Excelsior vs GO Ahead Eagles

Eredivisie Gameweek 12 Sat, Nov 7 · 20:00 Van Donge & De Roo Stadion, Rotterdam

Excelsior 10th · 11 pts · 9 played DLDLL

VS— Compare

GO Ahead Eagles 9th · 11 pts · 9 played DDDDL

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It looks too close to call.

The two sides are close in strength. Excelsior have 6.3 days of rest, GO Ahead Eagles 7 and have to travel 121 km.

Away travel121 kmRest days6.3 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 1

Excelsior41%

Draw24%

GO Ahead Eagles35%

Expected goals 1.74 – 1.61

Excelsior40%

Draw27%

GO Ahead Eagles33%

Expected goals 1.42 – 1.26

Excelsior41%

Draw24%

GO Ahead Eagles35%

Expected goals 1.74 – 1.61

Excelsior33%

Draw24%

GO Ahead Eagles43%

Expected goals 1.55 – 1.80

Excelsior41%

Draw24%

GO Ahead Eagles34%

Expected goals 1.70 – 1.54

Over 2.5 65% Both score 66% Likeliest score 1–1

EloLambda forecast, updated 2 days ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Rotterdam)

Forecast from 23 Oct

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Defence

Streaks

Streak GO Ahead Eagles 9 Scoring in a row Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Scoring in a row

Team strength

Excelsior

GO Ahead Eagles

21 L90 StrengthIn forecast 26

21 Current StrengthIn forecast 24

21 AttackIn forecast 29

18 DefenceIn forecast 17

11 Form indexContext 14

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Excelsior

Attack+11%

Defense risk−3%

GO Ahead Eagles

Attack+15%

Defense risk−13%

Both teams face a more favorable matchup than their league-average baseline.

Playing style

Excelsior

GO Ahead Eagles

1.78 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.22

2.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.33

1.60 xGVia Att/Def 1.78

1.93 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.81

+0.18 Goals minus xGContext +0.44

89% Scored inContext 100%

22% Clean sheetsContext 0%

10.78 ShotsContext 15.78

3.78 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.22

35% On target shareContext 39%

8.25 Shots in the boxContext 10.44

70% Box shareContext 66%

17% ConversionContext 14%

1.00 OffsidesContext 1.33

15.67 Shots allowedContext 16.89

5.22 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.22

4.22 BlocksContext 5.50

3.33 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.25

64% Save rateContext 57%

43% PossessionIn forecast 56%

390 PassesContext 486

309 Accurate passesContext 402

79% Pass accuracyContext 83%

6.73 Team ratingContext 6.74

11.56 FoulsContext 7.11

7.33 Fouls sufferedContext 9.78

1.22 Yellow cardsContext 0.78

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 9 and 9 games

1.90 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.10

2.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.30

1.47 xGVia Att/Def 1.54

1.89 xG allowedVia Att/Def 2.25

+0.43 Goals minus xGContext +0.56

90% Scored inContext 100%

20% Clean sheetsContext 0%

11.30 ShotsContext 14.50

3.80 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.70

34% On target shareContext 39%

8.00 Shots in the boxContext 10.44

66% Box shareContext 66%

17% ConversionContext 15%

1.00 OffsidesContext 1.33

15.80 Shots allowedContext 18.80

5.10 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.90

4.50 BlocksContext 6.44

3.30 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.00

65% Save rateContext 62%

43% PossessionIn forecast 55%

389 PassesContext 467

309 Accurate passesContext 385

79% Pass accuracyContext 82%

6.73 Team ratingContext 6.75

11.80 FoulsContext 7.20

7.60 Fouls sufferedContext 9.90

1.10 Yellow cardsContext 0.90

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Excelsior DLDLL

Rest6.3 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km282 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 11 · 2 pts vs 7.9 for an average club · -4.1 vs expected

L16 OctA · Heerenveen0–40.9 xPts
L11 OctH · Groningen1–51.7 xPts
D19 SepA · Ajax2–20.7 xPts
L13 SepH · Utrecht1–21.9 xPts
D8 SepA · NEC Nijmegen2–21.0 xPts

GO Ahead Eagles DDDDL

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel121 km216 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 14 · 4 pts vs 9.0 for an average club · -3.2 vs expected

