PEC Zwolle vs ADO Den Haag

Eredivisie Gameweek 11 Sun, Nov 1 · 11:15 MAC³PARK Stadion, Zwolle

PEC Zwolle 15th · 7 pts · 9 played DLLLW

VS— Compare

ADO Den Haag 17th · 6 pts · 9 played LLDDW

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

PEC Zwolle are slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards ADO Den Haag. PEC Zwolle have 7.9 days of rest, ADO Den Haag 7.7 and have to travel. Conditions look neutral.

Rest days7.9 · 7.7Matches / 14d1 · 1

PEC Zwolle44%

Draw24%

ADO Den Haag31%

Expected goals 1.74 – 1.43

PEC Zwolle46%

Draw27%

ADO Den Haag28%

Expected goals 1.55 – 1.16

PEC Zwolle44%

Draw24%

ADO Den Haag31%

Expected goals 1.74 – 1.43

PEC Zwolle36%

Draw25%

ADO Den Haag39%

Expected goals 1.55 – 1.61

PEC Zwolle45%

Draw24%

ADO Den Haag31%

Expected goals 1.73 – 1.41

Over 2.5 61% Both score 63% Likeliest score 1–1

EloLambda forecast, updated 6 hours ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Zwolle)

10°CFog

Precipitation 16%
Wind 9 km/h
Humidity 84%

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Trend ADO Den Haag 78% Both teams scored Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored

Defence

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Team strength

PEC Zwolle

ADO Den Haag

16 L90 StrengthIn forecast 15

16 Current StrengthIn forecast 15

17 AttackIn forecast 15

14 DefenceIn forecast 18

15 Form indexContext 24

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

PEC Zwolle

Attack+15%

Defense risk−22%

ADO Den Haag

Attack+21%

Defense risk−20%

Both teams face a more favorable matchup than their league-average baseline.

Playing style

PEC Zwolle

ADO Den Haag

1.11 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.22

2.44 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.22

1.28 xGVia Att/Def 0.93

1.69 xG allowedVia Att/Def 2.20

-0.17 Goals minus xGContext +0.29

56% Scored inContext 78%

11% Clean sheetsContext 0%

12.00 ShotsContext 11.22

4.22 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.56

35% On target shareContext 32%

7.33 Shots in the boxContext 7.25

59% Box shareContext 58%

9% ConversionContext 11%

2.00 OffsidesContext 1.88

19.44 Shots allowedContext 17.33

6.78 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.78

5.78 BlocksContext 4.78

4.33 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.56

64% Save rateContext 67%

41% PossessionIn forecast 48%

348 PassesContext 411

265 Accurate passesContext 334

76% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.59 Team ratingContext 6.65

11.22 FoulsContext 14.00

9.89 Fouls sufferedContext 10.11

1.33 Yellow cardsContext 1.56

0.11 Red cardsContext 0.11

This league season, per match · 9 and 9 games

1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.10

2.40 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.10

1.20 xGVia Att/Def 0.93

1.90 xG allowedVia Att/Def 2.20

-0.20 Goals minus xGContext +0.17

50% Scored inContext 70%

10% Clean sheetsContext 0%

11.50 ShotsContext 11.60

3.90 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.60

34% On target shareContext 31%

7.00 Shots in the boxContext 7.44

58% Box shareContext 58%

9% ConversionContext 10%

2.00 OffsidesContext 1.78

19.70 Shots allowedContext 16.30

6.90 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.30

5.60 BlocksContext 4.60

4.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.20

65% Save rateContext 67%

42% PossessionIn forecast 50%

355 PassesContext 417

271 Accurate passesContext 338

77% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.60 Team ratingContext 6.68

11.20 FoulsContext 13.70

10.00 Fouls sufferedContext 10.60

1.20 Yellow cardsContext 1.50

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

PEC Zwolle DLLLW

Rest7.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km162 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 15 · 4 pts vs 9.0 for an average club · -1.4 vs expected

W18 OctH · GO Ahead Eagles4–11.3 xPts
L11 OctH · Cambuur0–11.4 xPts
L18 SepA · Groningen0–30.8 xPts
L13 SepH · Feyenoord0–70.8 xPts
D4 SepA · Sparta Rotterdam2–21.1 xPts

