Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar – 31 Oct 2026

Eredivisie Gameweek 11 Sat, Oct 31 · 20:00 Johan Cruijff Arena, Amsterdam

Ajax 4th · 18 pts · 9 played WWDDW

VS— Compare

AZ Alkmaar 2nd · 20 pts · 9 played WDWLD

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Ajax are slight favourites.

Ajax are the stronger side on L90 Strength (53 vs 47). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Ajax. Ajax have 6.2 days of rest, AZ Alkmaar 6 and have to travel 30 km. Conditions look neutral.

Away travel30 kmRest days6.2 · 6Matches / 14d2 · 3

Ajax54%

Draw21%

AZ Alkmaar25%

Expected goals 2.23 – 1.48

Ajax47%

Draw26%

AZ Alkmaar26%

Expected goals 1.59 – 1.13

Ajax54%

Draw21%

AZ Alkmaar25%

Expected goals 2.23 – 1.48

Ajax46%

Draw22%

AZ Alkmaar32%

Expected goals 1.99 – 1.65

Ajax53%

Draw22%

AZ Alkmaar25%

Expected goals 2.03 – 1.35

Over 2.5 72% Both score 69% Likeliest score 2–1

EloLambda forecast, updated 6 hours ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Amsterdam)

8°CClear

Precipitation 25%
Wind 4 km/h
Humidity 92%

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Defence

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Streaks

Team strength

Ajax

AZ Alkmaar

53 L90 StrengthIn forecast 47

53 Current StrengthIn forecast 47

66 AttackIn forecast 52

55 DefenceIn forecast 49

63 Form indexContext 43

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Ajax

Attack−17%

Defense risk+25%

AZ Alkmaar

Attack−22%

Defense risk+42%

Both teams face a less favorable matchup than their league-average baseline.

Playing style

Ajax

AZ Alkmaar

3.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.22

1.33 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.11

2.06 xGVia Att/Def 2.34

1.12 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.20

+0.94 Goals minus xGContext -0.12

100% Scored inContext 89%

22% Clean sheetsContext 33%

22.78 ShotsContext 17.33

8.11 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.56

36% On target shareContext 38%

16.22 Shots in the boxContext 12.38

71% Box shareContext 68%

13% ConversionContext 13%

2.13 OffsidesContext 2.50

10.00 Shots allowedContext 9.00

4.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.00

2.67 BlocksContext 2.88

3.13 Goalkeeper savesContext 1.89

74% Save rateContext 63%

62% PossessionIn forecast 59%

581 PassesContext 536

516 Accurate passesContext 460

89% Pass accuracyContext 86%

7.03 Team ratingContext 6.93

9.56 FoulsContext 11.89

9.89 Fouls sufferedContext 11.56

2.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.22

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 9 and 9 games

2.90 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.00

1.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20

2.03 xGVia Att/Def 2.20

0.96 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.40

+0.87 Goals minus xGContext -0.20

100% Scored inContext 80%

30% Clean sheetsContext 20%

21.70 ShotsContext 16.90

7.80 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.30

36% On target shareContext 37%

15.40 Shots in the boxContext 11.67

71% Box shareContext 65%

13% ConversionContext 12%

2.33 OffsidesContext 2.20

9.50 Shots allowedContext 9.70

3.70 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.40

2.60 BlocksContext 2.89

2.89 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.30

74% Save rateContext 68%

62% PossessionIn forecast 59%

576 PassesContext 543

509 Accurate passesContext 466

88% Pass accuracyContext 86%

7.05 Team ratingContext 6.87

9.80 FoulsContext 12.40

10.50 Fouls sufferedContext 12.00

1.90 Yellow cardsContext 1.70

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Ajax WWDDW

Rest6.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km409 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 63 · 11 pts vs 9.5 for an average club · +0.9 vs expected

W18 OctA · Groningen5–21.4 xPts
D10 OctH · NEC Nijmegen1–12.1 xPts
D19 SepH · Excelsior2–22.1 xPts
W15 SepH · Willem II5–12.5 xPts
W12 SepA · Fortuna Sittard5–11.9 xPts

AZ Alkmaar LWLWD

Rest6 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel30 km6,781 km in 14d

