Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam

Eredivisie Gameweek 11 Sun, Nov 1 · 15:45 Euroborg, Groningen

Groningen 7th · 14 pts · 9 played DDWWL

VS— Compare

Sparta Rotterdam 13th · 9 pts · 9 played DLLDW

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Groningen are slight favourites.

Groningen are the stronger side on L90 Strength (30 vs 18). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Sparta Rotterdam. Groningen have 7.1 days of rest, Sparta Rotterdam 7 and have to travel 202 km. Conditions look neutral.

Away travel202 kmRest days7.1 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1

Groningen55%

Draw20%

Sparta Rotterdam25%

Expected goals 2.34 – 1.55

Groningen54%

Draw25%

Sparta Rotterdam22%

Expected goals 1.74 – 1.03

Groningen55%

Draw20%

Sparta Rotterdam25%

Expected goals 2.34 – 1.55

Groningen46%

Draw22%

Sparta Rotterdam32%

Expected goals 2.09 – 1.74

Groningen54%

Draw21%

Sparta Rotterdam25%

Expected goals 2.26 – 1.51

Over 2.5 75% Both score 72% Likeliest score 2–1

EloLambda forecast, updated 6 hours ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Groningen)

8°CDrizzle

Precipitation 29%
Wind 7 km/h
Humidity 95%

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Defence

Streaks

Streak Groningen 9 Scoring in a row Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Scoring in a row

Team strength

Groningen

Sparta Rotterdam

30 L90 StrengthIn forecast 18

30 Current StrengthIn forecast 18

41 AttackIn forecast 32

21 DefenceIn forecast 17

44 Form indexContext 20

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Groningen

Attack+15%

Defense risk−5%

Sparta Rotterdam

Attack+8%

Defense risk+7%

Changes versus each team's league-average baseline. Higher attack and lower defense risk are favorable.

Playing style

Groningen

Sparta Rotterdam

2.44 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.78

2.11 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.44

1.87 xGVia Att/Def 2.12

2.21 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.86

+0.57 Goals minus xGContext -0.34

100% Scored inContext 78%

11% Clean sheetsContext 0%

14.78 ShotsContext 14.56

5.78 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.57

39% On target shareContext 35%

10.38 Shots in the boxContext 10.22

65% Box shareContext 69%

17% ConversionContext 12%

2.00 OffsidesContext 2.67

15.33 Shots allowedContext 17.00

5.89 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.44

4.13 BlocksContext 4.78

3.56 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.88

60% Save rateContext 65%

51% PossessionIn forecast 45%

434 PassesContext 380

355 Accurate passesContext 308

82% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.85 Team ratingContext 6.70

8.89 FoulsContext 10.11

11.11 Fouls sufferedContext 9.89

1.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.67

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 9 and 9 games

2.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.80

2.10 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.50

1.62 xGVia Att/Def 2.05

2.15 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.71

+0.58 Goals minus xGContext -0.25

90% Scored inContext 80%

10% Clean sheetsContext 0%

13.80 ShotsContext 14.80

5.30 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.25

38% On target shareContext 34%

9.44 Shots in the boxContext 10.50

62% Box shareContext 70%

16% ConversionContext 12%

2.00 OffsidesContext 2.50

15.00 Shots allowedContext 16.90

5.80 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.30

4.00 BlocksContext 4.60

3.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.56

60% Save rateContext 62%

49% PossessionIn forecast 46%

425 PassesContext 384

345 Accurate passesContext 311

81% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.81 Team ratingContext 6.70

9.60 FoulsContext 10.10

11.20 Fouls sufferedContext 10.30

1.30 Yellow cardsContext 1.90

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Groningen DDWWL

Rest7.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km321 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 44 · 8 pts vs 8.7 for an average club · +1.3 vs expected

L18 OctH · Ajax2–51.4 xPts
W11 OctA · Excelsior5–11.1 xPts
W18 SepH · PEC Zwolle3–02.0 xPts
D12 SepA · GO Ahead Eagles1–11.1 xPts
D6 SepH · Twente2–21.1 xPts

Sparta Rotterdam DLLDW

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel202 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 20 · 5 pts vs 8.9 for an average club · -1.4 vs expected

