Malaga vs Racing Santander

La Liga Gameweek 12 Sat, Nov 7 · 13:00 Estadio La Rosaleda, Málaga

Malaga 20th · 4 pts · 9 played DLLDL

VS— Compare

Racing Santander 16th · 8 pts · 9 played WLLDL

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Malaga are slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Malaga have 6.8 days of rest, Racing Santander 5.9 and have to travel 752 km.

Away travel752 kmRest days6.8 · 5.9Matches / 14d1 · 2

Malaga45%

Draw24%

Racing Santander31%

Expected goals 1.74 – 1.42

Malaga43%

Draw27%

Racing Santander30%

Expected goals 1.49 – 1.20

Malaga45%

Draw24%

Racing Santander31%

Expected goals 1.74 – 1.42

Malaga37%

Draw25%

Racing Santander38%

Expected goals 1.56 – 1.59

Malaga45%

Draw24%

Racing Santander31%

Expected goals 1.85 – 1.51

Over 2.5 61% Both score 63% Likeliest score 1–1

EloLambda forecast, updated 11 hours ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Málaga)

Forecast from 23 Oct

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Trend Racing Santander 67% Both teams scored Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored

Defence

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Team strength

Malaga

Racing Santander

41 L90 StrengthIn forecast 41

41 Current StrengthIn forecast 41

28 AttackIn forecast 42

31 DefenceIn forecast 22

15 Form indexContext 34

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Malaga

Attack+41%

Defense risk−14%

Racing Santander

Attack+29%

Defense risk−23%

Both teams face a more favorable matchup than their league-average baseline.

Playing style

Malaga

Racing Santander

0.67 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.44

2.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.78

0.84 xGVia Att/Def 1.31

1.68 xG allowedVia Att/Def 2.28

-0.17 Goals minus xGContext +0.13

56% Scored inContext 67%

11% Clean sheetsContext 0%

11.33 ShotsContext 11.22

3.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.44

27% On target shareContext 40%

6.67 Shots in the boxContext 6.38

62% Box shareContext 54%

6% ConversionContext 13%

1.63 OffsidesContext 1.78

14.89 Shots allowedContext 16.33

5.89 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.67

4.00 BlocksContext 3.56

3.78 Goalkeeper savesContext 5.00

64% Save rateContext 61%

51% PossessionIn forecast 50%

481 PassesContext 437

417 Accurate passesContext 362

87% Pass accuracyContext 83%

6.70 Team ratingContext 6.62

11.56 FoulsContext 13.78

11.67 Fouls sufferedContext 14.78

2.44 Yellow cardsContext 2.67

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.11

This league season, per match · 9 and 9 games

0.80 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.70

1.90 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.60

0.84 xGVia Att/Def 1.47

1.68 xG allowedVia Att/Def 2.17

-0.04 Goals minus xGContext +0.23

60% Scored inContext 70%

10% Clean sheetsContext 0%

11.40 ShotsContext 12.20

3.20 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.80

28% On target shareContext 39%

7.00 Shots in the boxContext 7.56

64% Box shareContext 57%

7% ConversionContext 14%

1.63 OffsidesContext 1.80

14.70 Shots allowedContext 15.90

5.90 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.30

3.70 BlocksContext 3.40

3.90 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.63

66% Save rateContext 62%

51% PossessionIn forecast 50%

474 PassesContext 441

408 Accurate passesContext 367

86% Pass accuracyContext 83%

6.74 Team ratingContext 6.70

10.90 FoulsContext 13.40

11.50 Fouls sufferedContext 14.10

2.50 Yellow cardsContext 2.40

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Malaga DLLDL

Rest6.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km313 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 15 · 2 pts vs 6.8 for an average club · -4.7 vs expected

L18 OctH · Real Sociedad2–51.5 xPts
D9 OctH · Espanyol1–11.6 xPts
L20 SepA · Getafe0–11.2 xPts
L17 SepH · Villarreal1–31.3 xPts
D13 SepA · Celta Vigo1–11.2 xPts

Racing Santander WLLDL

Rest5.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel752 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

