Heerenveen vs NEC Nijmegen

Eredivisie Gameweek 11 Sat, Oct 31 · 17:45 Abe Lenstra Stadion, Heerenveen

Heerenveen 8th · 12 pts · 9 played LDWLW

VS— Compare

NEC Nijmegen 12th · 10 pts · 9 played DLDDD

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Heerenveen are slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Heerenveen. Heerenveen have 6.9 days of rest, NEC Nijmegen 6.2 and have to travel 124 km. Conditions look neutral.

Away travel124 kmRest days6.9 · 6.2Matches / 14d1 · 3

Heerenveen48%

Draw23%

NEC Nijmegen29%

Expected goals 1.90 – 1.45

Heerenveen43%

Draw27%

NEC Nijmegen30%

Expected goals 1.48 – 1.21

Heerenveen48%

Draw23%

NEC Nijmegen29%

Expected goals 1.90 – 1.45

Heerenveen39%

Draw24%

NEC Nijmegen37%

Expected goals 1.69 – 1.62

Heerenveen47%

Draw24%

NEC Nijmegen29%

Expected goals 1.79 – 1.35

Over 2.5 65% Both score 66% Likeliest score 1–1

EloLambda forecast, updated 7 hours ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Heerenveen)

9°CClear

Precipitation 27%
Wind 7 km/h
Humidity 87%

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Defence

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Team strength

Heerenveen

NEC Nijmegen

31 L90 StrengthIn forecast 32

31 Current StrengthIn forecast 32

36 AttackIn forecast 37

40 DefenceIn forecast 33

39 Form indexContext 18

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Heerenveen

Attack−4%

Defense risk+6%

NEC Nijmegen

Attack−10%

Defense risk+4%

Both teams face a less favorable matchup than their league-average baseline.

Playing style

Heerenveen

NEC Nijmegen

1.67 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.67

1.22 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.78

1.28 xGVia Att/Def 2.16

1.55 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.48

+0.39 Goals minus xGContext -0.49

67% Scored inContext 89%

44% Clean sheetsContext 0%

15.11 ShotsContext 15.11

6.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.22

40% On target shareContext 28%

9.56 Shots in the boxContext 9.78

66% Box shareContext 64%

11% ConversionContext 11%

2.20 OffsidesContext 2.57

14.56 Shots allowedContext 11.56

4.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.44

4.44 BlocksContext 3.11

3.14 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.56

73% Save rateContext 58%

53% PossessionIn forecast 60%

493 PassesContext 488

421 Accurate passesContext 401

85% Pass accuracyContext 82%

6.92 Team ratingContext 6.59

8.67 FoulsContext 11.33

10.78 Fouls sufferedContext 12.11

1.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.33

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 9 and 9 games

1.70 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.10

1.40 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.20

1.27 xGVia Att/Def 1.94

1.58 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.39

+0.43 Goals minus xGContext -0.84

70% Scored inContext 70%

40% Clean sheetsContext 0%

14.90 ShotsContext 12.00

5.90 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.80

40% On target shareContext 32%

9.50 Shots in the boxContext 7.60

66% Box shareContext 59%

11% ConversionContext 9%

2.20 OffsidesContext 2.43

15.20 Shots allowedContext 12.70

4.22 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.30

4.70 BlocksContext 2.80

3.13 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.10

69% Save rateContext 59%

54% PossessionIn forecast 52%

498 PassesContext 442

425 Accurate passesContext 358

85% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.88 Team ratingContext 6.44

8.40 FoulsContext 11.70

10.80 Fouls sufferedContext 11.80

1.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.40

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Heerenveen LDWLW

Rest6.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 39 · 7 pts vs 8.2 for an average club · +1.1 vs expected

W16 OctH · Excelsior4–01.9 xPts
L9 OctA · PSV Eindhoven0–20.4 xPts
W19 SepA · Sparta Rotterdam4–01.2 xPts
D13 SepH · Telstar0–01.7 xPts
L6 SepH · AZ Alkmaar2–30.9 xPts

NEC Nijmegen LDDDD

Rest6.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel124 km1,995 km in 14d

Schedule load20%Moderate

Form 18 · 4 pts vs 8.2 for an average club · -2.7 vs expected

D18 OctH · Fortuna Sittard2–21.9 xPts
D15 OctH · Levski Sofia1–11.8 xPts
D10 OctA · Ajax1–10.7 xPts
D20 SepH · GO Ahead Eagles1–11.7 xPts
L17 SepA · Juventus0–50.6 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Heerenveen	NEC Nijmegen
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Moderate · 20
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6.9Eredivisie 2026-2027, 24 Oct	6.2Eredivisie 2026-2027, 25 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	124 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	1,995 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 3	1 / 3 / 5
Next matchdays after this one	7.7	5

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.

