UEFA Champions League Matchday 6 Tue, Dec 8 · 20:00 Old Trafford, Manchester
Manchester United 13th · 3 pts · 2 played
VS— Compare
RB Leipzig 21st · 3 pts · 2 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel1,017 kmRest days3.2 · 3.2Matches / 14d4 · 3
Real contextStrength only
Manchester United—%
Draw—%
RB Leipzig—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Manchester)

Forecast from 23 Nov

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Manchester United and RB Leipzig. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Team strength

Manchester UnitedRB Leipzig
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
77 Current StrengthIn forecast 67
72 AttackIn forecast 76
80 DefenceIn forecast 53
38 Form indexContext 78
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Manchester United

Attack—
Defense risk—

RB Leipzig

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Manchester UnitedRB Leipzig
2.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00
1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.00
— xGVia Att/Def —
— xG allowedVia Att/Def —
— Goals minus xGContext —
50% Scored inContext 100%
50% Clean sheetsContext 50%
14.00 ShotsContext 16.50
6.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.00
46% On target shareContext 30%
10.50 Shots in the boxContext 11.50
73% Box shareContext 68%
14% ConversionContext 6%
— OffsidesContext —
10.00 Shots allowedContext 11.50
— On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.50
3.50 BlocksContext 1.50
— Goalkeeper savesContext 3.50
67% Save rateContext 64%
50% PossessionIn forecast 47%
490 PassesContext 414
435 Accurate passesContext 361
89% Pass accuracyContext 87%
6.88 Team ratingContext 6.71
12.50 FoulsContext 11.00
12.00 Fouls sufferedContext 10.50
1.00 Yellow cardsContext 2.00
0.50 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 2 and 2 games
1.70 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.10
1.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.00
1.56 xGVia Att/Def 1.92
1.30 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.57
+0.14 Goals minus xGContext +0.18
70% Scored inContext 90%
20% Clean sheetsContext 40%
17.60 ShotsContext 16.40
5.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.90
31% On target shareContext 36%
10.50 Shots in the boxContext 11.60
60% Box shareContext 69%
10% ConversionContext 13%
2.29 OffsidesContext 1.29
11.00 Shots allowedContext 14.20
4.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.50
3.20 BlocksContext 3.00
2.78 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.50
69% Save rateContext 69%
53% PossessionIn forecast 54%
507 PassesContext 508
439 Accurate passesContext 443
87% Pass accuracyContext 87%
6.89 Team ratingContext 6.97
10.00 FoulsContext 9.30
11.50 Fouls sufferedContext 12.30
1.50 Yellow cardsContext 1.30
0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Manchester United
Rest3.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d4High congestion
Travel0 km3,788 km in 14d
Schedule load53%High
Form 38 · 3 pts vs 4.4 for an average club · -4.2 vs expected
  • D18 OctA · Leeds1–11.2 xPts
  • L13 OctA · Atletico Madrid0–21.1 xPts
  • D10 OctH · Tottenham1–12.1 xPts
  • D20 SepA · Fulham1–11.6 xPts
  • L13 SepH · Manchester City0–11.3 xPts
RB Leipzig
Rest3.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel1,017 km988 km in 14d
Schedule load35%Moderate
Form 78 · 9 pts vs 5.5 for an average club · +1.7 vs expected
  • L17 OctA · Bayern München1–60.5 xPts
  • W13 OctH · PSV Eindhoven1–01.6 xPts
  • W10 OctH · Eintracht Frankfurt6–02.0 xPts
  • L20 SepA · Bayer Leverkusen0–21.1 xPts
  • W13 SepH · Hamburger SV5–02.2 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Manchester United RB Leipzig
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextHigh · 53Moderate · 35
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastYesNo
Rest dayssince last match3.2Premier League 2026-2027, 5 Dec3.2Bundesliga 2026-2027, 5 Dec
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km1,017 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways3,788 km988 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days2 / 4 / 51 / 3 / 4
Next matchdays after this one3.83.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Manchester United Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Leeds (A) 1–1, 18 Oct
1S. Lammens(G)
2Diogo Dalot 6L. Martínez 5J. Maguire 15L. Yoro
20C. Baleba 17Andrey Santos
8Bruno Fernandes 18Y. Tielemans 16A. Diallo
19B. Mbeumo
RB Leipzig Last XI · not confirmed
4-5-1 · vs Bayern München (A) 1–6, 17 Oct
26M. Vandevoordt(G)
22D. Raum 23C. Lukeba 4V. Orbán 16L. Klostermann
7A. Nusa 6E. Banzuzi 21N. El Aynaoui 20R. Reitz 10B. Gruda
28C. Nkunku

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Manchester United Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
RB Leipzig Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Manchester United · Home 3.00points per game · 1 home games
W-D-L
1-0-0
Scored
4.00
Conceded
0.00
RB Leipzig · Away 0.00points per game · 1 away games
W-D-L
0-0-1
Scored
1.00
Conceded
4.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

Manchester UnitedRB LeipzigForecast
Scored per game 2.001.00
Conceded per game 1.002.00
Match goals 3.003.00
Over 1.5 100%50%
Over 2.5 50%50%
Over 3.5 50%50%
Both teams scored 0%50%
Clean sheets 50%50%
Failed to score 50%0%
Games22
Manchester UnitedRB LeipzigForecast
Scored per game 1.702.10
Conceded per game 1.202.00
Match goals 2.904.10
Over 1.5 90%90%
Over 2.5 40%80%
Over 3.5 30%60%
Both teams scored 50%50%
Clean sheets 20%40%
Failed to score 30%10%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

Manchester UnitedRB LeipzigLeague
Corners
Corners won5.005.00
Corners conceded2.005.00
Match total7.0010.009.71
Over 8.550% 1/250% 1/2
Over 9.50% 0/250% 1/2
Over 10.50% 0/250% 1/2
Cards
Cards1.502.00
Opponent cards1.502.00
Match total3.004.003.80
Over 3.550% 1/250% 1/2
Over 4.50% 0/250% 1/2
Manchester UnitedRB LeipzigLeague
Corners
Corners won5.894.80
Corners conceded3.225.70
Match total9.1110.509.71
Over 8.544% 4/970% 7/10
Over 9.533% 3/950% 5/10
Over 10.533% 3/950% 5/10
Cards
Cards1.601.30
Opponent cards2.301.30
Match total3.902.603.80
Over 3.560% 6/1030% 3/10
Over 4.520% 2/1020% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Manchester United2 games · scored 4 · conceded 2
1 0-15
1 16-30
2 31-45
46-60
1 61-75
1 76-90
RB Leipzig2 games · scored 2 · conceded 4
1 0-15
16-30
1 31-45
1 1 46-60
1 61-75
1 76-90
Manchester United10 games · scored 17 · conceded 12
1 0-15
1 2 16-30
6 1 31-45
3 2 46-60
4 1 61-75
3 5 76-90
RB Leipzig10 games · scored 21 · conceded 20
2 3 0-15
3 3 16-30
4 3 31-45
4 5 46-60
4 3 61-75
4 3 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures UEFA Champions League

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