AEK Athens FC
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
No forecast yet.
Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.
Away travel560 kmRest days14 · 4.1Matches / 14d1 · 2
Real contextStrength only
AEK Athens FC—%
Draw—%
Galatasaray—%
Weather (Athens)
Forecast from 23 Nov
Referee—Not appointed yet
Key insights
Automatic descriptive highlights for AEK Athens FC and Galatasaray. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.
Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.
xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.
Headlines
-
Insight
Galatasaray
+0.75
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.97xG against1.22
-
Trend
Galatasaray
60%
Both teams scored
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored -
Insight
Galatasaray
3
Clean sheets
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet -
Insight
AEK Athens FC
+0.61
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.77xG against1.16
Attack
-
Insight
Galatasaray
+0.75
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.97xG against1.22
-
Trend
Galatasaray
1.9
Goals scored per match
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
-
Trend
Galatasaray
60%
Both teams scored
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored -
Insight
AEK Athens FC
+0.61
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.77xG against1.16
Defence
-
Insight
Galatasaray
3
Clean sheets
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet -
Alert
Galatasaray
1.8
Goals conceded away per match
Last 5 recorded away matches
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Alert
Galatasaray
1.8
Goals conceded per match
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
Streaks
Not enough recorded data for this category yet.
Team strength
AEK Athens FCGalatasaray
—
L90 StrengthIn forecast
—
53
Current StrengthIn forecast
62
50
AttackIn forecast
57
57
DefenceIn forecast
55
—
Form indexContext
59
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGalatasaray
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
AEK Athens FCGalatasaray
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
3.50
1.42
xGVia Att/Def
0.85
1.06
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.27
-0.42
Goals minus xGContext
+0.15
100%
Scored inContext
100%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
15.50
ShotsContext
7.50
3.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.00
23%
On target shareContext
40%
9.00
Shots in the boxContext
5.50
59%
Box shareContext
70%
7%
ConversionContext
13%
2.00
OffsidesContext
—
11.50
Shots allowedContext
14.50
3.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
8.00
3.50
BlocksContext
3.00
2.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.50
57%
Save rateContext
44%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
386
PassesContext
402
328
Accurate passesContext
343
85%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.88
Team ratingContext
6.25
12.00
FoulsContext
11.00
15.50
Fouls sufferedContext
11.50
2.50
Yellow cardsContext
2.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.90
1.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.80
1.77
xGVia Att/Def
1.97
1.16
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.22
+0.03
Goals minus xGContext
-0.07
70%
Scored inContext
90%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
14.90
ShotsContext
19.20
5.30
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.50
36%
On target shareContext
34%
10.00
Shots in the boxContext
13.20
67%
Box shareContext
69%
12%
ConversionContext
10%
1.80
OffsidesContext
3.43
10.40
Shots allowedContext
11.50
3.78
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.78
2.44
BlocksContext
3.56
2.56
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.78
68%
Save rateContext
64%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
57%
406
PassesContext
460
346
Accurate passesContext
397
85%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.98
Team ratingContext
6.86
13.90
FoulsContext
11.60
14.00
Fouls sufferedContext
11.60
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
AEK Athens FC
WL
Rest14 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km2,976 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Form 52 · 3 pts vs 2.8 for an average club · +0.2 vs expected
Galatasaray
WLWLW
Rest4.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel560 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Form 59 · 9 pts vs 8.0 for an average club · -0.5 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| AEK Athens FC |
Galatasaray |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 14UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - League phase, 24 Nov | 4.1Süper Lig 2026-2027, 4 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 560 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 2,976 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 1 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 42 | 3.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
AEK Athens FC
Last XI · not confirmed
91A. Brignoli(G)
3S. Pilios
44Filipe Relvas
2H. Moukoudi
12L. Rota
11A. Koita
18R. Marin
27M. Vitális
14L. Majer
9L. Jović
90Zine
Galatasaray
Last XI · not confirmed
1U. Çakır(G)
17E. Elmalı
42A. Bardakcı
6D. Sánchez
7R. Sallai
8Gabriel Sara
99M. Lemina
53B. Yılmaz
83A. Batrakov
10L. Sané
45V. Osimhen
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences AEK Athens FC
Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Galatasaray
Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads
—
Home / Away this season
AEK Athens FC · Home
3.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
Galatasaray · Away
0.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 3.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| AEK Athens FC | Galatasaray | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 3.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 4.50 | |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 100% | |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 100% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 100% | |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
| AEK Athens FC | Galatasaray | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 1.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.75 | 1.80 | |
| Match goals | 2.25 | 3.70 | |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 80% | |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 80% | |
| Both teams scored | 25% | 60% | |
| Clean sheets | 75% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 25% | 10% | |
| Games | 4 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| AEK Athens FC | Galatasaray | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.50 | 2.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.00 | 3.50 | |
| Match total | 8.50 | 6.00 | 9.71 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 1/2 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 1/2 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/2 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.50 | 2.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 1.00 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 3.50 | 3.80 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 1/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 1/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| AEK Athens FC | Galatasaray | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.60 | 6.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 2.80 | 3.20 | |
| Match total | 8.40 | 9.60 | 9.71 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.60 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 3.60 | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
AEK Athens FC2 games · scored 2 · conceded 3
0-15
2
16-30
1
31-45
46-60
61-75
2
76-90
Galatasaray2 games · scored 2 · conceded 7
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
31-45
3
46-60
2
61-75
76-90
AEK Athens FC10 games · scored 18 · conceded 11
5
2
0-15
5
16-30
3
4
31-45
3
1
46-60
2
2
61-75
2
76-90
Galatasaray10 games · scored 19 · conceded 18
2
1
0-15
3
2
16-30
3
3
31-45
2
4
46-60
3
6
61-75
6
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Soon
Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.
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