Cambuur vs PSV Eindhoven

Eredivisie Gameweek 12 Sun, Nov 8 · 15:45 Kooi Stadion, Leeuwarden

Cambuur 14th · 9 pts · 9 played DWDWD

VS— Compare

PSV Eindhoven 3rd · 19 pts · 9 played WWLWL

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

PSV Eindhoven are clear favourites.

PSV Eindhoven are the stronger side on L90 Strength (74 vs 23). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Cambuur. Cambuur have 7.8 days of rest, PSV Eindhoven 3.8 and have to travel 197 km.

Away travel197 kmRest days7.8 · 3.8Matches / 14d1 · 2

Cambuur18%

Draw20%

PSV Eindhoven61%

Expected goals 1.15 – 2.24

Cambuur16%

Draw22%

PSV Eindhoven63%

Expected goals 0.90 – 2.00

Cambuur18%

Draw20%

PSV Eindhoven61%

Expected goals 1.15 – 2.24

Cambuur13%

Draw18%

PSV Eindhoven69%

Expected goals 1.03 – 2.51

Cambuur19%

Draw22%

PSV Eindhoven59%

Expected goals 1.11 – 2.09

Over 2.5 66% Both score 62% Likeliest score 1–2

EloLambda forecast, updated 1 day ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Leeuwarden)

Forecast from 24 Oct

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Defence

Streaks

Team strength

Cambuur

PSV Eindhoven

23 L90 StrengthIn forecast 74

23 Current StrengthIn forecast 71

22 AttackIn forecast 60

23 DefenceIn forecast 64

51 Form indexContext 32

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Cambuur

Attack−29%

Defense risk+41%

PSV Eindhoven

Attack+6%

Defense risk−13%

Changes versus each team's league-average baseline. Higher attack and lower defense risk are favorable.

Playing style

Cambuur

PSV Eindhoven

1.44 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 3.00

2.33 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.33

1.19 xGVia Att/Def 2.43

2.03 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.91

+0.25 Goals minus xGContext +0.57

89% Scored inContext 100%

22% Clean sheetsContext 11%

11.89 ShotsContext 19.44

4.44 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 7.11

37% On target shareContext 37%

8.33 Shots in the boxContext 13.44

71% Box shareContext 71%

12% ConversionContext 15%

2.00 OffsidesContext 2.00

14.78 Shots allowedContext 10.89

5.67 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.44

4.00 BlocksContext 3.29

3.88 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.25

63% Save rateContext 67%

46% PossessionIn forecast 61%

369 PassesContext 573

295 Accurate passesContext 508

80% Pass accuracyContext 89%

6.79 Team ratingContext 7.01

12.11 FoulsContext 9.78

14.00 Fouls sufferedContext 9.89

1.67 Yellow cardsContext 1.56

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 9 and 9 games

1.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.60

2.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20

1.19 xGVia Att/Def 2.27

2.03 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.11

+0.21 Goals minus xGContext +0.33

90% Scored inContext 90%

20% Clean sheetsContext 10%

14.10 ShotsContext 17.30

4.90 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.50

35% On target shareContext 38%

9.30 Shots in the boxContext 11.60

69% Box shareContext 67%

10% ConversionContext 15%

2.11 OffsidesContext 2.22

13.80 Shots allowedContext 11.70

5.40 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.20

3.70 BlocksContext 3.56

3.67 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.22

64% Save rateContext 71%

49% PossessionIn forecast 58%

395 PassesContext 526

317 Accurate passesContext 464

80% Pass accuracyContext 88%

6.84 Team ratingContext 6.95

12.40 FoulsContext 10.50

14.70 Fouls sufferedContext 11.00

1.90 Yellow cardsContext 1.80

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Cambuur DWDWD

Rest7.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 51 · 9 pts vs 8.9 for an average club · +3.3 vs expected

D18 OctH · AZ Alkmaar2–20.9 xPts
W11 OctA · PEC Zwolle1–01.3 xPts
D19 SepA · ADO Den Haag1–11.4 xPts
W12 SepH · NEC Nijmegen3–01.1 xPts
D6 SepA · Telstar2–21.0 xPts

