Excelsior vs Twente – 1 Nov 2026

Eredivisie Gameweek 11 Sun, Nov 1 · 13:30 Van Donge & De Roo Stadion, Rotterdam

Excelsior 10th · 11 pts · 9 played DLDLL

VS— Compare

Twente 5th · 17 pts · 9 played WWWDL

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Twente are slight favourites.

Twente are the stronger side on L90 Strength (45 vs 21). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Twente. Excelsior have 7.1 days of rest, Twente 6.8 and have to travel 168 km. Conditions look neutral.

Away travel168 kmRest days7.1 · 6.8Matches / 14d1 · 2

Excelsior26%

Draw23%

Twente51%

Expected goals 1.34 – 1.92

Excelsior28%

Draw27%

Twente45%

Expected goals 1.17 – 1.53

Excelsior26%

Draw23%

Twente51%

Expected goals 1.34 – 1.92

Excelsior20%

Draw21%

Twente59%

Expected goals 1.20 – 2.16

Excelsior27%

Draw24%

Twente49%

Expected goals 1.30 – 1.82

Over 2.5 63% Both score 64% Likeliest score 1–1

EloLambda forecast, updated 7 hours ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Rotterdam)

14°CMainly clear

Precipitation 23%
Wind 10 km/h
Humidity 79%

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Defence

Streaks

Streak Twente 8 Scoring in a row Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Scoring in a row

Team strength

Excelsior

Twente

21 L90 StrengthIn forecast 45

21 Current StrengthIn forecast 45

21 AttackIn forecast 41

18 DefenceIn forecast 49

11 Form indexContext 58

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Excelsior

Attack−17%

Defense risk+13%

Twente

Attack+13%

Defense risk−15%

Changes versus each team's league-average baseline. Higher attack and lower defense risk are favorable.

Playing style

Excelsior

Twente

1.78 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.89

2.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.11

1.60 xGVia Att/Def 1.63

1.93 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.74

+0.18 Goals minus xGContext +0.26

89% Scored inContext 89%

22% Clean sheetsContext 22%

10.78 ShotsContext 20.56

3.78 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 7.00

35% On target shareContext 34%

8.25 Shots in the boxContext 13.44

70% Box shareContext 65%

17% ConversionContext 9%

1.00 OffsidesContext 1.57

15.67 Shots allowedContext 11.11

5.22 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.89

4.22 BlocksContext 4.57

3.33 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.67

64% Save rateContext 69%

43% PossessionIn forecast 58%

390 PassesContext 535

309 Accurate passesContext 462

79% Pass accuracyContext 86%

6.73 Team ratingContext 6.97

11.56 FoulsContext 11.33

7.33 Fouls sufferedContext 8.44

1.22 Yellow cardsContext 0.78

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 9 and 9 games

1.90 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.90

2.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20

1.47 xGVia Att/Def 1.63

1.89 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.74

+0.43 Goals minus xGContext +0.27

90% Scored inContext 90%

20% Clean sheetsContext 20%

11.30 ShotsContext 20.56

3.80 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 7.00

34% On target shareContext 34%

8.00 Shots in the boxContext 13.44

66% Box shareContext 65%

17% ConversionContext 9%

1.00 OffsidesContext 1.57

15.80 Shots allowedContext 11.11

5.10 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.89

4.50 BlocksContext 4.57

3.30 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.67

65% Save rateContext 69%

43% PossessionIn forecast 58%

389 PassesContext 535

309 Accurate passesContext 462

79% Pass accuracyContext 86%

6.73 Team ratingContext 6.97

11.80 FoulsContext 11.33

7.60 Fouls sufferedContext 8.44

1.10 Yellow cardsContext 1.00

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Excelsior DLDLL

Rest7.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km282 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 11 · 2 pts vs 7.9 for an average club · -4.1 vs expected

L16 OctA · Heerenveen0–40.9 xPts
L11 OctH · Groningen1–51.7 xPts
D19 SepA · Ajax2–20.7 xPts
L13 SepH · Utrecht1–21.9 xPts
D8 SepA · NEC Nijmegen2–21.0 xPts

Twente WWWDL

Rest6.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel168 km305 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 58 · 10 pts vs 9.1 for an average club · +0.4 vs expected