W17 OctH · Willem II3–22.0 xPts
D10 OctA · GO Ahead Eagles3–30.9 xPts
L19 SepH · Heerenveen0–41.6 xPts
L13 SepA · PSV Eindhoven1–40.2 xPts
D4 SepH · PEC Zwolle2–21.7 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Groningen	Sparta Rotterdam
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7.1Eredivisie 2026-2027, 25 Oct	7Eredivisie 2026-2027, 25 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	202 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	321 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 3	1 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	7	6.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Groningen Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Ajax (H) 2–5, 18 Oct

1E. Vaessen(G)

33H. Hateboer 5M. Rente 3T. Blokzijl 14J. Schreuders

24P. Clement 8T. de Jonge

11J. Ondrejka 26T. van Bergen 17D. van der Werff

9B. Willumsson

Sparta Rotterdam Last XI · not confirmed

5-4-1 · vs Willem II (H) 3–2, 17 Oct

1M. Brouwer(G)

5B. Kuipers 4R. Martins Indi 6N. Verschuren 3M. Young 2Lushendry Edward Martes

11I. Babadi 10C. Hatenboer 8J. Toornstra 7Robin van Cruijsen

9Milan Zonneveld

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Groningen No reported absences

Sparta Rotterdam No reported absences

Total impact vs full squads

Groningen+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Sparta Rotterdam+0.0 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Groningen · Home 1.40points per game · 5 home games

W-D-L: 2-1-2
Scored: 2.20
Conceded: 2.20

Sparta Rotterdam · Away 1.00points per game · 4 away games

W-D-L: 1-1-2
Scored: 2.00
Conceded: 2.50

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 5 this season

Opponent	Groningen	Sparta Rotterdam
Excelsior	W 5–1 A	L 1–2 A
PEC Zwolle	W 3–0 H	D 2–2 H
GO Ahead Eagles	D 1–1 A	D 3–3 A
PSV Eindhoven	L 1–5 A	L 1–4 A
Utrecht	W 2–1 H	D 3–3 H
Points	10 of 15 · 2.00 per game	3 of 15 · 0.60 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings

1 Groningen wins0 draws3 Sparta Rotterdam wins

Goals per game0.25 – 1.25 Over 2.50% Both scored0% Clean sheets25% · 75%

31 Jan 2026Sparta Rotterdam2–0Groningen
19 Oct 2025Groningen0–2Sparta Rotterdam
2 Feb 2025Sparta Rotterdam1–0Groningen
9 Nov 2024Groningen1–0Sparta Rotterdam

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Groningen	Sparta Rotterdam	Forecast
Scored per game	2.44	1.78
Conceded per game	2.11	2.44
Match goals	4.56	4.22	3.89
Over 1.5	100%	89%
Over 2.5	89%	89%	75%
Over 3.5	67%	78%
Both teams scored	89%	78%	72%
Clean sheets	11%	0%
Failed to score	0%	22%
Games	9	9

	Groningen	Sparta Rotterdam	Forecast
Scored per game	2.40	1.80
Conceded per game	2.00	2.50
Match goals	4.40	4.30	3.89
Over 1.5	100%	90%
Over 2.5	90%	90%	75%
Over 3.5	60%	80%
Both teams scored	90%	80%	72%
Clean sheets	10%	0%
Failed to score	0%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Groningen	Sparta Rotterdam	League
Corners
Corners won	4.89	5.67
Corners conceded	4.56	6.89
Match total	9.45	12.56	10.39
Over 8.5	78% 7/9	89% 8/9
Over 9.5	56% 5/9	78% 7/9
Over 10.5	22% 2/9	67% 6/9
Cards
Cards	1.00	1.67
Opponent cards	1.44	1.11
Match total	2.44	2.78	2.77
Over 3.5	11% 1/9	22% 2/9
Over 4.5	11% 1/9	11% 1/9

	Groningen	Sparta Rotterdam	League
Corners
Corners won	4.89	5.60
Corners conceded	4.56	6.40
Match total	9.45	12.00	10.39
Over 8.5	78% 7/9	80% 8/10
Over 9.5	56% 5/9	70% 7/10
Over 10.5	22% 2/9	60% 6/10
Cards
Cards	1.30	1.90
Opponent cards	1.40	1.00
Match total	2.70	2.90	2.77
Over 3.5	20% 2/10	30% 3/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	10% 1/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.