Utrecht vs NEC Nijmegen

Eredivisie Gameweek 12 Sun, Nov 8 · 19:00 Stadion Galgenwaard, Utrecht

Utrecht 11th · 11 pts · 9 played DWLWW

VS— Compare

NEC Nijmegen 12th · 10 pts · 9 played DLDDD

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It looks too close to call.

The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards NEC Nijmegen. Utrecht have 7.2 days of rest, NEC Nijmegen 3.1 and have to travel 57 km.

Away travel57 kmRest days7.2 · 3.1Matches / 14d1 · 2

Utrecht40%

Draw24%

NEC Nijmegen36%

Expected goals 1.71 – 1.60

Utrecht43%

Draw27%

NEC Nijmegen30%

Expected goals 1.48 – 1.21

Utrecht40%

Draw24%

NEC Nijmegen36%

Expected goals 1.71 – 1.60

Utrecht33%

Draw24%

NEC Nijmegen44%

Expected goals 1.53 – 1.79

Utrecht41%

Draw25%

NEC Nijmegen35%

Expected goals 1.67 – 1.52

Over 2.5 64% Both score 66% Likeliest score 1–1

EloLambda forecast, updated 19 hours ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Utrecht)

Forecast from 24 Oct

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Defence

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Team strength

Utrecht

NEC Nijmegen

32 L90 StrengthIn forecast 33

34 Current StrengthIn forecast 32

32 AttackIn forecast 37

31 DefenceIn forecast 33

65 Form indexContext 18

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Utrecht

Attack−3%

Defense risk+5%

NEC Nijmegen

Attack+1%

Defense risk−6%

Changes versus each team's league-average baseline. Higher attack and lower defense risk are favorable.

Playing style

Utrecht

NEC Nijmegen

1.78 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.67

2.89 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.78

1.31 xGVia Att/Def 2.16

1.72 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.48

+0.47 Goals minus xGContext -0.49

89% Scored inContext 89%

0% Clean sheetsContext 0%

12.89 ShotsContext 15.11

4.33 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.22

34% On target shareContext 28%

10.25 Shots in the boxContext 9.78

69% Box shareContext 64%

14% ConversionContext 11%

2.00 OffsidesContext 2.57

18.11 Shots allowedContext 11.56

7.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.44

4.33 BlocksContext 3.11

4.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.56

57% Save rateContext 58%

43% PossessionIn forecast 60%

391 PassesContext 488

313 Accurate passesContext 401

80% Pass accuracyContext 82%

6.55 Team ratingContext 6.59

16.33 FoulsContext 11.33

10.67 Fouls sufferedContext 12.11

2.11 Yellow cardsContext 1.33

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 9 and 9 games

1.90 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.10

2.80 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.20

1.38 xGVia Att/Def 1.94

1.65 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.39

+0.52 Goals minus xGContext -0.84

90% Scored inContext 70%

0% Clean sheetsContext 0%

13.70 ShotsContext 12.00

4.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.80

33% On target shareContext 32%

10.67 Shots in the boxContext 7.60

68% Box shareContext 59%

14% ConversionContext 9%

1.83 OffsidesContext 2.43

17.60 Shots allowedContext 12.70

6.80 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.30

4.10 BlocksContext 2.80

3.90 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.10

57% Save rateContext 59%

43% PossessionIn forecast 52%

388 PassesContext 442

312 Accurate passesContext 358

80% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.60 Team ratingContext 6.44

15.80 FoulsContext 11.70

10.20 Fouls sufferedContext 11.80

1.90 Yellow cardsContext 1.40

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Utrecht DWLWW

Rest7.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km104 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 65 · 10 pts vs 8.3 for an average club · +4.2 vs expected

W18 OctA · Twente2–10.7 xPts
W11 OctH · Willem II3–12.1 xPts
L20 SepA · Feyenoord0–50.5 xPts
W13 SepA · Excelsior2–10.9 xPts
D8 SepH · GO Ahead Eagles3–31.6 xPts

