14%

Draw21%

Real Madrid65%

Expected goals 0.86 – 2.09

Racing Santander11%

Draw15%

Real Madrid74%

Expected goals 1.00 – 2.78

Racing Santander7%

Draw12%

Real Madrid81%

Expected goals 0.89 – 3.12

Racing Santander10%

Draw14%

Real Madrid75%

Expected goals 1.06 – 2.94

Over 2.5 73% Both score 60% Likeliest score 0–2

EloLambda forecast, updated 7 hours ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Santander)

12°CDrizzle

Precipitation 9%
Wind 28 km/h
Humidity 63%

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Defence

Streaks

Team strength

Racing Santander

Real Madrid

41 L90 StrengthIn forecast 89

41 Current StrengthIn forecast 89

42 AttackIn forecast 89

22 DefenceIn forecast 85

34 Form indexContext 91

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Racing Santander

Attack−28%

Defense risk+53%

Real Madrid

Attack+43%

Defense risk−14%

Changes versus each team's league-average baseline. Higher attack and lower defense risk are favorable.

Playing style

Racing Santander

Real Madrid

1.44 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.56

2.78 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00

1.31 xGVia Att/Def 2.41

2.28 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.01

+0.13 Goals minus xGContext +0.15

67% Scored inContext 89%

0% Clean sheetsContext 22%

11.22 ShotsContext 17.56

4.44 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 7.22

40% On target shareContext 41%

6.38 Shots in the boxContext 12.33

54% Box shareContext 69%

13% ConversionContext 15%

1.78 OffsidesContext 2.13

16.33 Shots allowedContext 12.78

6.67 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.44

3.56 BlocksContext 3.44

5.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.22

61% Save rateContext 73%

50% PossessionIn forecast 53%

437 PassesContext 528

362 Accurate passesContext 476

83% Pass accuracyContext 90%

6.62 Team ratingContext 7.17

13.78 FoulsContext 8.44

14.78 Fouls sufferedContext 14.11

2.67 Yellow cardsContext 2.11

0.11 Red cardsContext 0.22

This league season, per match · 9 and 9 games

1.70 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.70

2.60 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20

1.47 xGVia Att/Def 2.32

2.17 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.06

+0.23 Goals minus xGContext +0.38

70% Scored inContext 90%

0% Clean sheetsContext 20%

12.20 ShotsContext 16.90

4.80 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 7.30

39% On target shareContext 43%

7.56 Shots in the boxContext 12.20

57% Box shareContext 71%

14% ConversionContext 16%

1.80 OffsidesContext 2.00

15.90 Shots allowedContext 14.20

6.30 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.10

3.40 BlocksContext 3.80

4.63 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.80

62% Save rateContext 75%

50% PossessionIn forecast 50%

441 PassesContext 501

367 Accurate passesContext 446

83% Pass accuracyContext 89%

6.70 Team ratingContext 7.13

13.40 FoulsContext 8.90

14.10 Fouls sufferedContext 13.30

2.40 Yellow cardsContext 2.00

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.20

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Racing Santander WLLDL

Rest8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 34 · 4 pts vs 5.8 for an average club · -1.4 vs expected

L18 OctA · Osasuna0–21.1 xPts
D11 OctH · Valencia2–21.6 xPts
L19 SepA · Celta Vigo0–51.2 xPts
L16 SepA · Barcelona2–70.2 xPts
W12 SepH · Alaves2–11.3 xPts

Real Madrid WLWWW

Rest6.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel339 km1,008 km in 14d

Schedule load21%Moderate

Form 91 · 12 pts vs 5.6 for an average club · +1.9 vs expected

W18 OctH · Sevilla4–12.4 xPts
W14 OctA · AS Roma4–31.5 xPts
W10 OctH · Villarreal1–02.1 xPts
L20 SepA · Atletico Madrid1–21.7 xPts
W15 SepA · Elche3–22.3 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Racing Santander	Real Madrid
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Moderate · 21
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	8La Liga 2026-2027, 24 Oct	6.8La Liga 2026-2027, 25 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	339 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	1,008 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 3	1 / 3 / 5
Next matchdays after this one	5.9	3.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Racing Santander Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Osasuna (A) 0–2, 18 Oct

13Julen Agirrezabala(G)

17Jorge Salinas 24J. Belocian 5Pablo Ramón 2Álvaro Mantilla

18M. Prati 23Iván Martín

10Iñigo Vicente 8André Almeida 20Sergio Canales

21M. Zabiri

Real Madrid Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Sevilla (H) 4–1, 18 Oct

1T. Courtois(G)

17Marc Cucurella 4D. Huijsen 16I. Konaté 8F. Valverde

14A. Tchouaméni 15A. Güler

25Y. Diomande 5J. Bellingham 9Endrick

10K. Mbappé

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Racing Santander No reported absences

Real Madrid No reported absences

Total impact vs full squads

Racing Santander+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Real Madrid+0.0 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Racing Santander · Home 2.00points per game · 4 home games

W-D-L: 2-2-0
Scored: 2.25
Conceded: 1.75

Real Madrid · Away 1.50points per game · 4 away games

W-D-L: 2-0-2
Scored: 1.50
Conceded: 1.50

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 3 this season

Opponent	Racing Santander	Real Madrid
Rayo Vallecano	L 2–3 A	W 4–1 H
Elche	W 3–2 H	W 3–2 A
Villarreal	D 2–2 H	W 1–0 H
Points	4 of 9 · 1.33 per game	9 of 9 · 3.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	Racing Santander	Real Madrid	Forecast
Scored per game	1.44	2.56
Conceded per game	2.78	1.00
Match goals	4.22	3.56	3.78
Over 1.5	89%	78%
Over 2.5	78%	78%	73%
Over 3.5	67%	56%
Both teams scored	67%	67%	60%
Clean sheets	0%	22%
Failed to score	33%	11%
Games	9	9

	Racing Santander	Real Madrid	Forecast
Scored per game	1.44	2.70
Conceded per game	2.78	1.20
Match goals	4.22	3.90	3.78
Over 1.5	89%	80%
Over 2.5	78%	80%	73%
Over 3.5	67%	60%
Both teams scored	67%	70%	60%
Clean sheets	0%	20%
Failed to score	33%	10%
Games	9	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Racing Santander	Real Madrid	League
Corners
Corners won	5.25	6.25
Corners conceded	7.00	4.25
Match total	12.25	10.50	9.91
Over 8.5	88% 7/8	63% 5/8
Over 9.5	88% 7/8	63% 5/8
Over 10.5	75% 6/8	63% 5/8
Cards
Cards	2.78	2.33
Opponent cards	2.67	2.67
Match total	5.45	5.00	4.73
Over 3.5	89% 8/9	78% 7/9
Over 4.5	78% 7/9	67% 6/9

	Racing Santander	Real Madrid	League
Corners
Corners won	5.00	6.30
Corners conceded	6.56	5.00
Match total	11.56	11.30	9.91
Over 8.5	78% 7/9	70% 7/10
Over 9.5	78% 7/9	70% 7/10
Over 10.5	67% 6/9	70% 7/10
Cards
Cards	2.50	2.20
Opponent cards	2.40	2.50
Match total	4.90	4.70	4.73
Over 3.5	80% 8/10	80% 8/10
Over 4.5	70% 7/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.