La Liga Gameweek 12 Sat, Nov 7 · 17:30 Estadio El Sadar, Iruñea
Osasuna 10th · 11 pts · 9 played
VS— Compare
Athletic Club 11th · 9 pts · 7 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

It looks too close to call.

Athletic Club are the stronger side on L90 Strength (55 vs 44). Osasuna have 4.9 days of rest, Athletic Club 5.9 and have to travel 115 km.

Away travel115 kmRest days4.9 · 5.9Matches / 14d2 · 2
Osasuna37%
Draw26%
Athletic Club36%
Expected goals 1.43 – 1.40
Osasuna38%
Draw27%
Athletic Club35%
Expected goals 1.36 – 1.31
Osasuna37%
Draw26%
Athletic Club36%
Expected goals 1.43 – 1.40
Osasuna30%
Draw26%
Athletic Club44%
Expected goals 1.28 – 1.57
Osasuna38%
Draw25%
Athletic Club37%
Expected goals 1.55 – 1.51
Over 2.5 54% Both score 58% Likeliest score 1–1
EloLambda forecast, updated 2 days ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Iruñea)

Forecast from 23 Oct

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Osasuna and Athletic Club. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

OsasunaAthletic Club
44 L90 StrengthIn forecast 55
46 Current StrengthIn forecast 53
50 AttackIn forecast 51
50 DefenceIn forecast 64
31 Form indexContext 70
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Osasuna

Attack+1%
Defense risk−2%

Athletic Club

Attack+15%
Defense risk−10%

Both teams face a more favorable matchup than their league-average baseline.

Playing style

OsasunaAthletic Club
1.11 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00
2.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.86
1.52 xGVia Att/Def 1.48
1.43 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.27
-0.41 Goals minus xGContext -0.48
67% Scored inContext 57%
33% Clean sheetsContext 57%
10.78 ShotsContext 14.71
4.33 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.00
40% On target shareContext 29%
7.63 Shots in the boxContext 9.14
64% Box shareContext 65%
10% ConversionContext 7%
2.63 OffsidesContext 3.33
13.22 Shots allowedContext 10.43
3.89 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.17
3.89 BlocksContext 1.80
2.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.00
51% Save rateContext 83%
46% PossessionIn forecast 54%
390 PassesContext 494
316 Accurate passesContext 420
81% Pass accuracyContext 85%
6.54 Team ratingContext 6.88
14.67 FoulsContext 11.43
12.33 Fouls sufferedContext 11.71
2.67 Yellow cardsContext 2.14
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.14
This league season, per match · 9 and 7 games
1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00
1.90 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.30
1.42 xGVia Att/Def 1.43
1.31 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.17
-0.42 Goals minus xGContext -0.43
60% Scored inContext 60%
30% Clean sheetsContext 40%
10.80 ShotsContext 14.60
4.40 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.89
41% On target shareContext 30%
7.56 Shots in the boxContext 9.80
64% Box shareContext 69%
9% ConversionContext 7%
2.44 OffsidesContext 2.50
12.50 Shots allowedContext 10.10
3.80 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.44
3.70 BlocksContext 1.71
2.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.50
53% Save rateContext 72%
46% PossessionIn forecast 50%
373 PassesContext 448
298 Accurate passesContext 372
80% Pass accuracyContext 83%
6.54 Team ratingContext 6.77
15.20 FoulsContext 12.70
12.80 Fouls sufferedContext 10.60
2.60 Yellow cardsContext 1.70
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Osasuna
Rest4.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km2,518 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Form 31 · 4 pts vs 6.3 for an average club · -2.6 vs expected
  • W18 OctH · Racing Santander2–01.7 xPts
  • L11 OctA · Real Betis2–50.8 xPts
  • D19 SepH · Rayo Vallecano1–11.5 xPts
  • L16 SepA · Atletico Madrid0–40.9 xPts
  • L12 SepH · Espanyol0–21.8 xPts
Athletic Club
Rest5.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel115 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 70 · 9 pts vs 6.6 for an average club · +1.6 vs expected
  • D17 OctA · Valencia0–01.4 xPts
  • D19 SepH · Alaves0–01.6 xPts
  • D12 SepH · Elche1–12.0 xPts
  • W5 SepH · Atletico Madrid3–01.3 xPts
  • W30 AugA · Celta Vigo2–01.1 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Osasuna Athletic Club
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 5Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match4.9La Liga 2026-2027, 2 Nov5.9La Liga 2026-2027, 1 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km115 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways2,518 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 2 / 41 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one14.914.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Osasuna Last XI · not confirmed
4-3-3 · vs Racing Santander (H) 2–0, 18 Oct
13Aitor Fernández(G)
23Abel Bretones 22F. Boyomo 24Catena 19V. Rosier
16Moi Gómez 8Iker Muñoz 7Moncayola
21J. Dubasin 17A. Budimir 14Rubén García
Athletic Club Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Valencia (A) 0–0, 17 Oct
1Unai Simón(G)
31J. Louis-Jean 14A. Laporte 4Aitor Paredes 15Hugo Rincón
16Ruíz de Galarreta 24Beñat Gerenabarrena
23Robert Navarro 28Peio Canales 7Álex Berenguer
9I. Williams

