Villarreal vs Getafe

La Liga Gameweek 12 Sun, Nov 8 · 17:30 Estadio de la Cerámica, Villarreal

Villarreal 12th · 9 pts · 9 played LWWLD

VS— Compare

Getafe 14th · 9 pts · 9 played DLWLD

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Villarreal are slight favourites.

Villarreal are the stronger side on L90 Strength (67 vs 49). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Villarreal. Villarreal have 4.9 days of rest, Getafe 7.2 and have to travel 311 km.

Away travel311 kmRest days4.9 · 7.2Matches / 14d2 · 1

Villarreal59%

Draw24%

Getafe17%

Expected goals 1.79 – 0.85

Villarreal55%

Draw24%

Getafe21%

Expected goals 1.78 – 1.01

Villarreal59%

Draw24%

Getafe17%

Expected goals 1.79 – 0.85

Villarreal52%

Draw26%

Getafe22%

Expected goals 1.60 – 0.95

Villarreal60%

Draw23%

Getafe17%

Expected goals 1.92 – 0.94

Over 2.5 49% Both score 48% Likeliest score 1–0

EloLambda forecast, updated 17 hours ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Villarreal)

Forecast from 24 Oct

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Defence

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Team strength

Villarreal

Getafe

67 L90 StrengthIn forecast 49

65 Current StrengthIn forecast 48

76 AttackIn forecast 27

73 DefenceIn forecast 59

79 Form indexContext 42

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Villarreal

Attack+1%

Defense risk−23%

Getafe

Attack−12%

Defense risk+14%

Changes versus each team's league-average baseline. Higher attack and lower defense risk are favorable.

Playing style

Villarreal

Getafe

1.44 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.50

1.44 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.25

2.13 xGVia Att/Def 0.62

1.13 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.40

-0.69 Goals minus xGContext -0.12

67% Scored inContext 50%

11% Clean sheetsContext 25%

16.33 ShotsContext 10.75

6.33 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 2.50

39% On target shareContext 23%

11.11 Shots in the boxContext 5.63

68% Box shareContext 49%

9% ConversionContext 5%

2.89 OffsidesContext 2.60

12.00 Shots allowedContext 14.50

3.44 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.88

5.14 BlocksContext 4.38

3.33 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.50

77% Save rateContext 72%

60% PossessionIn forecast 37%

573 PassesContext 297

510 Accurate passesContext 221

89% Pass accuracyContext 75%

6.87 Team ratingContext 6.68

11.11 FoulsContext 14.25

11.67 Fouls sufferedContext 13.25

1.78 Yellow cardsContext 3.25

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.13

This league season, per match · 9 and 8 games

1.60 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.50

1.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.10

2.12 xGVia Att/Def 0.53

1.30 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.21

-0.52 Goals minus xGContext -0.03

70% Scored inContext 50%

10% Clean sheetsContext 30%

16.50 ShotsContext 9.50

6.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 2.56

36% On target shareContext 24%

11.00 Shots in the boxContext 4.90

67% Box shareContext 47%

10% ConversionContext 5%

2.90 OffsidesContext 2.14

12.00 Shots allowedContext 13.70

3.70 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.70

4.63 BlocksContext 4.00

3.29 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.50

72% Save rateContext 75%

59% PossessionIn forecast 39%

560 PassesContext 291

493 Accurate passesContext 214

88% Pass accuracyContext 74%

6.86 Team ratingContext 6.72

10.40 FoulsContext 14.30

12.10 Fouls sufferedContext 14.20

1.70 Yellow cardsContext 2.70

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.20

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Villarreal WWLWD

Rest4.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 79 · 10 pts vs 6.2 for an average club · +2.2 vs expected

D17 OctH · Elche0–02.1 xPts
W13 OctH · Napoli3–11.7 xPts
L10 OctA · Real Madrid0–10.7 xPts
W20 SepH · Levante3–11.9 xPts
W17 SepA · Malaga3–11.5 xPts

Getafe DLWLD

Rest7.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel311 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

