SC Paderborn 07
Attack—
Defense risk—
SC Paderborn 07
16th · 5 pts · 6 played
LLWLD
VS—
Compare
FC Schalke 04
15th · 5 pts · 6 played
DWDLL
Our take
No forecast yet.
Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.
Away travel117 kmRest days7 · 6.9Matches / 14d1 · 1
Real contextStrength only
SC Paderborn 07—%
Draw—%
FC Schalke 04—%
Weather (Paderborn)
Forecast from 13 Nov
Referee—Not appointed yet
Key insights
Automatic descriptive highlights for SC Paderborn 07 and FC Schalke 04. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.
Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.
xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.
Headlines
Attack
Not enough recorded data for this category yet.
Defence
Streaks
Not enough recorded data for this category yet.
Team strength
SC Paderborn 07FC Schalke 04
—
L90 StrengthIn forecast
—
38
Current StrengthIn forecast
46
34
AttackIn forecast
33
33
DefenceIn forecast
50
33
Form indexContext
41
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisFC Schalke 04
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
SC Paderborn 07FC Schalke 04
0.83
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.67
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.17
0.90
xGVia Att/Def
1.08
1.84
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.87
-0.07
Goals minus xGContext
-0.41
33%
Scored inContext
33%
17%
Clean sheetsContext
33%
13.50
ShotsContext
10.17
4.25
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.50
21%
On target shareContext
34%
7.67
Shots in the boxContext
7.80
58%
Box shareContext
72%
6%
ConversionContext
7%
1.20
OffsidesContext
3.00
18.17
Shots allowedContext
15.17
6.33
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.17
6.33
BlocksContext
4.50
4.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
5.17
74%
Save rateContext
84%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
40%
443
PassesContext
349
357
Accurate passesContext
243
81%
Pass accuracyContext
70%
6.88
Team ratingContext
6.85
10.50
FoulsContext
9.33
10.83
Fouls sufferedContext
11.50
1.33
Yellow cardsContext
0.83
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.17
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.90
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
1.16
xGVia Att/Def
1.32
1.69
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.50
-0.06
Goals minus xGContext
-0.42
50%
Scored inContext
50%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
14.50
ShotsContext
11.00
4.75
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.90
26%
On target shareContext
36%
10.38
Shots in the boxContext
8.67
60%
Box shareContext
75%
8%
ConversionContext
8%
1.33
OffsidesContext
2.63
16.00
Shots allowedContext
12.70
5.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.80
5.11
BlocksContext
3.40
4.60
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.80
79%
Save rateContext
79%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
451
PassesContext
380
366
Accurate passesContext
278
81%
Pass accuracyContext
73%
6.94
Team ratingContext
6.84
10.80
FoulsContext
8.90
10.60
Fouls sufferedContext
11.40
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
1.10
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
SC Paderborn 07
LLWLD
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km290 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 33 · 4 pts vs 6.0 for an average club · -1.3 vs expected
FC Schalke 04
DWDLL
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel117 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 41 · 5 pts vs 6.0 for an average club · -0.4 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| SC Paderborn 07 |
FC Schalke 04 |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Bundesliga 2026-2027, 21 Nov | 6.9Bundesliga 2026-2027, 21 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 117 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 290 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
SC Paderborn 07
Last XI · not confirmed
15N. Noll(G)
22M. Hansen
25T. Scheller
21J. ter Horst
5S. Castañeda
23R. Obermair
40G. Vidović
28L. Ulrich
17L. Curda
27S. Tigges
30S. Marino
FC Schalke 04
Last XI · not confirmed
1L. Karius(G)
4H. Kuruçay
25N. Katić
5T. Becker
8R. Gosens
13Satoshi Tanaka
23S. El-Faouzi
17A. Gantenbein
24A. Aouchiche
19K. Karaman
10E. Džeko
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences SC Paderborn 07
Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
FC Schalke 04
Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads
—
Home / Away this season
SC Paderborn 07 · Home
1.00points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-2
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.33
FC Schalke 04 · Away
1.00points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-2
- Scored
- 1.33
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 2 this season
| Opponent | SC Paderborn 07 | FC Schalke 04 |
|---|---|---|
| SC Freiburg | L 0–1 H | L 1–2 A |
| FSV Mainz 05 | D 0–0 A | L 0–1 H |
| Points | 1 of 6 · 0.50 per game | 0 of 6 · 0.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
0 SC Paderborn 07 wins0 draws2 FC Schalke 04 wins
Goals per game1.50 – 2.50
Over 2.5100%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 26 Apr 2026SC Paderborn 072–3FC Schalke 04
- 28 Nov 2025FC Schalke 042–1SC Paderborn 07
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| SC Paderborn 07 | FC Schalke 04 | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.83 | 0.67 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.17 | |
| Match goals | 2.33 | 1.83 | |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 17% | |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 33% | |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 67% | 67% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
| SC Paderborn 07 | FC Schalke 04 | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.83 | 0.67 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.17 | |
| Match goals | 2.33 | 1.83 | |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 17% | |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 33% | |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 67% | 67% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| SC Paderborn 07 | FC Schalke 04 | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.33 | 3.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.17 | 5.40 | |
| Match total | 10.50 | 9.00 | 10.72 |
| Over 8.5 | 83% 5/6 | 60% 3/5 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 4/6 | 20% 1/5 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 3/6 | 20% 1/5 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.33 | 1.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.17 | 2.17 | |
| Match total | 2.50 | 3.17 | 3.51 |
| Over 3.5 | 17% 1/6 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Over 4.5 | 17% 1/6 | 0% 0/6 | |
| SC Paderborn 07 | FC Schalke 04 | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.10 | 3.44 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.70 | 4.89 | |
| Match total | 9.80 | 8.33 | 10.72 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 11% 1/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 1.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 3.70 | 3.10 | 3.51 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
SC Paderborn 076 games · scored 5 · conceded 9
1
0-15
3
2
16-30
1
31-45
2
46-60
1
1
61-75
3
76-90
FC Schalke 046 games · scored 4 · conceded 7
1
0-15
2
2
16-30
31-45
1
46-60
61-75
1
4
76-90
SC Paderborn 0710 games · scored 11 · conceded 12
1
2
0-15
4
2
16-30
2
31-45
2
46-60
1
2
61-75
3
4
76-90
FC Schalke 0410 games · scored 9 · conceded 12
1
2
0-15
2
4
16-30
3
1
31-45
1
46-60
1
61-75
2
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Soon
Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.
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