Werder Bremen vs 1899 Hoffenheim

Bundesliga Gameweek 8 Sat, Oct 31 · 14:30 wohninvest WESERSTADION, Bremen

Werder Bremen 8th · 9 pts · 6 played WDWDD

VS— Compare

1899 Hoffenheim 14th · 6 pts · 6 played LWLLW

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Werder Bremen are slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Werder Bremen. Werder Bremen have 7 days of rest, 1899 Hoffenheim 6 and have to travel 425 km. Conditions look neutral.

Away travel425 kmRest days7 · 6Matches / 14d1 · 3

Werder Bremen50%

Draw22%

1899 Hoffenheim28%

Expected goals 2.10 – 1.56

Werder Bremen40%

Draw27%

1899 Hoffenheim33%

Expected goals 1.42 – 1.26

Werder Bremen50%

Draw22%

1899 Hoffenheim28%

Expected goals 2.10 – 1.56

Werder Bremen41%

Draw23%

1899 Hoffenheim36%

Expected goals 1.87 – 1.75

Werder Bremen49%

Draw23%

1899 Hoffenheim28%

Expected goals 1.93 – 1.41

Over 2.5 71% Both score 70% Likeliest score 1–1

EloLambda forecast, updated 8 hours ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Bremen)

12°COvercast

Precipitation 20%
Wind 11 km/h
Humidity 91%

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Defence

Streaks

Team strength

Werder Bremen

1899 Hoffenheim

43 L90 StrengthIn forecast 49

43 Current StrengthIn forecast 49

56 AttackIn forecast 46

45 DefenceIn forecast 43

71 Form indexContext 15

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Werder Bremen

Attack+10%

Defense risk−9%

1899 Hoffenheim

Attack+7%

Defense risk−5%

Both teams face a more favorable matchup than their league-average baseline.

Playing style

Werder Bremen

1899 Hoffenheim

2.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.83

2.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.33

1.58 xGVia Att/Def 1.70

1.68 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.40

+0.42 Goals minus xGContext +0.13

100% Scored inContext 100%

0% Clean sheetsContext 0%

14.00 ShotsContext 17.83

6.83 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.33

49% On target shareContext 30%

9.67 Shots in the boxContext 11.00

66% Box shareContext 61%

14% ConversionContext 10%

2.17 OffsidesContext 2.20

15.33 Shots allowedContext 13.50

5.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.50

4.50 BlocksContext 4.33

3.33 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.33

61% Save rateContext 52%

47% PossessionIn forecast 57%

476 PassesContext 499

400 Accurate passesContext 405

84% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.96 Team ratingContext 6.83

12.00 FoulsContext 13.33

11.17 Fouls sufferedContext 10.00

1.17 Yellow cardsContext 2.00

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 6 and 6 games

1.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.40

1.90 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.30

1.31 xGVia Att/Def 1.56

1.81 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.52

+0.09 Goals minus xGContext -0.16

80% Scored inContext 80%

0% Clean sheetsContext 10%

12.70 ShotsContext 16.60

5.30 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.70

42% On target shareContext 28%

8.44 Shots in the boxContext 10.30

62% Box shareContext 62%

11% ConversionContext 8%

2.44 OffsidesContext 2.14

15.70 Shots allowedContext 12.90

5.60 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.20

4.40 BlocksContext 4.10

3.70 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.10

66% Save rateContext 50%

46% PossessionIn forecast 59%

458 PassesContext 515

380 Accurate passesContext 426

83% Pass accuracyContext 83%

6.93 Team ratingContext 6.72

10.30 FoulsContext 14.00

8.80 Fouls sufferedContext 9.00

1.10 Yellow cardsContext 2.50

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Werder Bremen WDWDD

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km692 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 71 · 9 pts vs 6.6 for an average club · +3.6 vs expected

D17 OctH · SC Paderborn 072–21.7 xPts
D9 OctA · Borussia Dortmund2–20.5 xPts
W19 SepH · FC Augsburg3–21.2 xPts
D12 SepA · 1.FC Köln1–11.1 xPts
W5 SepH · RB Leipzig3–10.8 xPts

