Eintracht Frankfurt vs Hamburger SV

Bundesliga Gameweek 8 Sun, Nov 1 · 16:30 Frankfurt Arena, Frankfurt am Main

Eintracht Frankfurt 11th · 8 pts · 6 played LWDLW

VS— Compare

Hamburger SV 9th · 9 pts · 6 played LLWWW

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Eintracht Frankfurt are slight favourites.

Eintracht Frankfurt are the stronger side on L90 Strength (48 vs 40). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Hamburger SV. Eintracht Frankfurt have 8 days of rest, Hamburger SV 8.1 and have to travel 392 km. Conditions look neutral.

Away travel392 kmRest days8 · 8.1Matches / 14d1 · 1

Eintracht Frankfurt52%

Draw22%

Hamburger SV26%

Expected goals 2.06 – 1.42

Eintracht Frankfurt49%

Draw26%

Hamburger SV25%

Expected goals 1.62 – 1.10

Eintracht Frankfurt52%

Draw22%

Hamburger SV26%

Expected goals 2.06 – 1.42

Eintracht Frankfurt43%

Draw23%

Hamburger SV33%

Expected goals 1.83 – 1.59

Eintracht Frankfurt50%

Draw23%

Hamburger SV27%

Expected goals 1.93 – 1.36

Over 2.5 67% Both score 67% Likeliest score 1–1

EloLambda forecast, updated 6 hours ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Frankfurt am Main)

8°CDrizzle

Precipitation 16%
Wind 7 km/h
Humidity 90%

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Defence

Streaks

Streak Hamburger SV 3 Wins in a row Last 6 recorded matches · all competitions Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Wins in a row

Team strength

Eintracht Frankfurt

Hamburger SV

48 L90 StrengthIn forecast 40

48 Current StrengthIn forecast 40

54 AttackIn forecast 37

37 DefenceIn forecast 43

52 Form indexContext 70

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Eintracht Frankfurt

Attack+7%

Defense risk−22%

Hamburger SV

Attack+13%

Defense risk−4%

Both teams face a more favorable matchup than their league-average baseline.

Playing style

Eintracht Frankfurt

Hamburger SV

1.67 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00

2.67 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.50

1.77 xGVia Att/Def 1.04

2.00 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.83

-0.10 Goals minus xGContext -0.04

83% Scored inContext 50%

17% Clean sheetsContext 17%

14.67 ShotsContext 11.00

5.83 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.67

40% On target shareContext 33%

11.50 Shots in the boxContext 6.33

78% Box shareContext 56%

11% ConversionContext 9%

2.00 OffsidesContext 2.00

17.50 Shots allowedContext 19.17

7.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.67

5.00 BlocksContext 5.33

4.67 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.50

67% Save rateContext 62%

51% PossessionIn forecast 40%

436 PassesContext 346

353 Accurate passesContext 270

81% Pass accuracyContext 78%

6.86 Team ratingContext 6.54

10.33 FoulsContext 14.17

13.17 Fouls sufferedContext 12.83

2.33 Yellow cardsContext 1.33

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 6 and 6 games

1.60 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.30

2.40 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.10

1.60 xGVia Att/Def 1.11

1.75 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.63

+0.00 Goals minus xGContext +0.19

90% Scored inContext 70%

10% Clean sheetsContext 10%

14.10 ShotsContext 11.60

5.80 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.00

41% On target shareContext 35%

9.60 Shots in the boxContext 6.90

68% Box shareContext 59%

11% ConversionContext 11%

2.22 OffsidesContext 1.86

15.70 Shots allowedContext 16.40

6.40 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.30

4.44 BlocksContext 4.56

4.20 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.40

66% Save rateContext 64%

53% PossessionIn forecast 40%

449 PassesContext 348

370 Accurate passesContext 275

82% Pass accuracyContext 79%

6.78 Team ratingContext 6.71

10.80 FoulsContext 12.40

12.10 Fouls sufferedContext 12.20

2.30 Yellow cardsContext 1.50

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Eintracht Frankfurt LWDLW

Rest8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km355 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 52 · 7 pts vs 6.8 for an average club · +0.7 vs expected

W16 OctH · 1.FC Köln1–01.8 xPts
L10 OctA · RB Leipzig0–60.8 xPts
D19 SepH · SC Freiburg2–21.3 xPts
W12 SepA · FSV Mainz 053–10.9 xPts
L6 SepH · FC Augsburg1–41.5 xPts

