Borussia Dortmund vs AEK Athens FC

UEFA Champions League Matchday 8 Wed, Jan 27 · 20:00 BVB Stadion Dortmund, Dortmund

Borussia Dortmund 18th · 3 pts · 2 played WL

VS— Compare

AEK Athens FC 20th · 3 pts · 2 played WL

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel1,969 kmRest days4.2 · 8Matches / 14d3 · 1

Real contextStrength only

Borussia Dortmund—%

Draw—%

AEK Athens FC—%

Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.

Weather (Dortmund)

Forecast from 12 Jan

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Defence

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Team strength

Borussia Dortmund

AEK Athens FC

— L90 StrengthIn forecast —

80 Current StrengthIn forecast 53

69 AttackIn forecast 50

80 DefenceIn forecast 57

61 Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Borussia Dortmund

Attack—

Defense risk—

AEK Athens FC

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Borussia Dortmund

AEK Athens FC

1.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00

1.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50

1.81 xGVia Att/Def 1.42

1.27 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.06

-0.31 Goals minus xGContext -0.42

50% Scored inContext 100%

0% Clean sheetsContext 50%

13.50 ShotsContext 15.50

5.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.50

37% On target shareContext 23%

8.00 Shots in the boxContext 9.00

58% Box shareContext 59%

11% ConversionContext 7%

2.00 OffsidesContext 2.00

12.00 Shots allowedContext 11.50

4.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.50

3.00 BlocksContext 3.50

3.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.00

78% Save rateContext 57%

52% PossessionIn forecast 48%

549 PassesContext 386

483 Accurate passesContext 328

88% Pass accuracyContext 85%

6.78 Team ratingContext 6.88

11.50 FoulsContext 12.00

8.50 Fouls sufferedContext 15.50

1.50 Yellow cardsContext 2.50

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 2 and 2 games

1.90 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.80

0.90 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.10

1.85 xGVia Att/Def 1.77

0.96 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.16

+0.05 Goals minus xGContext +0.03

80% Scored inContext 70%

50% Clean sheetsContext 50%

14.70 ShotsContext 14.90

5.70 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.30

39% On target shareContext 36%

10.30 Shots in the boxContext 10.00

72% Box shareContext 67%

13% ConversionContext 12%

1.63 OffsidesContext 1.80

11.20 Shots allowedContext 10.40

4.25 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.78

2.78 BlocksContext 2.44

3.25 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.56

77% Save rateContext 68%

54% PossessionIn forecast 51%

530 PassesContext 406

454 Accurate passesContext 346

86% Pass accuracyContext 85%

6.99 Team ratingContext 6.98

10.90 FoulsContext 13.90

10.40 Fouls sufferedContext 14.00

2.10 Yellow cardsContext 2.00

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Borussia Dortmund WWDLD

Rest4.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel0 km1,867 km in 14d

Schedule load20%Moderate

Form 61 · 8 pts vs 6.7 for an average club · -1.7 vs expected

D17 OctA · Union Berlin0–01.9 xPts
L14 OctA · Bodo/Glimt0–11.6 xPts
D9 OctH · Werder Bremen2–22.3 xPts
W19 SepA · VfB Stuttgart1–01.6 xPts
W12 SepH · SC Paderborn 073–02.3 xPts

AEK Athens FC WL

Rest8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel1,969 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load20%Moderate

Form 52 · 3 pts vs 2.8 for an average club · +0.2 vs expected

L14 OctA · Shakhtar Donetsk1–31.1 xPts
W8 SepH · Lask Linz1–01.7 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Borussia Dortmund	AEK Athens FC
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Moderate · 20	Moderate · 20
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	4.2Bundesliga 2026-2027, 23 Jan	8UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - League phase, 19 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	1,969 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	1,867 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 3 / 5	0 / 1 / 1
Next matchdays after this one	2.8	—

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Borussia Dortmund Last XI · not confirmed

3-4-2-1 · vs Union Berlin (A) 0–0, 17 Oct

1G. Kobel(G)

4N. Schlotterbeck 3W. Anton 22J. Gadou

24D. Svensson 8F. Nmecha 7J. Bellingham 26J. Ryerson

14M. Beier 18E. Nwaneri

9S. Guirassy

AEK Athens FC Last XI · not confirmed

4-4-2 · vs Shakhtar Donetsk (A) 1–3, 14 Oct

91A. Brignoli(G)

3S. Pilios 44Filipe Relvas 2H. Moukoudi 12L. Rota

11A. Koita 18R. Marin 27M. Vitális 14L. Majer

9L. Jović 90Zine

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Borussia Dortmund Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh

AEK Athens FC Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh

Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Borussia Dortmund · Home 3.00points per game · 1 home games

W-D-L: 1-0-0
Scored: 3.00
Conceded: 2.00

AEK Athens FC · Away 0.00points per game · 1 away games

W-D-L: 0-0-1
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 3.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	Borussia Dortmund	AEK Athens FC
Scored per game	1.50	1.00
Conceded per game	1.50	1.50
Match goals	3.00	2.50
Over 1.5	50%	50%
Over 2.5	50%	50%
Over 3.5	50%	50%
Both teams scored	50%	50%
Clean sheets	0%	50%
Failed to score	50%	0%
Games	2	2

	Borussia Dortmund	AEK Athens FC
Scored per game	1.90	1.50
Conceded per game	0.90	0.75
Match goals	2.80	2.25
Over 1.5	70%	50%
Over 2.5	50%	50%
Over 3.5	40%	50%
Both teams scored	40%	25%
Clean sheets	50%	75%
Failed to score	20%	25%
Games	10	4

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Borussia Dortmund	AEK Athens FC	League
Corners
Corners won	9.00	4.50
Corners conceded	5.50	4.00
Match total	14.50	8.50	9.71
Over 8.5	100% 2/2	50% 1/2
Over 9.5	100% 2/2	50% 1/2
Over 10.5	100% 2/2	0% 0/2
Cards
Cards	1.50	2.50
Opponent cards	1.50	1.50
Match total	3.00	4.00	3.80
Over 3.5	50% 1/2	50% 1/2
Over 4.5	0% 0/2	50% 1/2

	Borussia Dortmund	AEK Athens FC	League
Corners
Corners won	5.80	5.60
Corners conceded	4.50	2.80
Match total	10.30	8.40	9.71
Over 8.5	70% 7/10	50% 5/10
Over 9.5	60% 6/10	30% 3/10
Over 10.5	40% 4/10	20% 2/10
Cards
Cards	2.20	2.00
Opponent cards	1.50	1.60
Match total	3.70	3.60	3.80
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.