PSV Eindhoven WLWLL

Rest3.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel197 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 32 · 6 pts vs 8.1 for an average club · -4.7 vs expected

L17 OctA · ADO Den Haag1–22.4 xPts
L13 OctA · RB Leipzig0–11.2 xPts
W9 OctH · Heerenveen2–02.5 xPts
L20 SepA · Twente2–31.8 xPts
W13 SepH · Sparta Rotterdam4–12.7 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Cambuur	PSV Eindhoven
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7.8Eredivisie 2026-2027, 31 Oct	3.8UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - League phase, 4 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	197 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 3	1 / 2 / 6
Next matchdays after this one	13.1	13

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Cambuur Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs AZ Alkmaar (H) 2–2, 18 Oct

1T. Jansen(G)

28M. Costarelli 14B. van Duijl 4I. Baouf 2D. Bouah

8N. Souren 33M. Maertens

11I. Hamache 10Rafik El Arguioui 30J. Çeka

13N. Binder

PSV Eindhoven Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs ADO Den Haag (A) 1–2, 17 Oct

32M. Kovář(G)

18F. Kostić 4A. Obispo 2L. Geertruida 8S. Dest

17Mauro Júnior 24K. Sano

35A. Santos 20G. Til 27D. Man

21S. Mijnans

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Cambuur No reported absences

PSV Eindhoven No reported absences

Total impact vs full squads

Cambuur+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
PSV Eindhoven+0.0 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Cambuur · Home 0.80points per game · 5 home games

W-D-L: 1-1-3
Scored: 1.60
Conceded: 3.00

PSV Eindhoven · Away 1.80points per game · 5 away games

W-D-L: 3-0-2
Scored: 2.80
Conceded: 1.60

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 4 this season

Opponent	Cambuur	PSV Eindhoven
ADO Den Haag	D 1–1 A	L 1–2 A
Twente	L 1–4 H	L 2–3 A
Fortuna Sittard	L 1–3 A	D 2–2 H
Excelsior	L 0–4 H	W 2–1 A
Points	1 of 12 · 0.25 per game	4 of 12 · 1.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	Cambuur	PSV Eindhoven	Forecast
Scored per game	1.44	3.00
Conceded per game	2.33	1.33
Match goals	3.78	4.33	3.39
Over 1.5	89%	100%
Over 2.5	78%	89%	66%
Over 3.5	67%	67%
Both teams scored	67%	89%	62%
Clean sheets	22%	11%
Failed to score	11%	0%
Games	9	9

	Cambuur	PSV Eindhoven	Forecast
Scored per game	1.44	2.60
Conceded per game	2.33	1.20
Match goals	3.78	3.80	3.39
Over 1.5	89%	90%
Over 2.5	78%	70%	66%
Over 3.5	67%	50%
Both teams scored	67%	80%	62%
Clean sheets	22%	10%
Failed to score	11%	10%
Games	9	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Cambuur	PSV Eindhoven	League
Corners
Corners won	3.78	5.29
Corners conceded	5.78	3.86
Match total	9.56	9.15	10.39
Over 8.5	78% 7/9	57% 4/7
Over 9.5	44% 4/9	57% 4/7
Over 10.5	33% 3/9	43% 3/7
Cards
Cards	1.78	1.67
Opponent cards	1.78	2.00
Match total	3.56	3.67	2.77
Over 3.5	56% 5/9	33% 3/9
Over 4.5	33% 3/9	33% 3/9

	Cambuur	PSV Eindhoven	League
Corners
Corners won	4.80	5.44
Corners conceded	5.30	3.89
Match total	10.10	9.33	10.39
Over 8.5	80% 8/10	56% 5/9
Over 9.5	50% 5/10	56% 5/9
Over 10.5	40% 4/10	44% 4/9
Cards
Cards	2.00	1.90
Opponent cards	2.40	2.40
Match total	4.40	4.30	2.77
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	40% 4/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.