Celta Vigo
Attack+12%
Defense risk−7%
Our take
Celta Vigo are slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Levante. Celta Vigo have 2.9 days of rest, Levante 8.2 and have to travel 765 km.
Away travel765 kmRest days2.9 · 8.2Matches / 14d2 · 2
Celta Vigo42%
Draw27%
Levante31%
Celta Vigo47%
Draw26%
Levante27%
Celta Vigo42%
Draw27%
Levante31%
Celta Vigo34%
Draw27%
Levante38%
Celta Vigo42%
Draw26%
Levante32%
Over 2.5 49%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 1–1
EloLambda forecast, updated 17 hours ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Vigo)
Forecast from 24 Oct
Referee—Not appointed yet
Key insights
Automatic descriptive highlights for Celta Vigo and Levante. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.
Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.
xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.
Headlines
-
Trend
Levante
63%
Both teams scored
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored -
Insight
Celta Vigo
3
Clean sheets
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet -
Trend
Levante
1.5
Goals scored per match
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
-
Insight
Levante
−0.36
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.43xG against1.79
-
Insight
Celta Vigo
1.0
Goals conceded per match
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
Attack
Defence
-
Insight
Celta Vigo
3
Clean sheets
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet -
Insight
Celta Vigo
1.0
Goals conceded per match
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Alert
Levante
2.0
Goals conceded per match
Last 8 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Insight
Levante
−0.36
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.43xG against1.79
Streaks
Not enough recorded data for this category yet.
Team strength
Celta VigoLevante
54
L90 StrengthIn forecast
48
54
Current StrengthIn forecast
48
36
AttackIn forecast
55
61
DefenceIn forecast
41
47
Form indexContext
29
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisLevante
Attack+4%
Defense risk−18%
Both teams face a more favorable matchup than their league-average baseline.
Playing style
Celta VigoLevante
1.11
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
0.78
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.00
0.92
xGVia Att/Def
1.35
1.18
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.01
+0.19
Goals minus xGContext
+0.15
56%
Scored inContext
63%
44%
Clean sheetsContext
25%
9.44
ShotsContext
11.88
3.63
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.86
34%
On target shareContext
36%
4.67
Shots in the boxContext
7.71
47%
Box shareContext
58%
12%
ConversionContext
13%
3.00
OffsidesContext
2.25
13.33
Shots allowedContext
15.25
4.33
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.63
3.44
BlocksContext
3.38
3.44
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.50
80%
Save rateContext
62%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
506
PassesContext
381
438
Accurate passesContext
309
87%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.87
Team ratingContext
6.75
12.22
FoulsContext
9.88
14.44
Fouls sufferedContext
12.75
1.67
Yellow cardsContext
1.25
0.11
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.80
0.99
xGVia Att/Def
1.43
1.16
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.79
+0.11
Goals minus xGContext
+0.07
60%
Scored inContext
70%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
10.40
ShotsContext
12.20
3.67
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.89
32%
On target shareContext
36%
5.50
Shots in the boxContext
8.22
50%
Box shareContext
62%
11%
ConversionContext
12%
3.00
OffsidesContext
1.83
14.50
Shots allowedContext
14.90
4.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.60
3.80
BlocksContext
3.56
3.70
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.70
77%
Save rateContext
66%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
42%
497
PassesContext
359
431
Accurate passesContext
291
87%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.82
Team ratingContext
6.80
11.90
FoulsContext
9.60
13.60
Fouls sufferedContext
12.70
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.40
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Celta Vigo
LWDLW
Rest2.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km930 km in 14d
Schedule load8%Low
Form 47 · 7 pts vs 7.3 for an average club · +0.3 vs expected
Levante
DLLDD
Rest8.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel765 km894 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Form 29 · 3 pts vs 5.6 for an average club · -2.6 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Celta Vigo |
Levante |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 8 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 2.9UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - League phase, 5 Nov | 8.2La Liga 2026-2027, 31 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 765 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 930 km | 894 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 6 | 0 / 2 / 5 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 13.9 | 13.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Celta Vigo
Last XI · not confirmed
13I. Radu(G)
21S. Cáceres
18Yoel Lago
20Javi Rodríguez
23Hugo Álvarez
6I. Moriba
30H. Burcio
5Sergio Carreira
19W. Swedberg
9Ferran Jutglà
24C. Driouech
Levante
Last XI · not confirmed
13M. Ryan(G)
23Manu Sánchez
3Ifeanyi Ndukwe
4Adrián de la Fuente
29Nacho Pérez
6Reque
20Oriol Rey
18E. Bardeli
24T. Fernandez
9Iván Romero
7Roger Brugué
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Celta Vigo
No reported absences
Levante
No reported absences
Total impact vs full squads
- Celta Vigo+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Levante+0.0 pp
From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.
Home / Away this season
Celta Vigo · Home
1.40points per game · 5 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-2
- Scored
- 1.80
- Conceded
- 1.20
Levante · Away
0.60points per game · 5 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-3-2
- Scored
- 0.40
- Conceded
- 1.40
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 2 this season
| Opponent | Celta Vigo | Levante |
|---|---|---|
| Malaga | D 1–1 H | D 0–0 A |
| Osasuna | L 1–2 H | D 0–0 A |
| Points | 1 of 6 · 0.50 per game | 2 of 6 · 1.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
3 Celta Vigo wins2 draws1 Levante wins
Goals per game1.67 – 1.00
Over 2.533%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets33% · 0%
- 12 May 2026Celta Vigo2–3Levante
- 2 Nov 2025Levante1–2Celta Vigo
- 21 Feb 2022Celta Vigo1–1Levante
- 21 Sep 2021Levante0–2Celta Vigo
- 30 Apr 2021Celta Vigo2–0Levante
- 26 Oct 2020Levante1–1Celta Vigo
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Celta Vigo | Levante | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.11 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.78 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 1.89 | 3.50 | 2.65 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 75% | |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 63% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 11% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 44% | 63% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 44% | 25% | |
| Failed to score | 44% | 38% | |
| Games | 9 | 8 |
| Celta Vigo | Levante | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.10 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.80 | |
| Match goals | 2.10 | 3.30 | 2.65 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 60% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Celta Vigo | Levante | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.13 | 3.86 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.75 | 5.71 | |
| Match total | 7.88 | 9.57 | 9.91 |
| Over 8.5 | 25% 2/8 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 25% 2/8 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 2/8 | 29% 2/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.78 | 1.25 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.11 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 3.89 | 3.75 | 4.73 |
| Over 3.5 | 44% 4/9 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Over 4.5 | 44% 4/9 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Celta Vigo | Levante | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.67 | 4.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.22 | 5.56 | |
| Match total | 8.89 | 9.89 | 9.91 |
| Over 8.5 | 33% 3/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 3/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.60 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 3.50 | 3.70 | 4.73 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Celta Vigo9 games · scored 10 · conceded 7
1
0-15
3
16-30
3
31-45
2
1
46-60
2
1
61-75
2
2
76-90
Levante8 games · scored 12 · conceded 16
3
0-15
1
1
16-30
2
4
31-45
2
3
46-60
1
1
61-75
6
4
76-90
Celta Vigo10 games · scored 11 · conceded 10
1
0-15
1
3
16-30
3
31-45
2
2
46-60
2
1
61-75
2
4
76-90
Levante10 games · scored 15 · conceded 18
4
0-15
1
1
16-30
4
4
31-45
2
3
46-60
1
2
61-75
7
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
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