Sevilla vs Alaves – 6 Nov 2026

La Liga Gameweek 12 Fri, Nov 6 · 20:00 Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán, Sevilla

Sevilla 6th · 14 pts · 9 played WWLDL

VS— Compare

Alaves 7th · 11 pts · 9 played LLDLL

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Sevilla are slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Sevilla have 5.3 days of rest, Alaves 6 and have to travel 669 km.

Away travel669 kmRest days5.3 · 6Matches / 14d2 · 1

Sevilla44%

Draw27%

Alaves29%

Expected goals 1.48 – 1.16

Sevilla45%

Draw27%

Alaves29%

Expected goals 1.53 – 1.17

Sevilla44%

Draw27%

Alaves29%

Expected goals 1.48 – 1.16

Sevilla37%

Draw28%

Alaves36%

Expected goals 1.32 – 1.30

Sevilla45%

Draw25%

Alaves29%

Expected goals 1.66 – 1.29

Over 2.5 49% Both score 54% Likeliest score 1–1

EloLambda forecast, updated 11 hours ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Sevilla)

Forecast from 22 Oct

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Defence

Streaks

Streak Sevilla 9 Scoring in a row Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Scoring in a row

Team strength

Sevilla

Alaves

50 L90 StrengthIn forecast 48

50 Current StrengthIn forecast 48

48 AttackIn forecast 48

57 DefenceIn forecast 55

67 Form indexContext 14

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Sevilla

Attack+4%

Defense risk−11%

Alaves

Attack+2%

Defense risk−11%

Both teams face a more favorable matchup than their league-average baseline.

Playing style

Sevilla

Alaves

1.56 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.44

1.78 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.11

1.05 xGVia Att/Def 1.24

1.47 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.22

+0.51 Goals minus xGContext +0.20

100% Scored inContext 78%

22% Clean sheetsContext 33%

11.78 ShotsContext 12.78

4.33 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.38

37% On target shareContext 37%

7.44 Shots in the boxContext 8.88

61% Box shareContext 62%

13% ConversionContext 11%

2.14 OffsidesContext 3.88

12.67 Shots allowedContext 12.33

5.63 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.33

3.29 BlocksContext 4.50

3.38 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.22

60% Save rateContext 74%

41% PossessionIn forecast 42%

344 PassesContext 340

267 Accurate passesContext 270

78% Pass accuracyContext 80%

6.74 Team ratingContext 6.84

14.67 FoulsContext 13.67

12.89 Fouls sufferedContext 13.33

3.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.67

0.22 Red cardsContext 0.11

This league season, per match · 9 and 9 games

1.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.40

1.70 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20

1.03 xGVia Att/Def 1.28

1.48 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.23

+0.37 Goals minus xGContext +0.12

90% Scored inContext 80%

20% Clean sheetsContext 30%

11.50 ShotsContext 13.40

4.10 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.00

36% On target shareContext 40%

7.10 Shots in the boxContext 9.11

59% Box shareContext 61%

12% ConversionContext 10%

2.13 OffsidesContext 3.78

12.60 Shots allowedContext 12.60

5.33 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.60

3.00 BlocksContext 4.22

3.22 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.40

60% Save rateContext 74%

42% PossessionIn forecast 43%

353 PassesContext 341

278 Accurate passesContext 271

79% Pass accuracyContext 80%

6.72 Team ratingContext 6.84

15.20 FoulsContext 13.60

12.70 Fouls sufferedContext 13.40

2.80 Yellow cardsContext 1.80

0.20 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Sevilla WWLDL

Rest5.3 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km757 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 67 · 7 pts vs 5.0 for an average club · +2.1 vs expected

L18 OctA · Real Madrid1–40.4 xPts
D12 OctA · Levante3–31.2 xPts
L19 SepH · Barcelona1–30.5 xPts
W16 SepA · Deportivo La Coruna1–01.2 xPts
W11 SepH · Valencia1–01.7 xPts

Alaves LLDLL

Rest6 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel669 km861 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