ADO Den Haag LLDDW

Rest7.7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel—0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 24 · 5 pts vs 8.3 for an average club · +0.5 vs expected

W17 OctH · PSV Eindhoven2–10.4 xPts
D11 OctA · Telstar2–20.9 xPts
D19 SepH · Cambuur1–11.4 xPts
L12 SepA · Twente0–20.4 xPts
L6 SepH · Fortuna Sittard2–31.4 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	PEC Zwolle	ADO Den Haag
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7.9Eredivisie 2026-2027, 24 Oct	7.7Eredivisie 2026-2027, 24 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	—
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	162 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 3	0 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	5.3	6.3

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.

Squad & lineups

PEC Zwolle Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs GO Ahead Eagles (H) 4–1, 18 Oct

1J. Schendelaar(G)

2S. Floranus 24N. Viergever 28S. Graves 3O. Aertssen

8T. Sommer 30R. Thomas

11D. Mbayo 25T. Oosting 37Gilles van der Wal

17S. van Hooijdonk

ADO Den Haag Last XI · not confirmed

5-3-2 · vs PSV Eindhoven (H) 2–1, 17 Oct

1K. Nikiéma(G)

18S. Sylla 4M. Waem 3P. Mulder 22L. Wilhelm 5J. Jensen-Abbew

11E. Rottier 25J. Kilo 8J. Žambůrek

9J. Bal 46Y. Eduardo

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

PEC Zwolle No reported absences

ADO Den Haag No reported absences

Total impact vs full squads

PEC Zwolle+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
ADO Den Haag+0.0 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

PEC Zwolle · Home 0.60points per game · 5 home games

W-D-L: 1-0-4
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 2.80

ADO Den Haag · Away 0.40points per game · 5 away games

W-D-L: 0-2-3
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 2.20

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 5 this season

Opponent	PEC Zwolle	ADO Den Haag
GO Ahead Eagles	W 4–1 H	L 1–3 A
Cambuur	L 0–1 H	D 1–1 H
Groningen	L 0–3 A	L 1–4 H
Feyenoord	L 0–7 H	D 2–2 A
Twente	L 1–3 A	L 0–2 A
Points	3 of 15 · 0.60 per game	2 of 15 · 0.40 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	PEC Zwolle	ADO Den Haag	Forecast
Scored per game	1.11	1.22
Conceded per game	2.44	2.22
Match goals	3.56	3.44	3.17
Over 1.5	89%	100%
Over 2.5	67%	67%	61%
Over 3.5	56%	56%
Both teams scored	44%	78%	63%
Clean sheets	11%	0%
Failed to score	44%	22%
Games	9	9

	PEC Zwolle	ADO Den Haag	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	1.22
Conceded per game	2.40	2.22
Match goals	3.40	3.44	3.17
Over 1.5	90%	100%
Over 2.5	60%	67%	61%
Over 3.5	50%	56%
Both teams scored	40%	78%	63%
Clean sheets	10%	0%
Failed to score	50%	22%
Games	10	9

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	PEC Zwolle	ADO Den Haag	League
Corners
Corners won	4.33	4.14
Corners conceded	7.22	6.14
Match total	11.55	10.28	10.39
Over 8.5	89% 8/9	57% 4/7
Over 9.5	78% 7/9	43% 3/7
Over 10.5	67% 6/9	43% 3/7
Cards
Cards	1.44	1.67
Opponent cards	1.00	1.44
Match total	2.44	3.11	2.77
Over 3.5	33% 3/9	44% 4/9
Over 4.5	22% 2/9	11% 1/9

	PEC Zwolle	ADO Den Haag	League
Corners
Corners won	4.00	4.25
Corners conceded	7.70	5.63
Match total	11.70	9.88	10.39
Over 8.5	90% 9/10	50% 4/8
Over 9.5	80% 8/10	38% 3/8
Over 10.5	70% 7/10	38% 3/8
Cards
Cards	1.30	1.60
Opponent cards	0.90	1.70
Match total	2.20	3.30	2.77
Over 3.5	30% 3/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.