Bundesliga Gameweek 8 Sun, Nov 1 · 14:30 Stadion An der Alten Försterei, Berlin
Union Berlin 17th · 5 pts · 6 played
VS— Compare
1.FC Köln 12th · 7 pts · 6 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

Union Berlin are slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Union Berlin have 8 days of rest, 1.FC Köln 8 and have to travel 479 km. Conditions look neutral.

Away travel479 kmRest days8 · 8Matches / 14d1 · 1
Union Berlin50%
Draw23%
1.FC Köln27%
Expected goals 1.93 – 1.38
Union Berlin47%
Draw26%
1.FC Köln27%
Expected goals 1.58 – 1.13
Union Berlin50%
Draw23%
1.FC Köln27%
Expected goals 1.93 – 1.38
Union Berlin41%
Draw24%
1.FC Köln34%
Expected goals 1.72 – 1.55
Union Berlin49%
Draw24%
1.FC Köln27%
Expected goals 1.85 – 1.31
Over 2.5 64% Both score 65% Likeliest score 1–1
EloLambda forecast, updated 6 hours ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Berlin)
10°CPartly cloudy
  • Precipitation 11%
  • Wind 3 km/h
  • Humidity 81%
Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Union Berlin and 1.FC Köln. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Team strength

Union Berlin1.FC Köln
39 L90 StrengthIn forecast 34
39 Current StrengthIn forecast 34
42 AttackIn forecast 36
41 DefenceIn forecast 36
38 Form indexContext 26
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Union Berlin

Attack+16%
Defense risk−21%

1.FC Köln

Attack+9%
Defense risk−18%

Both teams face a more favorable matchup than their league-average baseline.

Playing style

Union Berlin1.FC Köln
0.83 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.33
2.83 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.83
1.17 xGVia Att/Def 1.67
2.09 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.73
-0.34 Goals minus xGContext -0.34
50% Scored inContext 83%
33% Clean sheetsContext 0%
12.83 ShotsContext 16.33
6.75 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.33
35% On target shareContext 33%
9.00 Shots in the boxContext 11.50
64% Box shareContext 71%
7% ConversionContext 8%
2.60 OffsidesContext 1.00
15.67 Shots allowedContext 15.67
7.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.33
4.20 BlocksContext 3.83
4.40 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.50
56% Save rateContext 71%
44% PossessionIn forecast 48%
359 PassesContext 417
268 Accurate passesContext 344
75% Pass accuracyContext 83%
6.58 Team ratingContext 6.76
11.67 FoulsContext 11.17
10.50 Fouls sufferedContext 11.33
2.50 Yellow cardsContext 1.83
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 6 and 6 games
1.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.30
2.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.30
1.31 xGVia Att/Def 1.61
2.00 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.70
+0.19 Goals minus xGContext -0.31
70% Scored inContext 90%
30% Clean sheetsContext 0%
12.30 ShotsContext 15.30
5.88 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.30
38% On target shareContext 35%
8.30 Shots in the boxContext 11.00
63% Box shareContext 73%
12% ConversionContext 9%
2.43 OffsidesContext 1.17
14.50 Shots allowedContext 14.50
5.90 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.50
4.13 BlocksContext 3.80
3.56 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.56
57% Save rateContext 60%
45% PossessionIn forecast 47%
372 PassesContext 414
285 Accurate passesContext 343
77% Pass accuracyContext 83%
6.74 Team ratingContext 6.69
10.30 FoulsContext 9.80
9.60 Fouls sufferedContext 9.30
2.20 Yellow cardsContext 1.80
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Union Berlin
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km990 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 38 · 4 pts vs 5.4 for an average club · -0.8 vs expected
  • D17 OctH · Borussia Dortmund0–00.9 xPts
  • W10 OctH · SV Elversberg1–01.4 xPts
  • L18 SepA · Bayern München0–70.2 xPts
  • L11 SepH · FC Schalke 041–31.6 xPts
  • L5 SepA · Bayer Leverkusen0–40.7 xPts
1.FC Köln
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel479 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Form 26 · 4 pts vs 7.0 for an average club · -2.2 vs expected
  • L16 OctA · Eintracht Frankfurt0–11.0 xPts
  • W11 OctH · Borussia Mönchengladbach2–11.7 xPts
  • L19 SepA · Hamburger SV1–21.2 xPts
  • D12 SepH · Werder Bremen1–11.6 xPts
  • L4 SepA · VfB Stuttgart1–40.7 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Union Berlin 1.FC Köln
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match8Bundesliga 2026-2027, 24 Oct8Bundesliga 2026-2027, 24 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km479 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways990 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days0 / 1 / 30 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one7.17

