Espanyol
Attack+8%
Defense risk−13%
Espanyol
15th · 8 pts · 9 played
WLLDL
VS—
Compare
Deportivo La Coruna
9th · 11 pts · 9 played
DLDLD
Our take
Espanyol are slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Deportivo La Coruna. Espanyol have 7.8 days of rest, Deportivo La Coruna 4.8 and have to travel 889 km.
Away travel889 kmRest days7.8 · 4.8Matches / 14d1 · 2
Espanyol41%
Draw28%
Deportivo La Coruna32%
Espanyol43%
Draw27%
Deportivo La Coruna30%
Espanyol41%
Draw28%
Deportivo La Coruna32%
Espanyol34%
Draw28%
Deportivo La Coruna39%
Espanyol42%
Draw26%
Deportivo La Coruna32%
Over 2.5 48%
Both score 53%
Likeliest score 1–1
EloLambda forecast, updated 2 days ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Cornella de Llobregat)
Forecast from 23 Oct
Referee—Not appointed yet
Key insights
Automatic descriptive highlights for Espanyol and Deportivo La Coruna. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.
Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.
xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.
Headlines
Attack
Defence
Not enough recorded data for this category yet.
Streaks
Not enough recorded data for this category yet.
Team strength
EspanyolDeportivo La Coruna
44
L90 StrengthIn forecast
45
44
Current StrengthIn forecast
45
36
AttackIn forecast
40
51
DefenceIn forecast
57
31
Form indexContext
21
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisDeportivo La Coruna
Attack+10%
Defense risk−18%
Both teams face a more favorable matchup than their league-average baseline.
Playing style
EspanyolDeportivo La Coruna
1.22
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.44
1.33
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.33
1.14
xGVia Att/Def
1.08
1.28
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.15
+0.08
Goals minus xGContext
+0.36
89%
Scored inContext
89%
22%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
12.67
ShotsContext
11.67
3.67
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.33
29%
On target shareContext
37%
7.33
Shots in the boxContext
7.89
57%
Box shareContext
64%
10%
ConversionContext
12%
3.50
OffsidesContext
1.71
13.11
Shots allowedContext
12.56
5.75
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.33
3.00
BlocksContext
3.11
4.71
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
75%
Save rateContext
69%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
376
PassesContext
444
305
Accurate passesContext
376
81%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.78
Team ratingContext
6.79
16.00
FoulsContext
13.00
10.44
Fouls sufferedContext
11.89
3.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.78
0.11
Red cardsContext
0.22
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.26
xGVia Att/Def
1.08
1.30
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.15
-0.06
Goals minus xGContext
+0.32
90%
Scored inContext
90%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
13.10
ShotsContext
11.10
4.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.20
31%
On target shareContext
38%
7.50
Shots in the boxContext
7.60
57%
Box shareContext
66%
9%
ConversionContext
13%
3.14
OffsidesContext
1.63
12.70
Shots allowedContext
11.80
5.56
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.10
2.78
BlocksContext
3.00
4.38
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
73%
Save rateContext
69%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
379
PassesContext
455
308
Accurate passesContext
389
81%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.80
Team ratingContext
6.77
15.50
FoulsContext
12.80
11.10
Fouls sufferedContext
11.50
2.80
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Espanyol
WLLDL
Rest7.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km484 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 31 · 4 pts vs 6.2 for an average club · -1.7 vs expected
Deportivo La Coruna
DLDLD
Rest4.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel889 km1,017 km in 14d
Schedule load12%Low
Form 21 · 3 pts vs 6.7 for an average club · -3.7 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Espanyol |
Deportivo La Coruna |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 12 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.8La Liga 2026-2027, 30 Oct | 4.8La Liga 2026-2027, 2 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 889 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 484 km | 1,017 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 15 | 15 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Espanyol
Last XI · not confirmed
1Ángel Fortuño(G)
21Roger Hinojo
6L. Cabrera
5C. Riedel
16V. Drkušić
23O. El Hilali
15Bryan Zaragoza
10Pol Lozano
8Edu Expósito
28Javi Hernández
9R. Fernández Jaén
Deportivo La Coruna
Last XI · not confirmed
13Leo Román(G)
12G. Quagliata
22B. Ede
20J. Giménez
23Ximo Navarro
14Riki Rodríguez
8Diego Villares
21Mario Soriano
19Luismi Cruz
32B. Nsongo
10Peke
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Espanyol
No reported absences
Deportivo La Coruna
No reported absences
Total impact vs full squads
- Espanyol+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Deportivo La Coruna+0.0 pp
From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.
Home / Away this season
Espanyol · Home
0.80points per game · 5 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-3
- Scored
- 1.20
- Conceded
- 1.40
Deportivo La Coruna · Away
1.25points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-1
- Scored
- 1.75
- Conceded
- 1.75
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 5 this season
| Opponent | Espanyol | Deportivo La Coruna |
|---|---|---|
| Malaga | D 1–1 A | D 1–1 A |
| Elche | L 1–3 H | D 1–1 H |
| Sevilla | D 1–1 H | L 0–1 H |
| Real Sociedad | L 1–2 A | L 2–3 A |
| Levante | W 3–0 H | D 1–1 H |
| Points | 5 of 15 · 1.00 per game | 3 of 15 · 0.60 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Espanyol | Deportivo La Coruna | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.22 | 1.44 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.33 | 1.33 | |
| Match goals | 2.56 | 2.78 | 2.60 |
| Over 1.5 | 89% | 89% | |
| Over 2.5 | 56% | 33% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 11% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 89% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 22% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 11% | 11% | |
| Games | 9 | 9 |
| Espanyol | Deportivo La Coruna | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.20 | 1.44 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 1.33 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 2.78 | 2.60 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 89% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 33% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 89% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 11% | |
| Games | 10 | 9 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Espanyol | Deportivo La Coruna | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.14 | 5.22 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.71 | 5.44 | |
| Match total | 8.85 | 10.66 | 9.91 |
| Over 8.5 | 43% 3/7 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 43% 3/7 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 14% 1/7 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.11 | 2.11 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.89 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 6.00 | 4.11 | 4.73 |
| Over 3.5 | 89% 8/9 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 4.5 | 89% 8/9 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Espanyol | Deportivo La Coruna | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.13 | 4.80 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.63 | 5.40 | |
| Match total | 8.76 | 10.20 | 9.91 |
| Over 8.5 | 38% 3/8 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 38% 3/8 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 13% 1/8 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.90 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.90 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 5.80 | 3.80 | 4.73 |
| Over 3.5 | 90% 9/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 80% 8/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Espanyol9 games · scored 11 · conceded 12
3
3
0-15
2
3
16-30
2
31-45
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
2
5
76-90
Deportivo La Coruna9 games · scored 13 · conceded 12
1
0-15
3
3
16-30
1
3
31-45
1
2
46-60
3
1
61-75
4
3
76-90
Espanyol10 games · scored 12 · conceded 13
3
3
0-15
2
4
16-30
2
31-45
1
46-60
2
1
61-75
2
5
76-90
Deportivo La Coruna10 games · scored 14 · conceded 14
1
1
0-15
4
4
16-30
1
3
31-45
1
2
46-60
3
1
61-75
4
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
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