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Osasuna No reported absences
Athletic Club No reported absences
Total impact vs full squads
  • Osasuna+0.0 pp
  • Draw+0.0 pp
  • Athletic Club+0.0 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Osasuna · Home 1.60points per game · 5 home games
W-D-L
2-2-1
Scored
0.80
Conceded
0.60
Athletic Club · Away 1.33points per game · 3 away games
W-D-L
1-1-1
Scored
0.67
Conceded
0.67

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 3 this season

OpponentOsasunaAthletic Club
Atletico Madrid L 0–4 A W 3–0 H
Alaves L 2–5 A D 0–0 H
Celta Vigo W 2–1 A W 2–0 A
Points3 of 9 · 1.00 per game7 of 9 · 2.33 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 12 meetings

1 Osasuna wins4 draws5 Athletic Club wins
Goals per game0.70 – 1.30 Over 2.530% Both scored40% Clean sheets30% · 50%
  • 21 Apr 2026Athletic Club1–0Osasuna
  • 3 Jan 2026Osasuna1–1Athletic Club
  • 30 Mar 2025Athletic Club0–0Osasuna
  • 21 Dec 2024Osasuna1–2Athletic Club
  • 11 May 2024Athletic Club2–2Osasuna
  • 19 Aug 2023Osasuna0–2Athletic Club

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

OsasunaAthletic ClubForecast
Scored per game 1.111.00
Conceded per game 2.000.86
Match goals 3.111.86 2.84
Over 1.5 78%71%
Over 2.5 44%29% 54%
Over 3.5 33%14%
Both teams scored 44%29% 58%
Clean sheets 33%57%
Failed to score 33%43%
Games97
OsasunaAthletic ClubForecast
Scored per game 1.001.00
Conceded per game 1.901.30
Match goals 2.902.30 2.84
Over 1.5 70%80%
Over 2.5 40%30% 54%
Over 3.5 30%20%
Both teams scored 40%40% 58%
Clean sheets 30%40%
Failed to score 40%40%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

OsasunaAthletic ClubLeague
Corners
Corners won4.006.14
Corners conceded4.504.43
Match total8.5010.579.91
Over 8.538% 3/857% 4/7
Over 9.538% 3/857% 4/7
Over 10.538% 3/857% 4/7
Cards
Cards2.672.29
Opponent cards2.001.86
Match total4.674.154.73
Over 3.556% 5/943% 3/7
Over 4.556% 5/943% 3/7
OsasunaAthletic ClubLeague
Corners
Corners won4.005.89
Corners conceded4.224.56
Match total8.2210.459.91
Over 8.533% 3/956% 5/9
Over 9.533% 3/956% 5/9
Over 10.533% 3/956% 5/9
Cards
Cards2.601.80
Opponent cards1.901.70
Match total4.503.504.73
Over 3.550% 5/1040% 4/10
Over 4.550% 5/1030% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Osasuna9 games · scored 10 · conceded 18
1 3 0-15
1 3 16-30
1 2 31-45
4 4 46-60
2 3 61-75
1 3 76-90
Athletic Club7 games · scored 7 · conceded 6
1 0-15
2 16-30
1 31-45
2 3 46-60
1 61-75
2 1 76-90
Osasuna10 games · scored 10 · conceded 19
1 3 0-15
1 3 16-30
1 2 31-45
4 5 46-60
2 3 61-75
1 3 76-90
Athletic Club10 games · scored 10 · conceded 13
3 0-15
2 16-30
1 2 31-45
3 4 46-60
1 1 61-75
3 3 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Beta

Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.

Next fixtures La Liga

View all fixtures →
Sevilla Alaves Nov 620:00 Malaga Racing Santander Nov 713:00 Espanyol Deportivo La Coruna Nov 715:15 Osasuna Athletic Club Nov 717:30 Valencia Real Madrid Nov 720:00 Elche Real Betis Nov 813:00 Real Sociedad Rayo Vallecano Nov 815:15 Villarreal Getafe Nov 817:30 Celta Vigo Levante Nov 817:30 Atletico Madrid Barcelona Nov 820:00