1899 Hoffenheim LLLLW

Rest6 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel425 km552 km in 14d

Schedule load21%Moderate

Form 15 · 3 pts vs 7.9 for an average club · -5.0 vs expected

W18 OctA · Borussia Mönchengladbach2–11.2 xPts
L15 OctH · Besiktas2–31.5 xPts
L10 OctH · Hamburger SV2–31.9 xPts
L20 SepA · SC Paderborn 071–31.4 xPts
L17 SepA · OFI0–21.9 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Werder Bremen	1899 Hoffenheim
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Moderate · 21
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7Bundesliga 2026-2027, 24 Oct	6Bundesliga 2026-2027, 25 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	425 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	692 km	552 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 3	1 / 3 / 5
Next matchdays after this one	7.1	5.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Werder Bremen Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs SC Paderborn 07 (H) 2–2, 17 Oct

1K. Hein(G)

2O. Deman 32M. Friedl 5A. Pieper 13Arthur

44Y. Regeer 15L. Reis

17M. Grüll 20Chuky 18E. Dinkçi

10N. Füllkrug

1899 Hoffenheim Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Borussia Mönchengladbach (A) 2–1, 18 Oct

1O. Baumann(G)

39M. Rots 28K. Machida 2R. Hranáč 34V. Coufal

22A. Prass 7L. Avdullahu

10A. Hložek 11F. Asllani 20B. Conté

19T. Lemperle

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Werder Bremen No reported absences

1899 Hoffenheim No reported absences

Total impact vs full squads

Werder Bremen+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
1899 Hoffenheim+0.0 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Werder Bremen · Home 2.33points per game · 3 home games

W-D-L: 2-1-0
Scored: 2.67
Conceded: 1.67

1899 Hoffenheim · Away 1.00points per game · 3 away games

W-D-L: 1-0-2
Scored: 1.67
Conceded: 2.33

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 3 this season

Opponent	Werder Bremen	1899 Hoffenheim
SC Paderborn 07	D 2–2 H	L 1–3 A
Borussia Dortmund	D 2–2 A	L 2–3 H
1.FC Köln	D 1–1 A	L 2–3 A
Points	3 of 9 · 1.00 per game	0 of 9 · 0.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

2 Werder Bremen wins0 draws6 1899 Hoffenheim wins

Goals per game1.38 – 2.13 Over 2.575% Both scored75% Clean sheets0% · 25%

9 May 20261899 Hoffenheim1–0Werder Bremen
27 Jan 2026Werder Bremen0–21899 Hoffenheim
16 Feb 2025Werder Bremen1–31899 Hoffenheim
29 Sep 20241899 Hoffenheim3–4Werder Bremen
3 Mar 20241899 Hoffenheim2–1Werder Bremen
7 Oct 2023Werder Bremen2–31899 Hoffenheim

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Werder Bremen	1899 Hoffenheim	Forecast
Scored per game	2.00	1.83
Conceded per game	2.00	2.33
Match goals	4.00	4.17	3.66
Over 1.5	100%	100%
Over 2.5	83%	100%	71%
Over 3.5	83%	67%
Both teams scored	100%	100%	70%
Clean sheets	0%	0%
Failed to score	0%	0%
Games	6	6

	Werder Bremen	1899 Hoffenheim	Forecast
Scored per game	1.40	1.40
Conceded per game	1.90	2.30
Match goals	3.30	3.70	3.66
Over 1.5	90%	90%
Over 2.5	60%	80%	71%
Over 3.5	60%	60%
Both teams scored	80%	70%	70%
Clean sheets	0%	10%
Failed to score	20%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Werder Bremen	1899 Hoffenheim	League
Corners
Corners won	3.67	6.67
Corners conceded	5.83	4.67
Match total	9.50	11.34	10.72
Over 8.5	67% 4/6	100% 6/6
Over 9.5	50% 3/6	83% 5/6
Over 10.5	50% 3/6	67% 4/6
Cards
Cards	1.17	2.17
Opponent cards	1.33	0.67
Match total	2.50	2.84	3.51
Over 3.5	17% 1/6	33% 2/6
Over 4.5	0% 0/6	17% 1/6

	Werder Bremen	1899 Hoffenheim	League
Corners
Corners won	3.90	7.10
Corners conceded	6.40	4.20
Match total	10.30	11.30	10.72
Over 8.5	80% 8/10	100% 10/10
Over 9.5	60% 6/10	90% 9/10
Over 10.5	50% 5/10	70% 7/10
Cards
Cards	1.20	2.70
Opponent cards	1.00	1.40
Match total	2.20	4.10	3.51
Over 3.5	20% 2/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	0% 0/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.