UEFA Champions League Matchday 6 Wed, Dec 9 · 20:00 Stade Bollaert-Delelis, Lens
Lens 19th · 3 pts · 2 played
VS— Compare
Bodo/Glimt 24th · 3 pts · 2 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel1,980 kmRest days4.2 · 15.1Matches / 14d2 · 0
Real contextStrength only
Lens—%
Draw—%
Bodo/Glimt—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Lens)

Forecast from 24 Nov

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Lens and Bodo/Glimt. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Team strength

LensBodo/Glimt
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
56 Current StrengthIn forecast 58
63 AttackIn forecast 61
53 DefenceIn forecast 64
51 Form indexContext —
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Lens

Attack—
Defense risk—

Bodo/Glimt

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

LensBodo/Glimt
1.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.50
2.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.50
— xGVia Att/Def —
— xG allowedVia Att/Def —
— Goals minus xGContext —
50% Scored inContext 50%
0% Clean sheetsContext 50%
23.50 ShotsContext 7.00
7.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def —
30% On target shareContext 21%
12.50 Shots in the boxContext 4.50
53% Box shareContext 65%
6% ConversionContext 7%
1.00 OffsidesContext 1.00
14.00 Shots allowedContext 17.00
5.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 8.00
5.00 BlocksContext 5.00
3.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 5.00
60% Save rateContext 63%
60% PossessionIn forecast 41%
493 PassesContext 453
421 Accurate passesContext 376
85% Pass accuracyContext 83%
6.58 Team ratingContext 6.54
8.00 FoulsContext 7.50
10.00 Fouls sufferedContext 6.50
1.50 Yellow cardsContext 0.50
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.50
This league season, per match · 2 and 2 games
2.10 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.10
1.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.80
2.25 xGVia Att/Def 1.42
1.45 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.62
-0.15 Goals minus xGContext +0.68
80% Scored inContext 80%
10% Clean sheetsContext 30%
16.40 ShotsContext 10.60
6.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.22
37% On target shareContext 44%
10.90 Shots in the boxContext 8.22
70% Box shareContext 73%
13% ConversionContext 20%
1.56 OffsidesContext 1.33
12.30 Shots allowedContext 18.70
4.80 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.30
3.44 BlocksContext 5.88
3.40 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.22
71% Save rateContext 68%
52% PossessionIn forecast 47%
474 PassesContext 504
405 Accurate passesContext 422
85% Pass accuracyContext 84%
6.86 Team ratingContext 7.09
10.80 FoulsContext 10.44
12.20 Fouls sufferedContext 9.22
2.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.40
0.10 Red cardsContext 0.10
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Lens
Rest4.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km823 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 51 · 7 pts vs 6.9 for an average club · -1.3 vs expected
  • W17 OctA · Estac Troyes3–12.2 xPts
  • L13 OctH · Sporting CP0–21.3 xPts
  • W9 OctH · Lyon2–11.6 xPts
  • L18 SepA · Monaco1–21.3 xPts
  • D13 SepA · Le Mans2–22.0 xPts
Bodo/Glimt
Rest15.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel1,980 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load20%Moderate
Form 65 · 3 pts vs 1.2 for an average club · +1.5 vs expected
  • W14 OctH · Borussia Dortmund1–01.2 xPts
  • L10 SepA · Bayern München0–50.4 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Lens Bodo/Glimt
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Moderate · 20
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match4.2Ligue 1 2026-2027, 5 Dec15.1UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - League phase, 24 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km1,980 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways823 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 2 / 40 / 0 / 1
Next matchdays after this one2.840.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Lens Last XI · not confirmed
3-4-2-1 · vs Estac Troyes (A) 3–1, 17 Oct
40R. Risser(G)
20J. Todibo 25P. Ganiou 32Kyllian Antonio
22M. Skóraś 5A. Bulatović 8Y. Titraoui 2R. Aguilar
7F. Sotoca 10F. Thauvin
11O. Édouard
Bodo/Glimt Last XI · not confirmed
4-4-2 · vs Borussia Dortmund (H) 1–0, 14 Oct
12N. Haikin(G)
15F. Bjørkan 5H. Aleesami 6J. Gundersen 20F. Sjøvold
10J. Hauge 19S. Fet 7P. Berg 8S. Auklend
9A. Helmersen 11O. Blomberg

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Lens Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Bodo/Glimt Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Lens · Home 0.00points per game · 1 home games
W-D-L
0-0-1
Scored
0.00
Conceded
2.00
Bodo/Glimt · Away 0.00points per game · 1 away games
W-D-L
0-0-1
Scored
0.00
Conceded
5.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

LensBodo/GlimtForecast
Scored per game 1.500.50
Conceded per game 2.002.50
Match goals 3.503.00
Over 1.5 100%50%
Over 2.5 50%50%
Over 3.5 50%50%
Both teams scored 50%0%
Clean sheets 0%50%
Failed to score 50%50%
Games22
LensBodo/GlimtForecast
Scored per game 2.102.17
Conceded per game 1.501.83
Match goals 3.604.00
Over 1.5 90%83%
Over 2.5 80%83%
Over 3.5 50%67%
Both teams scored 70%50%
Clean sheets 10%33%
Failed to score 20%17%
Games106

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

LensBodo/GlimtLeague
Corners
Corners won7.503.50
Corners conceded4.507.50
Match total12.0011.009.71
Over 8.5100% 2/2100% 2/2
Over 9.550% 1/250% 1/2
Over 10.550% 1/250% 1/2
Cards
Cards1.501.00
Opponent cards0.501.00
Match total2.002.003.80
Over 3.50% 0/20% 0/2
Over 4.50% 0/20% 0/2
LensBodo/GlimtLeague
Corners
Corners won6.783.89
Corners conceded5.897.22
Match total12.6711.119.71
Over 8.5100% 9/978% 7/9
Over 9.578% 7/944% 4/9
Over 10.556% 5/944% 4/9
Cards
Cards2.101.50
Opponent cards1.302.10
Match total3.403.603.80
Over 3.550% 5/1030% 3/10
Over 4.520% 2/1030% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Lens2 games · scored 3 · conceded 4
0-15
1 16-30
31-45
1 46-60
1 1 61-75
2 1 76-90
Bodo/Glimt2 games · scored 1 · conceded 5
0-15
16-30
31-45
1 1 46-60
1 61-75
3 76-90
Lens10 games · scored 21 · conceded 15
2 0-15
1 2 16-30
6 3 31-45
6 3 46-60
2 3 61-75
4 4 76-90
Bodo/Glimt10 games · scored 21 · conceded 18
0-15
4 2 16-30
5 2 31-45
4 1 46-60
5 3 61-75
3 10 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

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