Bayer Leverkusen vs VfB Stuttgart

Bundesliga Gameweek 8 Sat, Oct 31 · 14:30 BayArena, Leverkusen

Bayer Leverkusen 4th · 13 pts · 6 played WDWWW

VS— Compare

VfB Stuttgart 13th · 6 pts · 6 played WLLWL

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Bayer Leverkusen are clear favourites.

Bayer Leverkusen are the stronger side on L90 Strength (79 vs 68). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Bayer Leverkusen. Bayer Leverkusen have 6 days of rest, VfB Stuttgart 7.8 and have to travel 295 km. Conditions look neutral.

Away travel295 kmRest days6 · 7.8Matches / 14d3 · 2

Bayer Leverkusen66%

Draw17%

VfB Stuttgart17%

Expected goals 2.76 – 1.39

Bayer Leverkusen52%

Draw25%

VfB Stuttgart23%

Expected goals 1.70 – 1.05

Bayer Leverkusen66%

Draw17%

VfB Stuttgart17%

Expected goals 2.76 – 1.39

Bayer Leverkusen57%

Draw20%

VfB Stuttgart23%

Expected goals 2.46 – 1.56

Bayer Leverkusen64%

Draw19%

VfB Stuttgart17%

Expected goals 2.45 – 1.23

Over 2.5 78% Both score 71% Likeliest score 2–1

EloLambda forecast, updated 8 hours ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Leverkusen)

13°CPartly cloudy

Precipitation 26%
Wind 7 km/h
Humidity 83%

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Defence

Streaks

Team strength

Bayer Leverkusen

VfB Stuttgart

79 L90 StrengthIn forecast 68

79 Current StrengthIn forecast 67

87 AttackIn forecast 70

79 DefenceIn forecast 58

94 Form indexContext 46

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Bayer Leverkusen

Attack−6%

Defense risk+15%

VfB Stuttgart

Attack−25%

Defense risk+46%

Both teams face a less favorable matchup than their league-average baseline.

Playing style

Bayer Leverkusen

VfB Stuttgart

2.67 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.33

1.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.67

2.19 xGVia Att/Def 1.91

1.16 xG allowedVia Att/Def 2.38

+0.48 Goals minus xGContext -0.58

100% Scored inContext 67%

33% Clean sheetsContext 17%

19.67 ShotsContext 17.00

6.17 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.83

31% On target shareContext 34%

13.83 Shots in the boxContext 12.17

71% Box shareContext 72%

14% ConversionContext 8%

1.33 OffsidesContext 1.60

11.50 Shots allowedContext 18.17

4.20 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.33

2.67 BlocksContext 5.00

2.20 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.33

52% Save rateContext 63%

58% PossessionIn forecast 55%

539 PassesContext 506

470 Accurate passesContext 422

87% Pass accuracyContext 83%

7.02 Team ratingContext 7.02

12.33 FoulsContext 9.83

10.00 Fouls sufferedContext 11.17

1.33 Yellow cardsContext 1.00

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 6 and 6 games

2.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.90

1.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.40

2.35 xGVia Att/Def 1.91

1.25 xG allowedVia Att/Def 2.00

+0.05 Goals minus xGContext -0.01

100% Scored inContext 80%

40% Clean sheetsContext 20%

18.50 ShotsContext 16.80

6.60 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.20

36% On target shareContext 37%

13.30 Shots in the boxContext 11.80

71% Box shareContext 70%

13% ConversionContext 11%

1.89 OffsidesContext 2.00

12.20 Shots allowedContext 15.50

4.56 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.80

3.10 BlocksContext 5.22

2.89 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.10

63% Save rateContext 65%

58% PossessionIn forecast 55%

537 PassesContext 502

470 Accurate passesContext 422

88% Pass accuracyContext 84%

7.06 Team ratingContext 7.07

11.90 FoulsContext 11.10

9.80 Fouls sufferedContext 11.20

1.20 Yellow cardsContext 1.40

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Bayer Leverkusen WWWWW

Rest6 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel0 km5,021 km in 14d

Schedule load25%Moderate

Form 94 · 15 pts vs 7.2 for an average club · +5.2 vs expected

W18 OctH · SC Freiburg2–12.1 xPts
W15 OctA · Lech Poznan4–01.9 xPts
W10 OctA · FSV Mainz 054–31.6 xPts
W20 SepH · RB Leipzig2–01.7 xPts
W16 SepH · Celje2–02.6 xPts

