Feyenoord vs Fortuna Sittard

Eredivisie Gameweek 11 Sat, Oct 31 · 15:30 Stadion Feijenoord, Rotterdam

Feyenoord 1st · 23 pts · 9 played WWWWW

VS— Compare

Fortuna Sittard 6th · 15 pts · 9 played WLWDD

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Feyenoord are clear favourites.

Feyenoord are the stronger side on L90 Strength (61 vs 21). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Feyenoord. Feyenoord have 6.1 days of rest, Fortuna Sittard 6.2 and have to travel 141 km. Conditions look neutral.

Away travel141 kmRest days6.1 · 6.2Matches / 14d3 · 2

Feyenoord82%

Draw12%

Fortuna Sittard7%

Expected goals 3.18 – 0.88

Feyenoord70%

Draw19%

Fortuna Sittard11%

Expected goals 2.23 – 0.80

Feyenoord82%

Draw12%

Fortuna Sittard7%

Expected goals 3.18 – 0.88

Feyenoord75%

Draw15%

Fortuna Sittard10%

Expected goals 2.84 – 0.99

Feyenoord81%

Draw12%

Fortuna Sittard7%

Expected goals 3.13 – 0.89

Over 2.5 77% Both score 57% Likeliest score 3–0

EloLambda forecast, updated 7 hours ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Rotterdam)

12°CMainly clear

Precipitation 24%
Wind 6 km/h
Humidity 78%

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Defence

Streaks

Team strength

Feyenoord

Fortuna Sittard

61 L90 StrengthIn forecast 21

59 Current StrengthIn forecast 21

76 AttackIn forecast 19

61 DefenceIn forecast 19

92 Form indexContext 45

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Feyenoord

Attack+10%

Defense risk−19%

Fortuna Sittard

Attack−27%

Defense risk+52%

Changes versus each team's league-average baseline. Higher attack and lower defense risk are favorable.

Playing style

Feyenoord

Fortuna Sittard

3.44 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.78

1.11 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.89

2.90 xGVia Att/Def 0.93

1.05 xG allowedVia Att/Def 2.39

+0.54 Goals minus xGContext +0.85

100% Scored inContext 89%

44% Clean sheetsContext 11%

21.33 ShotsContext 10.00

8.22 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.44

39% On target shareContext 44%

15.00 Shots in the boxContext 5.56

70% Box shareContext 57%

16% ConversionContext 18%

1.83 OffsidesContext 2.14

11.11 Shots allowedContext 19.33

3.88 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.22

3.25 BlocksContext 5.22

2.44 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.44

71% Save rateContext 71%

54% PossessionIn forecast 35%

490 PassesContext 316

428 Accurate passesContext 243

87% Pass accuracyContext 77%

7.22 Team ratingContext 6.79

8.78 FoulsContext 9.22

12.22 Fouls sufferedContext 11.67

1.22 Yellow cardsContext 1.44

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.11

This league season, per match · 9 and 9 games

3.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.60

1.70 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.90

2.42 xGVia Att/Def 0.84

1.09 xG allowedVia Att/Def 2.35

+0.98 Goals minus xGContext +0.76

100% Scored inContext 80%

30% Clean sheetsContext 10%

18.70 ShotsContext 10.20

7.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.20

40% On target shareContext 41%

12.80 Shots in the boxContext 5.20

68% Box shareContext 53%

18% ConversionContext 16%

2.71 OffsidesContext 2.00

12.50 Shots allowedContext 19.20

4.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.10

3.67 BlocksContext 5.20

2.80 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.30

62% Save rateContext 71%

50% PossessionIn forecast 36%

473 PassesContext 318

410 Accurate passesContext 245

87% Pass accuracyContext 77%

7.06 Team ratingContext 6.77

10.20 FoulsContext 9.10

12.70 Fouls sufferedContext 11.30

1.30 Yellow cardsContext 1.40

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Feyenoord WWWWW

Rest6.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel0 km3,920 km in 14d

Schedule load25%Moderate

Form 92 · 15 pts vs 8.3 for an average club · +5.2 vs expected

W17 OctA · Telstar4–32.1 xPts
W14 OctH · Como3–21.6 xPts
W10 OctH · AZ Alkmaar2–01.8 xPts
W20 SepH · Utrecht5–02.3 xPts
W13 SepA · PEC Zwolle7–02.0 xPts

Fortuna Sittard WLWDD

Rest6.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel141 km188 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 45 · 8 pts vs 8.6 for an average club · +2.7 vs expected

