UEFA Europa League Matchday 7 Thu, Jan 21 · 17:45 Yerevan Football Academy, Yerevan
Ararat-Armenia 34th · 0 pts · 2 played
VS— Compare
Celje 35th · 0 pts · 2 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel2,449 kmRest days42 · 41.9Matches / 14d0 · 0
Real contextStrength only
Ararat-Armenia—%
Draw—%
Celje—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Yerevan)

Forecast from 6 Jan

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Ararat-Armenia and Celje. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

Ararat-ArmeniaCelje
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
7 Current StrengthIn forecast 18
8 AttackIn forecast 17
8 DefenceIn forecast 19
— Form indexContext —
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Ararat-Armenia

Attack—
Defense risk—

Celje

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Ararat-ArmeniaCelje
1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.00
3.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.50
1.46 xGVia Att/Def 0.91
1.95 xG allowedVia Att/Def 2.00
-0.46 Goals minus xGContext -0.91
100% Scored inContext 0%
0% Clean sheetsContext 0%
14.00 ShotsContext 9.00
3.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 2.50
21% On target shareContext 28%
8.50 Shots in the boxContext 7.00
62% Box shareContext 78%
7% ConversionContext 0%
— OffsidesContext 1.50
18.50 Shots allowedContext 15.50
6.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 7.00
6.00 BlocksContext 2.50
2.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 5.00
39% Save rateContext 71%
50% PossessionIn forecast 53%
434 PassesContext 582
375 Accurate passesContext 514
86% Pass accuracyContext 88%
6.47 Team ratingContext 6.47
14.50 FoulsContext 9.50
19.50 Fouls sufferedContext 12.00
2.50 Yellow cardsContext 2.00
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 2 and 2 games
1.30 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.10
1.60 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.80
— xGVia Att/Def 0.82
— xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.94
— Goals minus xGContext +0.28
90% Scored inContext 70%
30% Clean sheetsContext 20%
11.33 ShotsContext 9.83
3.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.80
27% On target shareContext 32%
— Shots in the boxContext 6.17
— Box shareContext 61%
12% ConversionContext 7%
— OffsidesContext 2.80
17.67 Shots allowedContext 15.83
6.67 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.67
4.80 BlocksContext 4.00
— Goalkeeper savesContext 4.67
39% Save rateContext 70%
48% PossessionIn forecast 55%
— PassesContext 566
— Accurate passesContext 492
— Pass accuracyContext 87%
6.21 Team ratingContext 6.66
11.00 FoulsContext 12.86
16.60 Fouls sufferedContext 11.57
1.90 Yellow cardsContext 2.60
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Ararat-Armenia
Rest42 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 23 · 0 pts vs 3.4 for an average club · -1.4 vs expected
  • L15 OctA · Jagiellonia1–30.5 xPts
  • L16 SepH · Sparta Praha1–40.9 xPts
Celje
Rest41.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel2,449 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load20%Moderate
Form 28 · 0 pts vs 2.7 for an average club · -1.8 vs expected
  • L15 OctH · Omonia Nicosia0–31.4 xPts
  • L16 SepA · Bayer Leverkusen0–20.3 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Ararat-Armenia Celje
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Moderate · 20
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match42UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - League phase, 10 Dec41.9UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - League phase, 10 Dec
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km2,449 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways0 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days0 / 0 / 00 / 0 / 0
Next matchdays after this one7.17.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Ararat-Armenia Last XI · not confirmed
3-4-3 · vs Jagiellonia (A) 1–3, 15 Oct
98João Bravim(G)
5Luis Felipe 17M. Carlier 43Bruno Wilson
16E. Grigoryan 20A. Tera 8J. Balanta 2Hugo Oliveira
11Z. Banjaqui 91Sandro Lima 77A. Serobyan
Celje Last XI · not confirmed
4-4-2 · vs Omonia Nicosia (H) 0–3, 15 Oct
1Ž. Leban(G)
11M. Avdyli 6A. Tutyškinas 15Žan Žužek 44Ł. Bejger
14L. Tičić 19M. Zabukovnik 13P. Daniel 91Y. Dukuly
9B. Kramer 10S. Sešlar

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Ararat-Armenia Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Celje Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Ararat-Armenia · Home 0.00points per game · 1 home games
W-D-L
0-0-1
Scored
1.00
Conceded
4.00
Celje · Away 0.00points per game · 1 away games
W-D-L
0-0-1
Scored
0.00
Conceded
2.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings

1 Ararat-Armenia wins0 draws1 Celje wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.50 Over 2.550% Both scored50% Clean sheets0% · 50%
  • 11 Aug 2026Celje2–0Ararat-Armenia
  • 4 Aug 2026Ararat-Armenia2–1Celje

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

Ararat-ArmeniaCeljeForecast
Scored per game 1.000.00
Conceded per game 3.502.50
Match goals 4.502.50
Over 1.5 100%100%
Over 2.5 100%50%
Over 3.5 100%0%
Both teams scored 100%0%
Clean sheets 0%0%
Failed to score 0%100%
Games22
Ararat-ArmeniaCeljeForecast
Scored per game 1.301.13
Conceded per game 1.601.75
Match goals 2.902.88
Over 1.5 90%100%
Over 2.5 50%50%
Over 3.5 30%13%
Both teams scored 60%63%
Clean sheets 30%13%
Failed to score 10%25%
Games108

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

Ararat-ArmeniaCeljeLeague
Corners
Corners won2.502.50
Corners conceded7.506.00
Match total10.008.509.76
Over 8.550% 1/250% 1/2
Over 9.550% 1/20% 0/2
Over 10.550% 1/20% 0/2
Cards
Cards2.502.00
Opponent cards1.501.00
Match total4.003.003.76
Over 3.550% 1/250% 1/2
Over 4.550% 1/250% 1/2
Ararat-ArmeniaCeljeLeague
Corners
Corners won3.835.00
Corners conceded7.337.33
Match total11.1612.339.76
Over 8.567% 4/683% 5/6
Over 9.567% 4/667% 4/6
Over 10.550% 3/667% 4/6
Cards
Cards1.902.70
Opponent cards2.901.50
Match total4.804.203.76
Over 3.570% 7/1060% 6/10
Over 4.550% 5/1040% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Ararat-Armenia2 games · scored 2 · conceded 7
1 1 0-15
2 16-30
1 31-45
1 2 46-60
1 61-75
76-90
Celje2 games · scored 0 · conceded 5
1 0-15
1 16-30
31-45
1 46-60
1 61-75
1 76-90
Ararat-Armenia10 games · scored 13 · conceded 16
1 3 0-15
1 4 16-30
1 3 31-45
3 2 46-60
4 1 61-75
3 3 76-90
Celje9 games · scored 10 · conceded 17
1 4 0-15
1 2 16-30
4 3 31-45
1 3 46-60
1 2 61-75
2 3 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

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