Bundesliga Gameweek 11 Sun, Nov 29 · 18:30 BVB Stadion Dortmund, Dortmund
Borussia Dortmund 2nd · 14 pts · 6 played
VS— Compare
Bayer Leverkusen 4th · 13 pts · 6 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel63 kmRest days4.9 · 3Matches / 14d2 · 2
Real contextStrength only
Borussia Dortmund—%
Draw—%
Bayer Leverkusen—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Dortmund)

Forecast from 14 Nov

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Borussia Dortmund and Bayer Leverkusen. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

Borussia DortmundBayer Leverkusen
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
81 Current StrengthIn forecast 78
76 AttackIn forecast 87
79 DefenceIn forecast 79
63 Form indexContext 94
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Borussia Dortmund

Attack—
Defense risk—

Bayer Leverkusen

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Borussia DortmundBayer Leverkusen
1.83 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.67
0.67 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50
1.76 xGVia Att/Def 2.19
0.92 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.16
+0.07 Goals minus xGContext +0.48
83% Scored inContext 100%
67% Clean sheetsContext 33%
15.17 ShotsContext 19.67
5.17 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.17
34% On target shareContext 31%
10.50 Shots in the boxContext 13.83
73% Box shareContext 71%
12% ConversionContext 14%
1.50 OffsidesContext 1.33
11.67 Shots allowedContext 11.50
4.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.20
2.80 BlocksContext 2.67
3.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.20
78% Save rateContext 52%
55% PossessionIn forecast 58%
530 PassesContext 539
450 Accurate passesContext 470
85% Pass accuracyContext 87%
7.04 Team ratingContext 7.02
11.17 FoulsContext 12.33
11.83 Fouls sufferedContext 10.00
2.50 Yellow cardsContext 1.33
0.17 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 6 and 6 games
1.80 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.40
0.80 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.30
2.04 xGVia Att/Def 2.35
1.00 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.25
-0.24 Goals minus xGContext +0.05
80% Scored inContext 100%
50% Clean sheetsContext 40%
15.60 ShotsContext 18.50
5.80 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.60
37% On target shareContext 36%
10.80 Shots in the boxContext 13.30
71% Box shareContext 71%
12% ConversionContext 13%
1.67 OffsidesContext 1.89
11.60 Shots allowedContext 12.20
4.25 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.56
2.78 BlocksContext 3.10
3.38 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.89
79% Save rateContext 63%
54% PossessionIn forecast 58%
526 PassesContext 537
449 Accurate passesContext 470
85% Pass accuracyContext 88%
6.98 Team ratingContext 7.06
10.70 FoulsContext 11.90
10.40 Fouls sufferedContext 9.80
1.80 Yellow cardsContext 1.20
0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Borussia Dortmund
Rest4.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,210 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 63 · 8 pts vs 6.5 for an average club · -1.4 vs expected
  • W20 OctA · Sabah FA2–12.1 xPts
  • D17 OctA · Union Berlin0–01.9 xPts
  • L14 OctA · Bodo/Glimt0–11.6 xPts
  • D9 OctH · Werder Bremen2–22.3 xPts
  • W19 SepA · VfB Stuttgart1–01.6 xPts
Bayer Leverkusen
Rest3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel63 km1,761 km in 14d
Schedule load13%Low
Form 94 · 15 pts vs 7.2 for an average club · +5.2 vs expected
  • W18 OctH · SC Freiburg2–12.1 xPts
  • W15 OctA · Lech Poznan4–01.9 xPts
  • W10 OctA · FSV Mainz 054–31.6 xPts
  • W20 SepH · RB Leipzig2–01.7 xPts
  • W16 SepH · Celje2–02.6 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Borussia Dortmund Bayer Leverkusen
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 13
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match4.9UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - League phase, 24 Nov3UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - League phase, 26 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km63 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways1,210 km1,761 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 2 / 41 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one5.85.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Borussia Dortmund Last XI · not confirmed
3-4-2-1 · vs Sabah FA (A) 2–1, 20 Oct
1G. Kobel(G)
5A. Bensebaini 4N. Schlotterbeck 3W. Anton
24D. Svensson 25J. Veerman 8F. Nmecha 26J. Ryerson
21Fábio Silva 17C. Chukwuemeka
9S. Guirassy
Bayer Leverkusen Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs SC Freiburg (H) 2–1, 18 Oct
1M. Flekken(G)
3Miguel Gutiérrez 2F. Medina 12E. Tapsoba 4J. Quansah
6E. Fernández 24Aleix García
9Afonso Moreira 30I. Maza 19M. Diaby
14P. Schick

