Celta Vigo vs Union St. Gilloise

UEFA Europa League Matchday 4 Thu, Nov 5 · 20:00 Abanca-Balaídos, Vigo

Celta Vigo 28th · 0 pts · 2 played LL

VS— Compare

Union St. Gilloise 12th · 4 pts · 2 played WD

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Union St. Gilloise are slight favourites.

Union St. Gilloise are the stronger side on L90 Strength (70 vs 54). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Union St. Gilloise. Celta Vigo have 5.2 days of rest, Union St. Gilloise 5 and have to travel 1,381 km.

Away travel1,381 kmRest days5.2 · 5Matches / 14d2 · 2

Celta Vigo32%

Draw27%

Union St. Gilloise41%

Expected goals 1.26 – 1.47

Celta Vigo34%

Draw27%

Union St. Gilloise39%

Expected goals 1.28 – 1.40

Celta Vigo32%

Draw27%

Union St. Gilloise41%

Expected goals 1.26 – 1.47

Celta Vigo25%

Draw26%

Union St. Gilloise49%

Expected goals 1.13 – 1.65

Celta Vigo32%

Draw27%

Union St. Gilloise41%

Expected goals 1.24 – 1.44

Over 2.5 51% Both score 56% Likeliest score 1–1

EloLambda forecast, updated 3 hours ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Vigo)

Forecast from 21 Oct

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Defence

Streaks

Team strength

Celta Vigo

Union St. Gilloise

54 L90 StrengthIn forecast 70

54 Current StrengthIn forecast 70

36 AttackIn forecast 62

61 DefenceIn forecast 74

47 Form indexContext 73

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Celta Vigo

Attack−14%

Defense risk+6%

Union St. Gilloise

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Celta Vigo

Union St. Gilloise

0.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.00

1.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.50

1.11 xGVia Att/Def —

0.79 xG allowedVia Att/Def —

-0.61 Goals minus xGContext —

50% Scored inContext 100%

0% Clean sheetsContext 50%

13.00 ShotsContext 19.00

3.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 9.00

27% On target shareContext 47%

8.00 Shots in the boxContext 12.00

62% Box shareContext 63%

4% ConversionContext 11%

— OffsidesContext —

16.50 Shots allowedContext 9.50

5.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.00

4.50 BlocksContext 2.50

4.00 Goalkeeper savesContext —

73% Save rateContext 80%

50% PossessionIn forecast 48%

516 PassesContext 475

460 Accurate passesContext 394

89% Pass accuracyContext 83%

6.65 Team ratingContext 7.08

13.00 FoulsContext 13.00

11.50 Fouls sufferedContext 13.00

1.50 Yellow cardsContext 1.50

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 2 and 2 games

1.10 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.30

1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.70

0.99 xGVia Att/Def 1.40

1.16 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.96

+0.11 Goals minus xGContext +0.90

60% Scored inContext 90%

30% Clean sheetsContext 60%

10.40 ShotsContext 17.30

3.67 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 7.00

32% On target shareContext 41%

5.50 Shots in the boxContext 13.20

50% Box shareContext 75%

11% ConversionContext 13%

3.00 OffsidesContext 2.78

14.50 Shots allowedContext 11.90

4.80 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.40

3.80 BlocksContext 3.90

3.70 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.00

77% Save rateContext 75%

49% PossessionIn forecast 51%

497 PassesContext 461

431 Accurate passesContext 379

87% Pass accuracyContext 82%

6.82 Team ratingContext 7.12

11.90 FoulsContext 11.90

13.60 Fouls sufferedContext 11.90

1.50 Yellow cardsContext 1.80

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Celta Vigo LWDLW

Rest5.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km930 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 47 · 7 pts vs 7.3 for an average club · +0.3 vs expected