D18 OctA · NEC Nijmegen2–20.9 xPts
D10 OctH · Twente1–10.9 xPts
W19 SepA · Willem II1–01.4 xPts
L12 SepH · Ajax1–50.9 xPts
W6 SepA · ADO Den Haag3–21.3 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Feyenoord	Fortuna Sittard
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Moderate · 25	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6.1Eredivisie 2026-2027, 25 Oct	6.2Eredivisie 2026-2027, 25 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	141 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	3,920 km	188 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 3 / 5	1 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	3.2	7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Feyenoord Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Telstar (A) 4–3, 17 Oct

1T. Ernst(G)

35Mika Màrmol 24T. Kraaijeveld 4T. Watanabe 26G. Read

34C. Vanhoutte 8G. Zechiël

27G. Diarra 14S. Steijn 23A. Hadj Moussa

19Nacho Ferri

Fortuna Sittard Last XI · not confirmed

5-3-2 · vs NEC Nijmegen (A) 2–2, 18 Oct

31M. Branderhorst(G)

28J. Hubner 23P. Brittijn 3R. Guth 6S. van Ottele 12Ivo Pinto

22S. ’t Zand 20É. Michut 14S. Simons

25L. Zeefuik 9A. Descotte

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Feyenoord No reported absences

Fortuna Sittard No reported absences

Total impact vs full squads

Feyenoord+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Fortuna Sittard+0.0 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Feyenoord · Home 2.00points per game · 4 home games

W-D-L: 2-2-0
Scored: 2.75
Conceded: 1.00

Fortuna Sittard · Away 2.20points per game · 5 away games

W-D-L: 3-2-0
Scored: 2.20
Conceded: 1.60

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 4 this season

Opponent	Feyenoord	Fortuna Sittard
AZ Alkmaar	W 2–0 H	L 0–2 H
NEC Nijmegen	W 3–1 A	D 2–2 A
ADO Den Haag	D 2–2 H	W 3–2 A
Cambuur	W 5–2 A	W 3–1 H
Points	10 of 12 · 2.50 per game	7 of 12 · 1.75 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings

3 Feyenoord wins2 draws0 Fortuna Sittard wins

Goals per game1.40 – 0.40 Over 2.520% Both scored40% Clean sheets60% · 20%

3 May 2026Fortuna Sittard1–2Feyenoord
17 Sep 2025Feyenoord2–0Fortuna Sittard
12 Apr 2025Fortuna Sittard0–2Feyenoord
30 Nov 2024Feyenoord1–1Fortuna Sittard
13 Aug 2023Feyenoord0–0Fortuna Sittard

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Feyenoord	Fortuna Sittard	Forecast
Scored per game	3.44	1.78
Conceded per game	1.11	1.89
Match goals	4.56	3.67	4.06
Over 1.5	89%	89%
Over 2.5	78%	67%	77%
Over 3.5	78%	67%
Both teams scored	56%	78%	57%
Clean sheets	44%	11%
Failed to score	0%	11%
Games	9	9

	Feyenoord	Fortuna Sittard	Forecast
Scored per game	3.40	1.60
Conceded per game	1.70	1.90
Match goals	5.10	3.50	4.06
Over 1.5	100%	90%
Over 2.5	90%	60%	77%
Over 3.5	90%	60%
Both teams scored	70%	70%	57%
Clean sheets	30%	10%
Failed to score	0%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Feyenoord	Fortuna Sittard	League
Corners
Corners won	6.22	3.33
Corners conceded	4.11	8.67
Match total	10.33	12.00	10.39
Over 8.5	67% 6/9	83% 5/6
Over 9.5	67% 6/9	67% 4/6
Over 10.5	67% 6/9	67% 4/6
Cards
Cards	1.22	1.56
Opponent cards	1.44	1.78
Match total	2.66	3.34	2.77
Over 3.5	44% 4/9	44% 4/9
Over 4.5	11% 1/9	22% 2/9

	Feyenoord	Fortuna Sittard	League
Corners
Corners won	5.20	3.43
Corners conceded	3.70	7.71
Match total	8.90	11.14	10.39
Over 8.5	50% 5/10	71% 5/7
Over 9.5	50% 5/10	57% 4/7
Over 10.5	50% 5/10	57% 4/7
Cards
Cards	1.30	1.50
Opponent cards	1.40	1.60
Match total	2.70	3.10	2.77
Over 3.5	40% 4/10	40% 4/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.