FC Schalke 04
Attack−3%
Defense risk+20%
Our take
RB Leipzig are slight favourites.
RB Leipzig are the stronger side on L90 Strength (68 vs 46). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for RB Leipzig. FC Schalke 04 have 7 days of rest, RB Leipzig 7 and have to travel 366 km. Conditions look neutral.
Away travel366 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 3
FC Schalke 0430%
Draw23%
RB Leipzig47%
FC Schalke 0431%
Draw27%
RB Leipzig43%
FC Schalke 0430%
Draw23%
RB Leipzig47%
FC Schalke 0423%
Draw21%
RB Leipzig56%
FC Schalke 0430%
Draw24%
RB Leipzig46%
Over 2.5 67%
Both score 67%
Likeliest score 1–1
EloLambda forecast, updated 8 hours ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Gelsenkirchen)
13°CMainly clear
- Precipitation 24%
- Wind 9 km/h
- Humidity 82%
Referee—Not appointed yet
Key insights
Automatic descriptive highlights for FC Schalke 04 and RB Leipzig. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.
Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.
xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.
Headlines
-
Insight
RB Leipzig
+0.35
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.92xG against1.57
-
Insight
RB Leipzig
4
Clean sheets
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet -
Trend
RB Leipzig
2.3
Goals scored per match
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Attack
Defence
Streaks
Not enough recorded data for this category yet.
Team strength
FC Schalke 04RB Leipzig
46
L90 StrengthIn forecast
68
46
Current StrengthIn forecast
67
33
AttackIn forecast
76
50
DefenceIn forecast
53
41
Form indexContext
78
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisRB Leipzig
Attack+1%
Defense risk−23%
Changes versus each team's league-average baseline. Higher attack and lower defense risk are favorable.
Playing style
FC Schalke 04RB Leipzig
0.67
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.67
1.17
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.83
1.08
xGVia Att/Def
2.13
1.87
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.76
-0.41
Goals minus xGContext
+0.54
33%
Scored inContext
83%
33%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
10.17
ShotsContext
17.67
3.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.50
34%
On target shareContext
37%
7.80
Shots in the boxContext
12.67
72%
Box shareContext
69%
7%
ConversionContext
15%
3.00
OffsidesContext
1.25
15.17
Shots allowedContext
17.00
6.17
On target allowedVia Att/Def
7.83
4.50
BlocksContext
4.00
5.17
Goalkeeper savesContext
6.00
84%
Save rateContext
77%
40%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
349
PassesContext
508
243
Accurate passesContext
441
70%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.85
Team ratingContext
7.11
9.33
FoulsContext
9.83
11.50
Fouls sufferedContext
13.50
0.83
Yellow cardsContext
1.00
0.17
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.10
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.00
1.32
xGVia Att/Def
1.92
1.50
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.57
-0.42
Goals minus xGContext
+0.18
50%
Scored inContext
90%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
11.00
ShotsContext
16.40
3.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.90
36%
On target shareContext
36%
8.67
Shots in the boxContext
11.60
75%
Box shareContext
69%
8%
ConversionContext
13%
2.63
OffsidesContext
1.29
12.70
Shots allowedContext
14.20
4.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.50
3.40
BlocksContext
3.00
3.80
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.50
79%
Save rateContext
69%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
380
PassesContext
508
278
Accurate passesContext
443
73%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.84
Team ratingContext
6.97
8.90
FoulsContext
9.30
11.40
Fouls sufferedContext
12.30
1.10
Yellow cardsContext
1.30
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
FC Schalke 04
DWDLL
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km129 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 41 · 5 pts vs 6.0 for an average club · -0.4 vs expected
RB Leipzig
WLWWL
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel366 km4,185 km in 14d
Schedule load31%Moderate
Form 78 · 9 pts vs 5.5 for an average club · +1.7 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| FC Schalke 04 |
RB Leipzig |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Moderate · 31 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Bundesliga 2026-2027, 24 Oct | 7Bundesliga 2026-2027, 24 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 366 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 129 km | 4,185 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 3 / 5 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8.2 | 4.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
FC Schalke 04
Last XI · not confirmed
1L. Karius(G)
4H. Kuruçay
25N. Katić
5T. Becker
8R. Gosens
13Satoshi Tanaka
23S. El-Faouzi
17A. Gantenbein
24A. Aouchiche
19K. Karaman
10E. Džeko
RB Leipzig
Last XI · not confirmed
26M. Vandevoordt(G)
22D. Raum
23C. Lukeba
4V. Orbán
16L. Klostermann
7A. Nusa
6E. Banzuzi
21N. El Aynaoui
20R. Reitz
10B. Gruda
28C. Nkunku
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences FC Schalke 04
No reported absences
RB Leipzig
No reported absences
Total impact vs full squads
- FC Schalke 04+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- RB Leipzig+0.0 pp
From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.
Home / Away this season
FC Schalke 04 · Home
0.67points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-2-1
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 0.33
RB Leipzig · Away
0.00points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-3
- Scored
- 0.67
- Conceded
- 3.67
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | FC Schalke 04 | RB Leipzig |
|---|---|---|
| Bayern München | D 0–0 H | L 1–6 A |
| Points | 1 of 3 · 1.00 per game | 0 of 3 · 0.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
0 FC Schalke 04 wins0 draws2 RB Leipzig wins
Goals per game1.50 – 5.00
Over 2.5100%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 27 May 2023RB Leipzig4–2FC Schalke 04
- 24 Jan 2023FC Schalke 041–6RB Leipzig
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| FC Schalke 04 | RB Leipzig | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.67 | 2.67 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.17 | 1.83 | |
| Match goals | 1.83 | 4.50 | 3.44 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 83% | 67% |
| Over 3.5 | 17% | 67% | |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 33% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 67% | 17% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
| FC Schalke 04 | RB Leipzig | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.67 | 2.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.17 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 1.83 | 4.10 | 3.44 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 80% | 67% |
| Over 3.5 | 17% | 60% | |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 50% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 67% | 10% | |
| Games | 6 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| FC Schalke 04 | RB Leipzig | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.60 | 5.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.40 | 6.83 | |
| Match total | 9.00 | 12.33 | 10.72 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 3/5 | 100% 6/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 20% 1/5 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 1/5 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.17 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 3.17 | 2.50 | 3.51 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 3/6 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/6 | 17% 1/6 | |
| FC Schalke 04 | RB Leipzig | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.44 | 4.80 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.89 | 5.70 | |
| Match total | 8.33 | 10.50 | 10.72 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 5/9 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 22% 2/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 11% 1/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.20 | 1.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 1.30 | |
| Match total | 3.10 | 2.60 | 3.51 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
FC Schalke 046 games · scored 4 · conceded 7
1
0-15
2
2
16-30
31-45
1
46-60
61-75
1
4
76-90
RB Leipzig6 games · scored 16 · conceded 11
2
2
0-15
3
1
16-30
2
2
31-45
2
3
46-60
3
2
61-75
4
1
76-90
FC Schalke 0410 games · scored 9 · conceded 12
1
2
0-15
2
4
16-30
3
1
31-45
1
46-60
1
61-75
2
4
76-90
RB Leipzig10 games · scored 21 · conceded 20
2
3
0-15
3
3
16-30
4
3
31-45
4
5
46-60
4
3
61-75
4
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
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