L18 OctA · PEC Zwolle1–41.5 xPts
D10 OctH · Sparta Rotterdam3–31.9 xPts
D20 SepA · NEC Nijmegen1–11.1 xPts
D12 SepH · Groningen1–11.6 xPts
D8 SepA · Utrecht3–31.2 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Excelsior	GO Ahead Eagles
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6.3Eredivisie 2026-2027, 1 Nov	7Eredivisie 2026-2027, 31 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	121 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	282 km	216 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 4	1 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	13.9	14.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Excelsior Last XI · not confirmed

4-3-3 · vs Heerenveen (A) 0–4, 16 Oct

1S. van Gassel(G)

15Simon Janssen 14J. Plug 4C. Widell 2E. da Silva Moreira

20L. Hartjes 3R. Meissen 8I. Yegoian

30Á. Þorsteinsson 19D. Garden 7Aymen Sliti

GO Ahead Eagles Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs PEC Zwolle (A) 1–4, 18 Oct

1C. Haug(G)

5D. James 4J. Kramer 25G. van Zwam 2A. Sampsted

8H. Linthorst 21M. Meulensteen

17M. Suray 10S. Tengstedt 16V. Edvardsen

9S. Sigurðarson

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Excelsior No reported absences

GO Ahead Eagles No reported absences

Total impact vs full squads

Excelsior+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
GO Ahead Eagles+0.0 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Excelsior · Home 0.75points per game · 4 home games

W-D-L: 1-0-3
Scored: 1.25
Conceded: 2.50

GO Ahead Eagles · Away 0.60points per game · 5 away games

W-D-L: 0-3-2
Scored: 1.80
Conceded: 3.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 5 this season

Opponent	Excelsior	GO Ahead Eagles
Groningen	L 1–5 H	D 1–1 H
Utrecht	L 1–2 H	D 3–3 A
NEC Nijmegen	D 2–2 A	D 1–1 A
Willem II	W 3–0 A	W 4–1 H
Sparta Rotterdam	W 2–1 H	D 3–3 H
Points	7 of 15 · 1.40 per game	7 of 15 · 1.40 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings

0 Excelsior wins1 draws2 GO Ahead Eagles wins

Goals per game0.33 – 1.33 Over 2.50% Both scored33% Clean sheets0% · 67%

1 Mar 2026Excelsior0–1GO Ahead Eagles
26 Oct 2025GO Ahead Eagles2–0Excelsior
16 Dec 2023Excelsior1–1GO Ahead Eagles

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Excelsior	GO Ahead Eagles	Forecast
Scored per game	1.78	2.22
Conceded per game	2.00	2.33
Match goals	3.78	4.56	3.35
Over 1.5	100%	100%
Over 2.5	100%	78%	65%
Over 3.5	56%	78%
Both teams scored	67%	100%	66%
Clean sheets	22%	0%
Failed to score	11%	0%
Games	9	9

	Excelsior	GO Ahead Eagles	Forecast
Scored per game	1.90	2.10
Conceded per game	2.00	2.30
Match goals	3.90	4.40	3.35
Over 1.5	100%	100%
Over 2.5	100%	80%	65%
Over 3.5	60%	70%
Both teams scored	70%	100%	66%
Clean sheets	20%	0%
Failed to score	10%	0%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Excelsior	GO Ahead Eagles	League
Corners
Corners won	4.25	6.33
Corners conceded	4.50	4.78
Match total	8.75	11.11	10.39
Over 8.5	50% 4/8	78% 7/9
Over 9.5	38% 3/8	78% 7/9
Over 10.5	25% 2/8	67% 6/9
Cards
Cards	1.22	0.78
Opponent cards	0.78	0.89
Match total	2.00	1.67	2.77
Over 3.5	11% 1/9	0% 0/9
Over 4.5	0% 0/9	0% 0/9

	Excelsior	GO Ahead Eagles	League
Corners
Corners won	4.00	6.10
Corners conceded	4.56	5.60
Match total	8.56	11.70	10.39
Over 8.5	44% 4/9	80% 8/10
Over 9.5	33% 3/9	80% 8/10
Over 10.5	22% 2/9	70% 7/10
Cards
Cards	1.10	0.90
Opponent cards	1.10	0.90
Match total	2.20	1.80	2.77
Over 3.5	20% 2/10	0% 0/10
Over 4.5	0% 0/10	0% 0/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.