Squad & lineups

Heerenveen Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Excelsior (H) 4–0, 16 Oct

1B. Klaverboer(G)

19V. Zagaritis 3M. Willemsen 4S. Kersten 45O. Braude

8N. Courtens 16M. Linday

7M. Rivera 14L. Smans 20J. Trenskow

9D. Vente

NEC Nijmegen Last XI · not confirmed

3-4-2-1 · vs Fortuna Sittard (H) 2–2, 18 Oct

1G. Crettaz(G)

24D. Fonville 22A. Kaplan 21T. Storm

35Jamiro Monteiro 18D. Geiger 6D. Nejašmić 34Kevin Kers

99Clement Bischoff 20N. Lebreton

30B. Linssen

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Heerenveen No reported absences

NEC Nijmegen No reported absences

Total impact vs full squads

Heerenveen+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
NEC Nijmegen+0.0 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Heerenveen · Home 1.40points per game · 5 home games

W-D-L: 2-1-2
Scored: 1.40
Conceded: 1.00

NEC Nijmegen · Away 1.75points per game · 4 away games

W-D-L: 2-1-1
Scored: 2.00
Conceded: 1.50

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 5 this season

Opponent	Heerenveen	NEC Nijmegen
Excelsior	W 4–0 H	D 2–2 H
Telstar	D 0–0 H	L 1–2 H
Willem II	D 2–2 A	W 4–1 A
PEC Zwolle	L 0–2 H	W 3–1 A
Ajax	D 2–2 A	D 1–1 A
Points	6 of 15 · 1.20 per game	8 of 15 · 1.60 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings

2 Heerenveen wins2 draws1 NEC Nijmegen wins

Goals per game1.40 – 1.60 Over 2.560% Both scored60% Clean sheets20% · 20%

22 Mar 2026NEC Nijmegen2–2Heerenveen
21 Sep 2025Heerenveen3–2NEC Nijmegen
27 Apr 2025Heerenveen1–0NEC Nijmegen
19 Oct 2024NEC Nijmegen3–0Heerenveen
7 Oct 2023Heerenveen1–1NEC Nijmegen

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Heerenveen	NEC Nijmegen	Forecast
Scored per game	1.67	1.67
Conceded per game	1.22	1.78
Match goals	2.89	3.44	3.34
Over 1.5	78%	100%
Over 2.5	56%	78%	65%
Over 3.5	56%	56%
Both teams scored	33%	89%	66%
Clean sheets	44%	0%
Failed to score	33%	11%
Games	9	9

	Heerenveen	NEC Nijmegen	Forecast
Scored per game	1.50	1.10
Conceded per game	1.10	2.20
Match goals	2.60	3.30	3.34
Over 1.5	70%	100%
Over 2.5	50%	70%	65%
Over 3.5	50%	50%
Both teams scored	30%	70%	66%
Clean sheets	50%	0%
Failed to score	40%	30%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Heerenveen	NEC Nijmegen	League
Corners
Corners won	5.11	4.88
Corners conceded	4.89	3.75
Match total	10.00	8.63	10.39
Over 8.5	67% 6/9	50% 4/8
Over 9.5	44% 4/9	38% 3/8
Over 10.5	33% 3/9	38% 3/8
Cards
Cards	1.00	1.33
Opponent cards	1.33	1.78
Match total	2.33	3.11	2.77
Over 3.5	11% 1/9	56% 5/9
Over 4.5	0% 0/9	0% 0/9

	Heerenveen	NEC Nijmegen	League
Corners
Corners won	5.20	4.00
Corners conceded	5.20	3.88
Match total	10.40	7.88	10.39
Over 8.5	70% 7/10	38% 3/8
Over 9.5	50% 5/10	25% 2/8
Over 10.5	40% 4/10	25% 2/8
Cards
Cards	1.00	1.50
Opponent cards	1.20	1.40
Match total	2.20	2.90	2.77
Over 3.5	10% 1/10	40% 4/10
Over 4.5	0% 0/10	0% 0/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.