Form 34 · 4 pts vs 5.8 for an average club · -1.4 vs expected

L18 OctA · Osasuna0–21.1 xPts
D11 OctH · Valencia2–21.6 xPts
L19 SepA · Celta Vigo0–51.2 xPts
L16 SepA · Barcelona2–70.2 xPts
W12 SepH · Alaves2–11.3 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Malaga	Racing Santander
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6.8La Liga 2026-2027, 31 Oct	5.9La Liga 2026-2027, 1 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	752 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	313 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 3	1 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	15.1	15.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Malaga Last XI · not confirmed

4-4-2 · vs Real Sociedad (H) 2–5, 18 Oct

1Alfonso Herrero(G)

12José Salinas 15Ángel Recio 20F. Calero Villa 31Rafita

18Pablo Martínez 8Carlos Dotor 23Izan Merino 10David Larrubia

9Chupe 21Adrián Niño

Racing Santander Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Osasuna (A) 0–2, 18 Oct

13Julen Agirrezabala(G)

17Jorge Salinas 24J. Belocian 5Pablo Ramón 2Álvaro Mantilla

18M. Prati 23Iván Martín

10Iñigo Vicente 8André Almeida 20Sergio Canales

21M. Zabiri

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Malaga No reported absences

Racing Santander No reported absences

Total impact vs full squads

Malaga+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Racing Santander+0.0 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Malaga · Home 0.60points per game · 5 home games

W-D-L: 0-3-2
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 2.00

Racing Santander · Away 0.00points per game · 5 away games

W-D-L: 0-0-5
Scored: 0.80
Conceded: 3.60

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 3 this season

Opponent	Malaga	Racing Santander
Getafe	L 0–1 A	L 0–1 A
Villarreal	L 1–3 H	D 2–2 H
Celta Vigo	D 1–1 A	L 0–5 A
Points	1 of 9 · 0.33 per game	1 of 9 · 0.33 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings

0 Malaga wins1 draws1 Racing Santander wins

Goals per game0.50 – 2.00 Over 2.550% Both scored50% Clean sheets0% · 50%

24 May 2026Malaga1–1Racing Santander
5 Oct 2025Racing Santander3–0Malaga

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Malaga	Racing Santander	Forecast
Scored per game	0.67	1.44
Conceded per game	2.00	2.78
Match goals	2.67	4.22	3.17
Over 1.5	78%	89%
Over 2.5	33%	78%	61%
Over 3.5	33%	67%
Both teams scored	56%	67%	63%
Clean sheets	11%	0%
Failed to score	44%	33%
Games	9	9

	Malaga	Racing Santander	Forecast
Scored per game	0.67	1.44
Conceded per game	2.00	2.78
Match goals	2.67	4.22	3.17
Over 1.5	78%	89%
Over 2.5	33%	78%	61%
Over 3.5	33%	67%
Both teams scored	56%	67%	63%
Clean sheets	11%	0%
Failed to score	44%	33%
Games	9	9

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Malaga	Racing Santander	League
Corners
Corners won	5.56	5.25
Corners conceded	4.89	7.00
Match total	10.45	12.25	9.91
Over 8.5	78% 7/9	88% 7/8
Over 9.5	67% 6/9	88% 7/8
Over 10.5	44% 4/9	75% 6/8
Cards
Cards	2.44	2.78
Opponent cards	2.33	2.67
Match total	4.77	5.45	4.73
Over 3.5	67% 6/9	89% 8/9
Over 4.5	67% 6/9	78% 7/9

	Malaga	Racing Santander	League
Corners
Corners won	5.70	5.00
Corners conceded	5.10	6.56
Match total	10.80	11.56	9.91
Over 8.5	80% 8/10	78% 7/9
Over 9.5	70% 7/10	78% 7/9
Over 10.5	50% 5/10	67% 6/9
Cards
Cards	2.60	2.50
Opponent cards	2.30	2.40
Match total	4.90	4.90	4.73
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	80% 8/10
Over 4.5	70% 7/10	70% 7/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.