Form 14 · 1 pts vs 6.0 for an average club · -6.0 vs expected

L18 OctA · Celta Vigo1–21.3 xPts
L10 OctH · Atletico Madrid1–21.2 xPts
D19 SepA · Athletic Club0–01.1 xPts
L15 SepH · Valencia0–11.9 xPts
L12 SepA · Racing Santander1–21.5 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Sevilla	Alaves
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	5.3La Liga 2026-2027, 1 Nov	6La Liga 2026-2027, 31 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	669 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	757 km	861 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 4	1 / 1 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	15.8	15.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Sevilla Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Real Madrid (A) 1–4, 18 Oct

1O. Vlachodimos(G)

17G. Suazo 4Kike Salas 5A. López Gallo 2Juan Iglesias

24Y. Fofana 6L. Agoumé

20Félix Correia 10Peque Fernández 11R. Vargas

9R. Ure

Alaves Last XI · not confirmed

5-3-2 · vs Celta Vigo (A) 1–2, 18 Oct

1Antonio Sivera(G)

21A. Rebbach 2N. Valentini 16V. Koski 17Jonny 14F. Tenaglia

10Carles Aleñá 8Antonio Blanco 19Pablo Ibáñez

15L. Boyé 11Toni Martínez

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Sevilla No reported absences

Alaves No reported absences

Total impact vs full squads

Sevilla+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Alaves+0.0 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Sevilla · Home 1.50points per game · 4 home games

W-D-L: 2-0-2
Scored: 1.25
Conceded: 1.75

Alaves · Away 0.50points per game · 4 away games

W-D-L: 0-2-2
Scored: 0.75
Conceded: 1.25

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 4 this season

Opponent	Sevilla	Alaves
Valencia	W 1–0 H	L 0–1 H
Atletico Madrid	L 1–3 H	L 1–2 H
Athletic Club	W 3–1 A	D 0–0 A
Rayo Vallecano	W 2–1 H	D 1–1 A
Points	9 of 12 · 2.25 per game	2 of 12 · 0.50 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings

3 Sevilla wins4 draws3 Alaves wins

Goals per game1.50 – 1.50 Over 2.560% Both scored80% Clean sheets20% · 10%

14 Feb 2026Sevilla1–1Alaves
20 Sep 2025Alaves1–2Sevilla
20 Apr 2025Sevilla1–1Alaves
20 Sep 2024Alaves2–1Sevilla
12 Jan 2024Sevilla2–3Alaves
21 Aug 2023Alaves4–3Sevilla

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Sevilla	Alaves	Forecast
Scored per game	1.56	1.44
Conceded per game	1.78	1.11
Match goals	3.33	2.56	2.64
Over 1.5	78%	67%
Over 2.5	67%	56%	49%
Over 3.5	56%	11%
Both teams scored	78%	56%	54%
Clean sheets	22%	33%
Failed to score	0%	22%
Games	9	9

	Sevilla	Alaves	Forecast
Scored per game	1.40	1.40
Conceded per game	1.70	1.20
Match goals	3.10	2.60	2.64
Over 1.5	70%	70%
Over 2.5	60%	60%	49%
Over 3.5	50%	10%
Both teams scored	70%	60%	54%
Clean sheets	20%	30%
Failed to score	10%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Sevilla	Alaves	League
Corners
Corners won	3.00	4.29
Corners conceded	3.56	5.14
Match total	6.56	9.43	9.84
Over 8.5	22% 2/9	43% 3/7
Over 9.5	22% 2/9	43% 3/7
Over 10.5	11% 1/9	29% 2/7
Cards
Cards	3.33	1.78
Opponent cards	2.11	2.33
Match total	5.44	4.11	4.68
Over 3.5	78% 7/9	56% 5/9
Over 4.5	56% 5/9	33% 3/9

	Sevilla	Alaves	League
Corners
Corners won	3.00	5.00
Corners conceded	3.60	5.13
Match total	6.60	10.13	9.84
Over 8.5	20% 2/10	50% 4/8
Over 9.5	20% 2/10	50% 4/8
Over 10.5	10% 1/10	38% 3/8
Cards
Cards	3.10	1.90
Opponent cards	2.00	2.40
Match total	5.10	4.30	4.68
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.