SV Elversberg vs FSV Mainz 05

Bundesliga Gameweek 8 Fri, Oct 30 · 19:30 URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde, Spiesen-Elversberg

SV Elversberg 6th · 10 pts · 6 played WLDLW

VS— Compare

FSV Mainz 05 5th · 10 pts · 6 played WLWLW

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

FSV Mainz 05 are slight favourites.

FSV Mainz 05 are the stronger side on L90 Strength (55 vs 42). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for FSV Mainz 05. SV Elversberg have 6.3 days of rest, FSV Mainz 05 6.3 and have to travel 111 km. Conditions look neutral.

Away travel111 kmRest days6.3 · 6.3Matches / 14d2 · 2

SV Elversberg33%

Draw23%

FSV Mainz 0545%

Expected goals 1.65 – 1.96

SV Elversberg36%

Draw27%

FSV Mainz 0537%

Expected goals 1.32 – 1.35

SV Elversberg33%

Draw23%

FSV Mainz 0545%

Expected goals 1.65 – 1.96

SV Elversberg25%

Draw21%

FSV Mainz 0554%

Expected goals 1.47 – 2.19

SV Elversberg32%

Draw23%

FSV Mainz 0544%

Expected goals 1.56 – 1.84

Over 2.5 70% Both score 70% Likeliest score 1–1

EloLambda forecast, updated 4 hours ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Spiesen-Elversberg)

6°CClear

Precipitation 22%
Wind 10 km/h
Humidity 94%

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Defence

Streaks

Streak FSV Mainz 05 5 Scoring in a row Last 6 recorded matches · all competitions Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Scoring in a row

Team strength

SV Elversberg

FSV Mainz 05

42 L90 StrengthIn forecast 55

42 Current StrengthIn forecast 55

44 AttackIn forecast 68

37 DefenceIn forecast 56

60 Form indexContext 70

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

SV Elversberg

Attack−4%

Defense risk+7%

FSV Mainz 05

Attack+14%

Defense risk−14%

Changes versus each team's league-average baseline. Higher attack and lower defense risk are favorable.

Playing style

SV Elversberg

FSV Mainz 05

2.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.33

1.83 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.67

1.45 xGVia Att/Def 2.14

2.17 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.35

+0.55 Goals minus xGContext +0.19

67% Scored inContext 83%

17% Clean sheetsContext 50%

11.17 ShotsContext 17.83

4.67 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.00

42% On target shareContext 34%

8.17 Shots in the boxContext 13.33

72% Box shareContext 76%

18% ConversionContext 13%

3.20 OffsidesContext 2.40

22.00 Shots allowedContext 12.50

5.33 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.60

8.50 BlocksContext 4.17

3.17 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.60

59% Save rateContext 57%

44% PossessionIn forecast 51%

382 PassesContext 446

303 Accurate passesContext 357

80% Pass accuracyContext 80%

6.82 Team ratingContext 6.94

11.67 FoulsContext 13.83

13.17 Fouls sufferedContext 11.17

2.17 Yellow cardsContext 2.33

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 6 and 6 games

2.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.20

1.80 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.80

1.46 xGVia Att/Def 2.21

1.63 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.59

+0.94 Goals minus xGContext -0.01

80% Scored inContext 90%

20% Clean sheetsContext 40%

11.20 ShotsContext 17.10

4.20 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.20

38% On target shareContext 36%

7.56 Shots in the boxContext 12.80

66% Box shareContext 75%

21% ConversionContext 13%

2.86 OffsidesContext 2.22

16.90 Shots allowedContext 12.50

4.60 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.00

6.33 BlocksContext 3.30

2.89 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.89

59% Save rateContext 58%

48% PossessionIn forecast 48%

387 PassesContext 420

309 Accurate passesContext 337

80% Pass accuracyContext 80%

6.83 Team ratingContext 6.94

11.50 FoulsContext 12.80

12.40 Fouls sufferedContext 10.30

1.90 Yellow cardsContext 1.90

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

SV Elversberg WLDLW

Rest6.3 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km869 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 60 · 7 pts vs 5.9 for an average club · +1.6 vs expected