W18 OctH · Alaves2–11.5 xPts
L15 OctH · Juventus1–21.2 xPts
D11 OctA · Elche0–01.2 xPts
W19 SepH · Racing Santander5–01.5 xPts
L16 SepA · Omonia Nicosia0–11.4 xPts

Union St. Gilloise WWWDD

Rest5 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel1,381 km81 km in 14d

Schedule load12%Low

Form 73 · 11 pts vs 8.2 for an average club · +0.8 vs expected

D15 OctH · Real Sociedad1–11.9 xPts
D11 OctH · OH Leuven1–12.7 xPts
W20 SepA · Antwerp2–02.1 xPts
W17 SepA · Plzen3–01.4 xPts
W12 SepH · Lommel United5–02.2 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Celta Vigo	Union St. Gilloise
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 12
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	5.2La Liga 2026-2027, 31 Oct	5Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 31 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	1,381 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	930 km	81 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 6	1 / 2 / 5
Next matchdays after this one	2.9	2.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Celta Vigo Last XI · not confirmed

3-4-3 · vs Alaves (H) 2–1, 18 Oct

13I. Radu(G)

21S. Cáceres 18Yoel Lago 20Javi Rodríguez

23Hugo Álvarez 6I. Moriba 30H. Burcio 5Sergio Carreira

19W. Swedberg 9Ferran Jutglà 24C. Driouech

Union St. Gilloise Last XI · not confirmed

3-1-4-2 · vs Real Sociedad (H) 1–1, 15 Oct

12H. Koffi(G)

55Nikki Havenaar 29M. Sylla 4N. Chibani

6K. Van de Perre

11G. da Silva Carvalho 28D. Olaru 23B. Zeneli 27L. Patris

38R. Mofokeng 9Mateo Biondic

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Celta Vigo No reported absences

Union St. Gilloise No reported absences

Total impact vs full squads

Celta Vigo+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Union St. Gilloise+0.0 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Celta Vigo · Home 0.00points per game · 1 home games

W-D-L: 0-0-1
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 2.00

Union St. Gilloise · Away 3.00points per game · 1 away games

W-D-L: 1-0-0
Scored: 3.00
Conceded: 0.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	Celta Vigo	Union St. Gilloise	Forecast
Scored per game	0.50	2.00
Conceded per game	1.50	0.50
Match goals	2.00	2.50	2.73
Over 1.5	50%	100%
Over 2.5	50%	50%	51%
Over 3.5	0%	0%
Both teams scored	50%	50%	56%
Clean sheets	0%	50%
Failed to score	50%	0%
Games	2	2

	Celta Vigo	Union St. Gilloise	Forecast
Scored per game	1.10	2.30
Conceded per game	1.00	0.70
Match goals	2.10	3.00	2.73
Over 1.5	70%	90%
Over 2.5	40%	60%	51%
Over 3.5	10%	30%
Both teams scored	50%	40%	56%
Clean sheets	30%	60%
Failed to score	40%	10%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Celta Vigo	Union St. Gilloise	League
Corners
Corners won	5.00	2.50
Corners conceded	5.00	3.50
Match total	10.00	6.00	9.76
Over 8.5	50% 1/2	0% 0/2
Over 9.5	50% 1/2	0% 0/2
Over 10.5	50% 1/2	0% 0/2
Cards
Cards	1.50	1.50
Opponent cards	1.00	1.50
Match total	2.50	3.00	3.76
Over 3.5	50% 1/2	50% 1/2
Over 4.5	0% 0/2	0% 0/2

	Celta Vigo	Union St. Gilloise	League
Corners
Corners won	3.67	4.80
Corners conceded	5.22	3.90
Match total	8.89	8.70	9.76
Over 8.5	33% 3/9	50% 5/10
Over 9.5	33% 3/9	50% 5/10
Over 10.5	33% 3/9	40% 4/10
Cards
Cards	1.60	2.00
Opponent cards	1.90	1.90
Match total	3.50	3.90	3.76
Over 3.5	40% 4/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.