L18 OctH · Utrecht1–22.1 xPts
D10 OctA · Fortuna Sittard1–11.9 xPts
W20 SepH · PSV Eindhoven3–21.0 xPts
W12 SepH · ADO Den Haag2–02.4 xPts
W9 SepH · Telstar1–02.2 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Excelsior	Twente
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7.1Eredivisie 2026-2027, 25 Oct	6.8Eredivisie 2026-2027, 25 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	168 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	282 km	305 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 3	1 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	6.3	7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Excelsior Last XI · not confirmed

4-3-3 · vs Heerenveen (A) 0–4, 16 Oct

1S. van Gassel(G)

15Simon Janssen 14J. Plug 4C. Widell 2E. da Silva Moreira

20L. Hartjes 3R. Meissen 8I. Yegoian

30Á. Þorsteinsson 19D. Garden 7Aymen Sliti

Twente Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Utrecht (H) 1–2, 18 Oct

16J. Drommel(G)

29A. Adelgaard 4Ruud Nijstad 3R. Pröpper 28B. van Rooij

8D. Weidmann 6R. Zerrouki

27S. Ørjasæter 14K. Hlynsson 11D. Rots

9W. Weghorst

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Excelsior No reported absences

Twente No reported absences

Total impact vs full squads

Excelsior+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Twente+0.0 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Excelsior · Home 0.75points per game · 4 home games

W-D-L: 1-0-3
Scored: 1.25
Conceded: 2.50

Twente · Away 1.25points per game · 4 away games

W-D-L: 1-2-1
Scored: 1.75
Conceded: 1.25

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 5 this season

Opponent	Excelsior	Twente
Heerenveen	L 0–4 A	L 0–1 A
Groningen	L 1–5 H	D 2–2 A
Utrecht	L 1–2 H	L 1–2 H
PSV Eindhoven	L 1–2 H	W 3–2 H
Cambuur	W 4–0 A	W 4–1 A
Points	3 of 15 · 0.60 per game	7 of 15 · 1.40 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings

1 Excelsior wins1 draws2 Twente wins

Goals per game0.75 – 1.75 Over 2.550% Both scored25% Clean sheets50% · 50%

24 Jan 2026Twente0–0Excelsior
30 Aug 2025Excelsior1–0Twente
10 Feb 2024Excelsior0–3Twente
8 Dec 2023Twente4–2Excelsior

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Excelsior	Twente	Forecast
Scored per game	1.78	1.89
Conceded per game	2.00	1.11
Match goals	3.78	3.00	3.27
Over 1.5	100%	78%
Over 2.5	100%	56%	63%
Over 3.5	56%	44%
Both teams scored	67%	67%	64%
Clean sheets	22%	22%
Failed to score	11%	11%
Games	9	9

	Excelsior	Twente	Forecast
Scored per game	1.90	1.90
Conceded per game	2.00	1.20
Match goals	3.90	3.10	3.27
Over 1.5	100%	80%
Over 2.5	100%	60%	63%
Over 3.5	60%	50%
Both teams scored	70%	70%	64%
Clean sheets	20%	20%
Failed to score	10%	10%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Excelsior	Twente	League
Corners
Corners won	4.25	7.22
Corners conceded	4.50	3.89
Match total	8.75	11.11	10.39
Over 8.5	50% 4/8	100% 9/9
Over 9.5	38% 3/8	78% 7/9
Over 10.5	25% 2/8	67% 6/9
Cards
Cards	1.22	0.78
Opponent cards	0.78	1.56
Match total	2.00	2.34	2.77
Over 3.5	11% 1/9	22% 2/9
Over 4.5	0% 0/9	0% 0/9

	Excelsior	Twente	League
Corners
Corners won	4.00	7.22
Corners conceded	4.56	3.89
Match total	8.56	11.11	10.39
Over 8.5	44% 4/9	100% 9/9
Over 9.5	33% 3/9	78% 7/9
Over 10.5	22% 2/9	67% 6/9
Cards
Cards	1.10	1.00
Opponent cards	1.10	1.60
Match total	2.20	2.60	2.77
Over 3.5	20% 2/10	30% 3/10
Over 4.5	0% 0/10	10% 1/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.