W17 OctH · FC Augsburg4–31.4 xPts
L10 OctA · Union Berlin0–11.3 xPts
D20 SepA · FC Schalke 040–01.1 xPts
L13 SepH · Bayern München1–20.5 xPts
W5 SepA · Borussia Mönchengladbach4–31.2 xPts

FSV Mainz 05 WLWLW

Rest6.3 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel111 km377 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 70 · 9 pts vs 6.6 for an average club · +1.8 vs expected

W17 OctA · FC Schalke 041–01.3 xPts
L10 OctH · Bayer Leverkusen3–41.2 xPts
W19 SepA · Borussia Mönchengladbach4–31.5 xPts
L12 SepH · Eintracht Frankfurt1–31.9 xPts
W6 SepA · Hamburger SV5–01.4 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	SV Elversberg	FSV Mainz 05
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6.3Bundesliga 2026-2027, 24 Oct	6.3Bundesliga 2026-2027, 24 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	111 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	869 km	377 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 3	1 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	7.8	7.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

SV Elversberg Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs FC Augsburg (H) 4–3, 17 Oct

20N. Kristof(G)

21L. Günther 31M. Rohr 19L. Pinckert 30J. Gyamerah

8Ł. Poręba 43F. Keidel

7M. Krattenmacher 10N. Darvich 25L. Petkov

42David Mokwa

FSV Mainz 05 Last XI · not confirmed

3-5-2 · vs FC Schalke 04 (A) 1–0, 17 Oct

1A. Schwolow(G)

48K. Potulski 4S. Posch 21D. da Costa

2P. Mwene 7J. Lee 6K. Sano 10N. Amiri 19A. Caci

9P. Tietz 23S. Becker

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

SV Elversberg No reported absences

FSV Mainz 05 No reported absences

Total impact vs full squads

SV Elversberg+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
FSV Mainz 05+0.0 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

SV Elversberg · Home 2.00points per game · 3 home games

W-D-L: 2-0-1
Scored: 2.67
Conceded: 2.33

FSV Mainz 05 · Away 3.00points per game · 3 away games

W-D-L: 3-0-0
Scored: 3.33
Conceded: 1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 3 this season

Opponent	SV Elversberg	FSV Mainz 05
FC Schalke 04	D 0–0 A	W 1–0 A
Borussia Mönchengladbach	W 4–3 A	W 4–3 A
Bayer Leverkusen	W 3–2 H	L 3–4 H
Points	7 of 9 · 2.33 per game	6 of 9 · 2.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	SV Elversberg	FSV Mainz 05	Forecast
Scored per game	2.00	2.33
Conceded per game	1.83	1.67
Match goals	3.83	4.00	3.61
Over 1.5	67%	67%
Over 2.5	67%	67%	70%
Over 3.5	50%	67%
Both teams scored	67%	50%	70%
Clean sheets	17%	50%
Failed to score	33%	17%
Games	6	6

	SV Elversberg	FSV Mainz 05	Forecast
Scored per game	2.00	2.20
Conceded per game	1.83	1.80
Match goals	3.83	4.00	3.61
Over 1.5	67%	80%
Over 2.5	67%	70%	70%
Over 3.5	50%	60%
Both teams scored	67%	60%	70%
Clean sheets	17%	40%
Failed to score	33%	10%
Games	6	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	SV Elversberg	FSV Mainz 05	League
Corners
Corners won	3.67	4.83
Corners conceded	8.00	4.00
Match total	11.67	8.83	10.72
Over 8.5	67% 4/6	67% 4/6
Over 9.5	67% 4/6	33% 2/6
Over 10.5	50% 3/6	17% 1/6
Cards
Cards	2.17	2.33
Opponent cards	1.83	2.00
Match total	4.00	4.33	3.51
Over 3.5	50% 3/6	50% 3/6
Over 4.5	33% 2/6	17% 1/6

	SV Elversberg	FSV Mainz 05	League
Corners
Corners won	4.00	4.80
Corners conceded	6.20	4.90
Match total	10.20	9.70	10.72
Over 8.5	50% 5/10	70% 7/10
Over 9.5	50% 5/10	40% 4/10
Over 10.5	30% 3/10	30% 3/10
Cards
Cards	1.90	1.90
Opponent cards	2.30	1.90
Match total	4.20	3.80	3.51
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	40% 4/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	10% 1/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.