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Union Berlin Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Borussia Dortmund (H) 0–0, 17 Oct
1F. Rønnow(G)
15T. Rothe 2O. Uduokhai 4Z. Van Den Bosch 19J. Haberer
13A. Schäfer 20M. Aebischer
30K. Imeri 11W. Jeong 8R. Khedira
21T. Skarke
1.FC Köln Last XI · not confirmed
5-3-2 · vs Eintracht Frankfurt (A) 0–1, 16 Oct
1M. Schwäbe(G)
3B. Sosa 24L. Lochoshvili 22J. Simpson-Pusey 2Joel Schmied 28S. Sebulonsen
37L. Maina 5T. Krauß 8Í. Jóhannesson
10S. El Mala 30M. Bülter

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Union Berlin No reported absences
1.FC Köln No reported absences
Total impact vs full squads
  • Union Berlin+0.0 pp
  • Draw+0.0 pp
  • 1.FC Köln+0.0 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Union Berlin · Home 1.25points per game · 4 home games
W-D-L
1-2-1
Scored
1.25
Conceded
1.50
1.FC Köln · Away 0.00points per game · 3 away games
W-D-L
0-0-3
Scored
0.67
Conceded
2.33

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 1 this season

OpponentUnion Berlin1.FC Köln
Eintracht Frankfurt D 3–3 H L 0–1 A
Points1 of 3 · 1.00 per game0 of 3 · 0.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

4 Union Berlin wins3 draws1 1.FC Köln wins
Goals per game1.38 – 0.88 Over 2.538% Both scored38% Clean sheets63% · 13%
  • 2 May 2026Union Berlin2–21.FC Köln
  • 20 Dec 20251.FC Köln0–1Union Berlin
  • 11 May 20241.FC Köln3–2Union Berlin
  • 20 Dec 2023Union Berlin2–01.FC Köln
  • 4 Mar 2023Union Berlin0–01.FC Köln
  • 11 Sep 20221.FC Köln0–1Union Berlin

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

Union Berlin1.FC KölnForecast
Scored per game 0.831.33
Conceded per game 2.831.83
Match goals 3.673.17 3.31
Over 1.5 67%83%
Over 2.5 67%67% 64%
Over 3.5 67%33%
Both teams scored 33%83% 65%
Clean sheets 33%0%
Failed to score 50%17%
Games66
Union Berlin1.FC KölnForecast
Scored per game 1.501.30
Conceded per game 2.302.30
Match goals 3.803.60 3.31
Over 1.5 80%90%
Over 2.5 80%80% 64%
Over 3.5 80%50%
Both teams scored 50%90% 65%
Clean sheets 30%0%
Failed to score 30%10%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

Union Berlin1.FC KölnLeague
Corners
Corners won4.006.00
Corners conceded5.836.33
Match total9.8312.3310.72
Over 8.583% 5/683% 5/6
Over 9.567% 4/683% 5/6
Over 10.533% 2/667% 4/6
Cards
Cards2.501.83
Opponent cards2.001.67
Match total4.503.503.51
Over 3.583% 5/667% 4/6
Over 4.533% 2/60% 0/6
Union Berlin1.FC KölnLeague
Corners
Corners won4.105.78
Corners conceded6.505.44
Match total10.6011.2210.72
Over 8.580% 8/1078% 7/9
Over 9.570% 7/1078% 7/9
Over 10.550% 5/1044% 4/9
Cards
Cards2.201.80
Opponent cards1.901.70
Match total4.103.503.51
Over 3.570% 7/1060% 6/10
Over 4.530% 3/1010% 1/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Union Berlin6 games · scored 5 · conceded 17
1 3 0-15
3 16-30
2 31-45
3 46-60
4 61-75
4 2 76-90
1.FC Köln6 games · scored 8 · conceded 11
1 0-15
1 1 16-30
3 31-45
1 2 46-60
2 3 61-75
3 2 76-90
Union Berlin10 games · scored 15 · conceded 23
2 3 0-15
5 16-30
2 3 31-45
1 4 46-60
1 6 61-75
9 2 76-90
1.FC Köln10 games · scored 13 · conceded 23
2 3 0-15
2 3 16-30
1 4 31-45
1 3 46-60
3 6 61-75
4 4 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Beta

Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.

Next fixtures Bundesliga

View all fixtures →
SV Elversberg FSV Mainz 05 Oct 3019:30 Werder Bremen 1899 Hoffenheim Oct 3114:30 Borussia Mönchengladbach SC Paderborn 07 Oct 3114:30 Bayer Leverkusen VfB Stuttgart Oct 3114:30 FC Augsburg SC Freiburg Oct 3114:30 FC Schalke 04 RB Leipzig Oct 3114:30 Bayern München Borussia Dortmund Oct 3117:30 Union Berlin 1.FC Köln Nov 114:30 Eintracht Frankfurt Hamburger SV Nov 116:30