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Borussia Dortmund Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Bayer Leverkusen Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Borussia Dortmund · Home 2.33points per game · 3 home games
W-D-L
2-1-0
Scored
2.33
Conceded
0.67
Bayer Leverkusen · Away 1.33points per game · 3 away games
W-D-L
1-1-1
Scored
2.67
Conceded
2.67

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 1 this season

OpponentBorussia DortmundBayer Leverkusen
Union Berlin D 0–0 A W 4–0 H
Points1 of 3 · 1.00 per game3 of 3 · 3.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings

5 Borussia Dortmund wins2 draws3 Bayer Leverkusen wins
Goals per game1.90 – 1.70 Over 2.550% Both scored70% Clean sheets20% · 10%
  • 11 Apr 2026Borussia Dortmund0–1Bayer Leverkusen
  • 29 Nov 2025Bayer Leverkusen1–2Borussia Dortmund
  • 11 May 2025Bayer Leverkusen2–4Borussia Dortmund
  • 10 Jan 2025Borussia Dortmund2–3Bayer Leverkusen
  • 21 Apr 2024Borussia Dortmund1–1Bayer Leverkusen
  • 3 Dec 2023Bayer Leverkusen1–1Borussia Dortmund

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

Borussia DortmundBayer LeverkusenForecast
Scored per game 1.832.67
Conceded per game 0.671.50
Match goals 2.504.17
Over 1.5 67%100%
Over 2.5 50%83%
Over 3.5 33%67%
Both teams scored 33%67%
Clean sheets 67%33%
Failed to score 17%0%
Games66
Borussia DortmundBayer LeverkusenForecast
Scored per game 1.802.40
Conceded per game 0.801.30
Match goals 2.603.70
Over 1.5 70%100%
Over 2.5 50%70%
Over 3.5 30%60%
Both teams scored 40%60%
Clean sheets 50%40%
Failed to score 20%0%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

Borussia DortmundBayer LeverkusenLeague
Corners
Corners won4.837.33
Corners conceded4.673.33
Match total9.5010.6610.72
Over 8.567% 4/650% 3/6
Over 9.567% 4/650% 3/6
Over 10.533% 2/650% 3/6
Cards
Cards2.671.33
Opponent cards2.002.17
Match total4.673.503.51
Over 3.567% 4/667% 4/6
Over 4.550% 3/633% 2/6
Borussia DortmundBayer LeverkusenLeague
Corners
Corners won6.106.70
Corners conceded4.703.50
Match total10.8010.2010.72
Over 8.580% 8/1060% 6/10
Over 9.570% 7/1040% 4/10
Over 10.550% 5/1040% 4/10
Cards
Cards1.901.20
Opponent cards1.901.80
Match total3.803.003.51
Over 3.560% 6/1040% 4/10
Over 4.530% 3/1020% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Borussia Dortmund6 games · scored 11 · conceded 4
2 0-15
16-30
1 1 31-45
1 46-60
3 61-75
5 2 76-90
Bayer Leverkusen6 games · scored 16 · conceded 9
3 3 0-15
3 16-30
1 2 31-45
3 3 46-60
2 61-75
4 1 76-90
Borussia Dortmund10 games · scored 18 · conceded 8
3 0-15
16-30
1 2 31-45
3 2 46-60
3 1 61-75
8 3 76-90
Bayer Leverkusen10 games · scored 24 · conceded 13
5 4 0-15
4 16-30
3 3 31-45
3 4 46-60
3 1 61-75
6 1 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures Bundesliga

View all fixtures →
Werder Bremen Borussia Mönchengladbach Nov 2719:30 FSV Mainz 05 Union Berlin Nov 2814:30 Hamburger SV Bayern München Nov 2814:30 SC Paderborn 07 FC Schalke 04 Nov 2814:30 1.FC Köln SV Elversberg Nov 2814:30 VfB Stuttgart Eintracht Frankfurt Nov 2817:30 SC Freiburg RB Leipzig Nov 2914:30 1899 Hoffenheim FC Augsburg Nov 2916:30 Borussia Dortmund Bayer Leverkusen Nov 2918:30