Hamburger SV LLWWW

Rest8.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel392 km440 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

Form 70 · 9 pts vs 6.6 for an average club · +3.6 vs expected

W17 OctH · VfB Stuttgart1–01.0 xPts
W10 OctA · 1899 Hoffenheim3–20.9 xPts
W19 SepH · 1.FC Köln2–11.5 xPts
L13 SepA · RB Leipzig0–50.6 xPts
L6 SepH · FSV Mainz 050–51.4 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Eintracht Frankfurt	Hamburger SV
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	8Bundesliga 2026-2027, 24 Oct	8.1Bundesliga 2026-2027, 24 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	392 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	355 km	440 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 3	0 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	5.9	5.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Eintracht Frankfurt Last XI · not confirmed

4-4-2 · vs 1.FC Köln (H) 1–0, 16 Oct

1N. Atubolu(G)

26K. Kosugi 3L. Brassier 4R. Koch 34P. Collins

8F. Chaïbi 27M. Götze 25R. Onyedika 20R. Doan

11Y. Ebnoutalib 9J. Burkardt

Hamburger SV Last XI · not confirmed

3-5-2 · vs VfB Stuttgart (H) 1–0, 17 Oct

1D. Heuer Fernandes(G)

17W. Omari 33S. Bornauw 24N. Capaldo

37Louis Lemke 28M. Muheim 4B. Nadir 5M. Adeline 3D. Møller Wolfe

15Y. Poulsen 20Fábio Vieira

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Eintracht Frankfurt No reported absences

Hamburger SV No reported absences

Total impact vs full squads

Eintracht Frankfurt+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Hamburger SV+0.0 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Eintracht Frankfurt · Home 1.33points per game · 3 home games

W-D-L: 1-1-1
Scored: 1.33
Conceded: 2.00

Hamburger SV · Away 1.00points per game · 3 away games

W-D-L: 1-0-2
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 3.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 3 this season

Opponent	Eintracht Frankfurt	Hamburger SV
1.FC Köln	W 1–0 H	W 2–1 H
RB Leipzig	L 0–6 A	L 0–5 A
FSV Mainz 05	W 3–1 A	L 0–5 H
Points	6 of 9 · 2.00 per game	3 of 9 · 1.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings

0 Eintracht Frankfurt wins1 draws1 Hamburger SV wins

Goals per game1.00 – 1.50 Over 2.550% Both scored100% Clean sheets0% · 0%

2 May 2026Eintracht Frankfurt1–2Hamburger SV
20 Dec 2025Hamburger SV1–1Eintracht Frankfurt

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Eintracht Frankfurt	Hamburger SV	Forecast
Scored per game	1.67	1.00
Conceded per game	2.67	2.50
Match goals	4.33	3.50	3.47
Over 1.5	83%	83%
Over 2.5	83%	67%	67%
Over 3.5	83%	50%
Both teams scored	67%	33%	67%
Clean sheets	17%	17%
Failed to score	17%	50%
Games	6	6

	Eintracht Frankfurt	Hamburger SV	Forecast
Scored per game	1.60	1.30
Conceded per game	2.40	2.10
Match goals	4.00	3.40	3.47
Over 1.5	90%	90%
Over 2.5	80%	70%	67%
Over 3.5	70%	40%
Both teams scored	80%	60%	67%
Clean sheets	10%	10%
Failed to score	10%	30%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Eintracht Frankfurt	Hamburger SV	League
Corners
Corners won	5.33	3.83
Corners conceded	4.00	6.00
Match total	9.33	9.83	10.72
Over 8.5	67% 4/6	67% 4/6
Over 9.5	33% 2/6	50% 3/6
Over 10.5	17% 1/6	33% 2/6
Cards
Cards	2.33	1.33
Opponent cards	1.33	2.17
Match total	3.66	3.50	3.51
Over 3.5	67% 4/6	50% 3/6
Over 4.5	17% 1/6	0% 0/6

	Eintracht Frankfurt	Hamburger SV	League
Corners
Corners won	5.60	3.60
Corners conceded	4.80	6.40
Match total	10.40	10.00	10.72
Over 8.5	70% 7/10	70% 7/10
Over 9.5	50% 5/10	50% 5/10
Over 10.5	40% 4/10	40% 4/10
Cards
Cards	2.40	1.50
Opponent cards	1.60	2.60
Match total	4.00	4.10	3.51
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.