VfB Stuttgart LLWWL

Rest7.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel295 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 46 · 6 pts vs 6.4 for an average club · -2.0 vs expected

L17 OctA · Hamburger SV0–11.8 xPts
W14 OctA · Slovan Bratislava3–02.1 xPts
W10 OctA · SC Paderborn 072–01.6 xPts
L19 SepH · Borussia Dortmund0–11.2 xPts
L12 SepA · 1899 Hoffenheim1–21.4 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Bayer Leverkusen	VfB Stuttgart
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Moderate · 25	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6Bundesliga 2026-2027, 25 Oct	7.8Bundesliga 2026-2027, 23 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	295 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	5,021 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 3 / 5	0 / 2 / 5
Next matchdays after this one	5.2	3.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Bayer Leverkusen Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs SC Freiburg (H) 2–1, 18 Oct

1M. Flekken(G)

3Miguel Gutiérrez 2F. Medina 12E. Tapsoba 4J. Quansah

6E. Fernández 24Aleix García

9Afonso Moreira 30I. Maza 19M. Diaby

14P. Schick

VfB Stuttgart Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Hamburger SV (A) 0–1, 17 Oct

41D. Seimen(G)

3R. Hendriks 24J. Chabot 29Finn Jeltsch 4J. Vagnoman

6A. Stiller 16A. Karazor

18J. Leweling 26D. Undav 11B. El Khannouss

9E. Demirović

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Bayer Leverkusen No reported absences

VfB Stuttgart No reported absences

Total impact vs full squads

Bayer Leverkusen+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
VfB Stuttgart+0.0 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Bayer Leverkusen · Home 3.00points per game · 3 home games

W-D-L: 3-0-0
Scored: 2.67
Conceded: 0.33

VfB Stuttgart · Away 0.75points per game · 4 away games

W-D-L: 1-0-3
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 2.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings

4 Bayer Leverkusen wins4 draws2 VfB Stuttgart wins

Goals per game1.90 – 1.70 Over 2.560% Both scored80% Clean sheets20% · 10%

9 May 2026VfB Stuttgart3–1Bayer Leverkusen
10 Jan 2026Bayer Leverkusen1–4VfB Stuttgart
16 Mar 2025VfB Stuttgart3–4Bayer Leverkusen
1 Nov 2024Bayer Leverkusen0–0VfB Stuttgart
27 Apr 2024Bayer Leverkusen2–2VfB Stuttgart
10 Dec 2023VfB Stuttgart1–1Bayer Leverkusen

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Bayer Leverkusen	VfB Stuttgart	Forecast
Scored per game	2.67	1.33
Conceded per game	1.50	1.67
Match goals	4.17	3.00	4.15
Over 1.5	100%	67%
Over 2.5	83%	50%	78%
Over 3.5	67%	33%
Both teams scored	67%	50%	71%
Clean sheets	33%	17%
Failed to score	0%	33%
Games	6	6

	Bayer Leverkusen	VfB Stuttgart	Forecast
Scored per game	2.40	1.90
Conceded per game	1.30	1.40
Match goals	3.70	3.30	4.15
Over 1.5	100%	80%
Over 2.5	70%	70%	78%
Over 3.5	60%	50%
Both teams scored	60%	60%	71%
Clean sheets	40%	20%
Failed to score	0%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Bayer Leverkusen	VfB Stuttgart	League
Corners
Corners won	7.33	6.67
Corners conceded	3.33	6.00
Match total	10.66	12.67	10.72
Over 8.5	50% 3/6	83% 5/6
Over 9.5	50% 3/6	83% 5/6
Over 10.5	50% 3/6	83% 5/6
Cards
Cards	1.33	1.00
Opponent cards	2.17	2.33
Match total	3.50	3.33	3.51
Over 3.5	67% 4/6	50% 3/6
Over 4.5	33% 2/6	17% 1/6

	Bayer Leverkusen	VfB Stuttgart	League
Corners
Corners won	6.70	6.30
Corners conceded	3.50	5.40
Match total	10.20	11.70	10.72
Over 8.5	60% 6/10	90% 9/10
Over 9.5	40% 4/10	70% 7/10
Over 10.5	40% 4/10	70% 7/10
Cards
Cards	1.20	1.40
Opponent cards	1.80	2.10
Match total	3.00	3.50	3.51
Over 3.5	40% 4/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.