Schedule load25%Moderate

Form 43 · 7 pts vs 7.8 for an average club · -1.3 vs expected

D18 OctA · Cambuur2–21.9 xPts
W15 OctH · Hapoel Beer Sheva2–12.0 xPts
L10 OctA · Feyenoord0–21.0 xPts
W20 SepH · Telstar1–02.4 xPts
L16 SepA · Sunderland0–11.1 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Ajax	AZ Alkmaar
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Moderate · 25
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6.2Eredivisie 2026-2027, 25 Oct	6Eredivisie 2026-2027, 25 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	30 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	409 km	6,781 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 3	1 / 3 / 5
Next matchdays after this one	7.7	5

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Ajax Last XI · not confirmed

4-3-3 · vs Groningen (A) 5–2, 18 Oct

1M. ter Stegen(G)

5O. Wijndal 36D. Janse 30A. Bouwman 2Lucas Rosa

24J. Mokio 4S. Amrabat 18D. Klaassen

10O. Gloukh 38Marcos Leonardo 8J. Brandt

AZ Alkmaar Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Cambuur (A) 2–2, 18 Oct

28J. De Busser(G)

5Mateo Chávez 4L. Schouten 3W. Goes 22Elijah Dijkstra

6P. Koopmeiners 8J. Clasie

11Ro-Zangelo Daal 14C. Stengs 24A. Oufkir

9M. Meerdink

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Ajax No reported absences

AZ Alkmaar No reported absences

Total impact vs full squads

Ajax+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
AZ Alkmaar+0.0 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Ajax · Home 1.20points per game · 5 home games

W-D-L: 1-3-1
Scored: 2.20
Conceded: 1.80

AZ Alkmaar · Away 2.00points per game · 5 away games

W-D-L: 3-1-1
Scored: 2.20
Conceded: 1.40

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 4 this season

Opponent	Ajax	AZ Alkmaar
Willem II	W 5–1 H	D 1–1 H
Fortuna Sittard	W 5–1 A	W 2–0 A
Telstar	W 4–0 A	W 1–0 H
Heerenveen	D 2–2 H	W 3–2 A
Points	10 of 12 · 2.50 per game	10 of 12 · 2.50 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings

0 Ajax wins2 draws3 AZ Alkmaar wins

Goals per game1.00 – 1.80 Over 2.560% Both scored80% Clean sheets0% · 20%

8 Feb 2026AZ Alkmaar1–1Ajax
18 Oct 2025Ajax0–2AZ Alkmaar
16 Mar 2025Ajax2–2AZ Alkmaar
8 Dec 2024AZ Alkmaar2–1Ajax
8 Oct 2023Ajax1–2AZ Alkmaar

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Ajax	AZ Alkmaar	Forecast
Scored per game	3.00	2.22
Conceded per game	1.33	1.11
Match goals	4.33	3.33	3.71
Over 1.5	100%	89%
Over 2.5	78%	44%	72%
Over 3.5	78%	44%
Both teams scored	78%	56%	69%
Clean sheets	22%	33%
Failed to score	0%	11%
Games	9	9

	Ajax	AZ Alkmaar	Forecast
Scored per game	2.70	2.00
Conceded per game	1.20	1.20
Match goals	3.90	3.20	3.71
Over 1.5	90%	80%
Over 2.5	70%	50%	72%
Over 3.5	70%	40%
Both teams scored	70%	60%	69%
Clean sheets	30%	20%
Failed to score	10%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Ajax	AZ Alkmaar	League
Corners
Corners won	6.88	8.00
Corners conceded	3.00	3.67
Match total	9.88	11.67	10.39
Over 8.5	63% 5/8	78% 7/9
Over 9.5	50% 4/8	67% 6/9
Over 10.5	38% 3/8	67% 6/9
Cards
Cards	2.00	1.22
Opponent cards	1.78	1.44
Match total	3.78	2.66	2.77
Over 3.5	56% 5/9	33% 3/9
Over 4.5	33% 3/9	22% 2/9

	Ajax	AZ Alkmaar	League
Corners
Corners won	6.88	7.30
Corners conceded	3.00	3.60
Match total	9.88	10.90	10.39
Over 8.5	63% 5/8	70% 7/10
Over 9.5	50% 4/8	60% 6/10
Over 10.5	38% 3/8	60% 6/10
Cards
Cards	1.90	1.70
Opponent cards	2.00	1.90
Match total	3.90	3.60	2.77
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.