PSV Eindhoven vs Willem II

Eredivisie Gameweek 11 Sat, Oct 31 · 17:45 Philips Stadion, Eindhoven

PSV Eindhoven 3rd · 19 pts · 9 played WWLWL

VS— Compare

Willem II 18th · 2 pts · 9 played DLLLL

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

PSV Eindhoven are clear favourites.

PSV Eindhoven are the stronger side on L90 Strength (74 vs 10). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Willem II. PSV Eindhoven have 6.2 days of rest, Willem II 7 and have to travel 30 km. Conditions look neutral.

Away travel30 kmRest days6.2 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2

PSV Eindhoven88%

Draw8%

Willem II4%

Expected goals 3.58 – 0.72

PSV Eindhoven87%

Draw10%

Willem II4%

Expected goals 3.14 – 0.57

PSV Eindhoven88%

Draw8%

Willem II4%

Expected goals 3.58 – 0.72

PSV Eindhoven83%

Draw11%

Willem II6%

Expected goals 3.19 – 0.80

PSV Eindhoven87%

Draw9%

Willem II4%

Expected goals 3.38 – 0.70

Over 2.5 80% Both score 50% Likeliest score 3–0

EloLambda forecast, updated 7 hours ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Eindhoven)

10°CClear

Precipitation 20%
Wind 5 km/h
Humidity 88%

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Defence

Streaks

Streak Willem II 4 Losses in a row Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Losses in a row

Team strength

PSV Eindhoven

Willem II

74 L90 StrengthIn forecast 10

71 Current StrengthIn forecast 10

60 AttackIn forecast 10

64 DefenceIn forecast 9

32 Form indexContext 8

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

PSV Eindhoven

Attack+36%

Defense risk−32%

Willem II

Attack−30%

Defense risk+38%

Changes versus each team's league-average baseline. Higher attack and lower defense risk are favorable.

Playing style

PSV Eindhoven

Willem II

3.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00

1.33 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.89

2.43 xGVia Att/Def 1.28

0.91 xG allowedVia Att/Def 2.25

+0.57 Goals minus xGContext -0.28

100% Scored inContext 78%

11% Clean sheetsContext 0%

19.44 ShotsContext 11.67

7.11 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 2.78

37% On target shareContext 24%

13.44 Shots in the boxContext 7.78

71% Box shareContext 68%

15% ConversionContext 9%

2.00 OffsidesContext 2.00

10.89 Shots allowedContext 20.33

4.44 On target allowedVia Att/Def 7.33

3.29 BlocksContext 4.33

3.25 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.44

67% Save rateContext 61%

61% PossessionIn forecast 40%

573 PassesContext 356

508 Accurate passesContext 276

89% Pass accuracyContext 78%

7.01 Team ratingContext 6.47

9.78 FoulsContext 9.78

9.89 Fouls sufferedContext 9.89

1.56 Yellow cardsContext 1.33

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 9 and 9 games

2.60 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00

1.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.60

2.27 xGVia Att/Def 1.28

1.11 xG allowedVia Att/Def 2.25

+0.33 Goals minus xGContext -0.28

90% Scored inContext 80%

10% Clean sheetsContext 10%

17.30 ShotsContext 11.67

6.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 2.78

38% On target shareContext 24%

11.60 Shots in the boxContext 7.78

67% Box shareContext 68%

15% ConversionContext 9%

2.22 OffsidesContext 2.00

11.70 Shots allowedContext 20.33

4.20 On target allowedVia Att/Def 7.33

3.56 BlocksContext 4.33

3.22 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.44

71% Save rateContext 61%

58% PossessionIn forecast 40%

526 PassesContext 356

464 Accurate passesContext 276

88% Pass accuracyContext 78%

6.95 Team ratingContext 6.47

10.50 FoulsContext 9.78

11.00 Fouls sufferedContext 9.89

1.80 Yellow cardsContext 1.30

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

PSV Eindhoven WLWLL

Rest6.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km3,140 km in 14d

Schedule load10%Low

Form 32 · 6 pts vs 8.1 for an average club · -4.7 vs expected

L17 OctA · ADO Den Haag1–22.4 xPts
L13 OctA · RB Leipzig0–11.2 xPts
W9 OctH · Heerenveen2–02.5 xPts
L20 SepA · Twente2–31.8 xPts
W13 SepH · Sparta Rotterdam4–12.7 xPts