NEC Nijmegen LDDDD

Rest3.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel57 km249 km in 14d

Schedule load8%Low

Form 18 · 4 pts vs 8.2 for an average club · -2.7 vs expected

D18 OctH · Fortuna Sittard2–21.9 xPts
D15 OctH · Levski Sofia1–11.8 xPts
D10 OctA · Ajax1–10.7 xPts
D20 SepH · GO Ahead Eagles1–11.7 xPts
L17 SepA · Juventus0–50.6 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Utrecht	NEC Nijmegen
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 8
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7.2Eredivisie 2026-2027, 1 Nov	3.1UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - League phase, 5 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	57 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	104 km	249 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 3	1 / 2 / 6
Next matchdays after this one	12.9	12.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Utrecht Last XI · not confirmed

3-4-3 · vs Twente (A) 2–1, 18 Oct

22S. Padt(G)

5N. Panagiotou 3M. Didden 2S. Horemans

92A. Zagré 38O. Agougil 8J. van Overeem 23N. Vesterlund

11Ángel Alarcón 20D. de Wit 10Y. Cathline

NEC Nijmegen Last XI · not confirmed

3-4-2-1 · vs Fortuna Sittard (H) 2–2, 18 Oct

1G. Crettaz(G)

24D. Fonville 22A. Kaplan 21T. Storm

35Jamiro Monteiro 18D. Geiger 6D. Nejašmić 34Kevin Kers

99Clement Bischoff 20N. Lebreton

30B. Linssen

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Utrecht No reported absences

NEC Nijmegen No reported absences

Total impact vs full squads

Utrecht+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
NEC Nijmegen+0.0 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Utrecht · Home 1.00points per game · 4 home games

W-D-L: 1-1-2
Scored: 2.00
Conceded: 3.50

NEC Nijmegen · Away 1.75points per game · 4 away games

W-D-L: 2-1-1
Scored: 2.00
Conceded: 1.50

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 4 this season

Opponent	Utrecht	NEC Nijmegen
Willem II	W 3–1 H	W 4–1 A
Feyenoord	L 0–5 A	L 1–3 H
Excelsior	W 2–1 A	D 2–2 H
GO Ahead Eagles	D 3–3 H	D 1–1 H
Points	7 of 12 · 1.75 per game	5 of 12 · 1.25 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings

3 Utrecht wins0 draws2 NEC Nijmegen wins

Goals per game1.20 – 1.20 Over 2.560% Both scored40% Clean sheets20% · 40%

11 Feb 2026NEC Nijmegen1–3Utrecht
2 Nov 2025Utrecht1–0NEC Nijmegen
15 Mar 2025Utrecht0–1NEC Nijmegen
24 Nov 2024NEC Nijmegen1–2Utrecht
23 Sep 2023NEC Nijmegen3–0Utrecht

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Utrecht	NEC Nijmegen	Forecast
Scored per game	1.78	1.67
Conceded per game	2.89	1.78
Match goals	4.67	3.44	3.31
Over 1.5	100%	100%
Over 2.5	100%	78%	64%
Over 3.5	67%	56%
Both teams scored	89%	89%	66%
Clean sheets	0%	0%
Failed to score	11%	11%
Games	9	9

	Utrecht	NEC Nijmegen	Forecast
Scored per game	1.80	1.10
Conceded per game	2.60	2.20
Match goals	4.40	3.30	3.31
Over 1.5	100%	100%
Over 2.5	90%	70%	64%
Over 3.5	60%	50%
Both teams scored	80%	70%	66%
Clean sheets	10%	0%
Failed to score	10%	30%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Utrecht	NEC Nijmegen	League
Corners
Corners won	4.25	4.88
Corners conceded	5.25	3.75
Match total	9.50	8.63	10.39
Over 8.5	63% 5/8	50% 4/8
Over 9.5	50% 4/8	38% 3/8
Over 10.5	38% 3/8	38% 3/8
Cards
Cards	2.11	1.33
Opponent cards	0.89	1.78
Match total	3.00	3.11	2.77
Over 3.5	33% 3/9	56% 5/9
Over 4.5	22% 2/9	0% 0/9

	Utrecht	NEC Nijmegen	League
Corners
Corners won	4.67	4.00
Corners conceded	5.33	3.88
Match total	10.00	7.88	10.39
Over 8.5	67% 6/9	38% 3/8
Over 9.5	56% 5/9	25% 2/8
Over 10.5	44% 4/9	25% 2/8
Cards
Cards	1.90	1.50
Opponent cards	0.90	1.40
Match total	2.80	2.90	2.77
Over 3.5	30% 3/10	40% 4/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	0% 0/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.