Form 42 · 5 pts vs 5.9 for an average club · -0.3 vs expected

D19 OctH · Rayo Vallecano1–11.3 xPts
L10 OctA · Barcelona0–30.2 xPts
W20 SepH · Malaga1–01.5 xPts
L17 SepA · Real Betis0–10.8 xPts
D13 SepH · Deportivo La Coruna1–11.4 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Villarreal	Getafe
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	4.9UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - League phase, 3 Nov	7.2La Liga 2026-2027, 1 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	311 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 6	0 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	13.9	13.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Villarreal Last XI · not confirmed

4-4-2 · vs Elche (H) 0–0, 17 Oct

25P. Gulácsi(G)

23Sergi Cardona 2Logan Costa 8J. Foyth 3A. Freeman

10Alberto Moleiro 16Carlos Macia 14Santi Comesaña 11I. Akhomach

21T. Oluwaseyi 22Ayoze Pérez

Getafe Last XI · not confirmed

5-4-1 · vs Barcelona (A) 0–3, 10 Oct

13David Soria(G)

22J. Mojica 24Z. Romero 8N. Gudelj 2D. Dakonam 17Kiko Femenía

11Ramon Terrats 6Mario Martín 16Francho Serrano 21Andrés García

20Ivan Azón Monzón

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Villarreal No reported absences

Getafe No reported absences

Total impact vs full squads

Villarreal+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Getafe+0.0 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Villarreal · Home 1.00points per game · 4 home games

W-D-L: 1-1-2
Scored: 1.50
Conceded: 1.50

Getafe · Away 0.00points per game · 4 away games

W-D-L: 0-0-4
Scored: 0.00
Conceded: 2.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 5 this season

Opponent	Villarreal	Getafe
Malaga	W 3–1 A	W 1–0 H
Real Betis	L 1–2 H	L 0–1 A
Deportivo La Coruna	L 2–3 H	D 1–1 H
Alaves	L 0–1 A	L 0–3 A
Racing Santander	D 2–2 A	W 1–0 H
Points	4 of 15 · 0.80 per game	7 of 15 · 1.40 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 12 meetings

5 Villarreal wins4 draws1 Getafe wins

Goals per game1.20 – 0.70 Over 2.540% Both scored60% Clean sheets40% · 20%

14 Feb 2026Getafe2–1Villarreal
6 Dec 2025Villarreal2–0Getafe
30 Mar 2025Getafe1–2Villarreal
20 Oct 2024Villarreal1–1Getafe
16 Feb 2024Villarreal1–1Getafe
30 Sep 2023Getafe0–0Villarreal

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Villarreal	Getafe	Forecast
Scored per game	1.44	0.56
Conceded per game	1.44	1.22
Match goals	2.89	1.78	2.64
Over 1.5	67%	56%
Over 2.5	67%	22%	49%
Over 3.5	56%	0%
Both teams scored	67%	33%	48%
Clean sheets	11%	22%
Failed to score	33%	44%
Games	9	9

	Villarreal	Getafe	Forecast
Scored per game	1.60	0.60
Conceded per game	1.50	1.10
Match goals	3.10	1.70	2.64
Over 1.5	70%	50%
Over 2.5	70%	20%	49%
Over 3.5	60%	0%
Both teams scored	70%	30%	48%
Clean sheets	10%	30%
Failed to score	30%	40%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Villarreal	Getafe	League
Corners
Corners won	7.11	3.88
Corners conceded	4.44	5.75
Match total	11.55	9.63	9.84
Over 8.5	67% 6/9	50% 4/8
Over 9.5	67% 6/9	50% 4/8
Over 10.5	67% 6/9	38% 3/8
Cards
Cards	1.78	3.63
Opponent cards	3.00	2.50
Match total	4.78	6.13	4.68
Over 3.5	78% 7/9	100% 8/8
Over 4.5	56% 5/9	75% 6/8

	Villarreal	Getafe	League
Corners
Corners won	6.50	3.67
Corners conceded	4.70	5.56
Match total	11.20	9.23	9.84
Over 8.5	60% 6/10	44% 4/9
Over 9.5	60% 6/10	44% 4/9
Over 10.5	60% 6/10	33% 3/9
Cards
Cards	1.70	3.10
Opponent cards	2.90	2.50
Match total	4.60	5.60	4.68
Over 3.5	80% 8/10	90% 9/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	60% 6/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.