Willem II DLLLL

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel30 km117 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 8 · 1 pts vs 7.7 for an average club · -2.5 vs expected

L17 OctA · Sparta Rotterdam2–30.8 xPts
L11 OctA · Utrecht1–30.7 xPts
L19 SepH · Fortuna Sittard0–11.4 xPts
L15 SepA · Ajax1–50.3 xPts
D11 SepA · AZ Alkmaar1–10.3 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	PSV Eindhoven	Willem II
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 10	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6.2Eredivisie 2026-2027, 25 Oct	7Eredivisie 2026-2027, 24 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	30 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	3,140 km	117 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 5	0 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	4.1	6.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

PSV Eindhoven Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs ADO Den Haag (A) 1–2, 17 Oct

32M. Kovář(G)

18F. Kostić 4A. Obispo 2L. Geertruida 8S. Dest

17Mauro Júnior 24K. Sano

35A. Santos 20G. Til 27D. Man

21S. Mijnans

Willem II Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Sparta Rotterdam (A) 2–3, 17 Oct

26M. Delanghe(G)

24N. Tjoe-A-On 23M. Dekker 3F. Stam 5H. ter Avest

52T. Vilhena 18Anass Zarrouk

32Vito van Crooij 19U. van Aalst 7J. Slory

9D. Haen

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

PSV Eindhoven No reported absences

Willem II No reported absences

Total impact vs full squads

PSV Eindhoven+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Willem II+0.0 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

PSV Eindhoven · Home 2.50points per game · 4 home games

W-D-L: 3-1-0
Scored: 3.25
Conceded: 1.00

Willem II · Away 0.20points per game · 5 away games

W-D-L: 0-1-4
Scored: 1.20
Conceded: 3.20

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 6 this season

Opponent	PSV Eindhoven	Willem II
Heerenveen	W 2–0 H	D 2–2 H
Sparta Rotterdam	W 4–1 H	L 2–3 A
Ajax	W 3–1 A	L 1–5 A
Utrecht	W 6–1 A	L 1–3 A
Excelsior	W 2–1 A	L 0–3 H
Fortuna Sittard	D 2–2 H	L 0–1 H
Points	16 of 18 · 2.67 per game	1 of 18 · 0.17 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings

1 PSV Eindhoven wins1 draws0 Willem II wins

Goals per game1.50 – 0.50 Over 2.50% Both scored50% Clean sheets50% · 0%

8 Feb 2025PSV Eindhoven1–1Willem II
28 Sep 2024Willem II0–2PSV Eindhoven

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	PSV Eindhoven	Willem II	Forecast
Scored per game	3.00	1.00
Conceded per game	1.33	2.89
Match goals	4.33	3.89	4.30
Over 1.5	100%	89%
Over 2.5	89%	78%	80%
Over 3.5	67%	67%
Both teams scored	89%	78%	50%
Clean sheets	11%	0%
Failed to score	0%	22%
Games	9	9

	PSV Eindhoven	Willem II	Forecast
Scored per game	2.60	1.00
Conceded per game	1.20	2.89
Match goals	3.80	3.89	4.30
Over 1.5	90%	89%
Over 2.5	70%	78%	80%
Over 3.5	50%	67%
Both teams scored	80%	78%	50%
Clean sheets	10%	0%
Failed to score	10%	22%
Games	10	9

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	PSV Eindhoven	Willem II	League
Corners
Corners won	5.29	3.78
Corners conceded	3.86	6.56
Match total	9.15	10.34	10.39
Over 8.5	57% 4/7	56% 5/9
Over 9.5	57% 4/7	56% 5/9
Over 10.5	43% 3/7	44% 4/9
Cards
Cards	1.67	1.33
Opponent cards	2.00	1.11
Match total	3.67	2.44	2.77
Over 3.5	33% 3/9	22% 2/9
Over 4.5	33% 3/9	11% 1/9

	PSV Eindhoven	Willem II	League
Corners
Corners won	5.44	3.78
Corners conceded	3.89	6.56
Match total	9.33	10.34	10.39
Over 8.5	56% 5/9	56% 5/9
Over 9.5	56% 5/9	56% 5/9
Over 10.5	44% 4/9	44% 4/9
Cards
Cards	1.90	1.30
Opponent cards	2.40	1.40
Match total	4.30	2.70	2.77
Over 3.5	40% 4/10	30% 3/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.