Telstar
Attack−4%
Defense risk−3%
Our take
It looks too close to call.
Utrecht are the stronger side on L90 Strength (34 vs 22). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Utrecht. Telstar have 8.8 days of rest, Utrecht 8 and have to travel 52 km. Conditions look neutral.
Away travel52 kmRest days8.8 · 8Matches / 14d1 · 2
Telstar35%
Draw24%
Utrecht42%
Telstar35%
Draw27%
Utrecht38%
Telstar35%
Draw24%
Utrecht42%
Telstar27%
Draw23%
Utrecht50%
Telstar34%
Draw24%
Utrecht42%
Over 2.5 66%
Both score 67%
Likeliest score 1–1
EloLambda forecast, updated 6 hours ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Velsen-Zuid)
11°CDrizzle
- Precipitation 28%
- Wind 12 km/h
- Humidity 77%
Referee—Not appointed yet
Key insights
Automatic descriptive highlights for Telstar and Utrecht. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.
Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.
xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.
Headlines
-
Trend
Utrecht
89%
Both teams scored
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored -
Alert
Utrecht
2.4
Goals conceded away per match
Last 5 recorded away matches
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Trend
Utrecht
1.8
Goals scored per match
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
-
Insight
Telstar
−0.51
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.65xG against2.16
-
Alert
Telstar
2.0
Goals conceded per match
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
Attack
Defence
-
Alert
Utrecht
2.4
Goals conceded away per match
Last 5 recorded away matches
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Alert
Utrecht
2.9
Goals conceded per match
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Insight
Telstar
−0.51
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.65xG against2.16
-
Alert
Telstar
2.0
Goals conceded per match
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Insight
Utrecht
−0.27
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.38xG against1.65
Streaks
Not enough recorded data for this category yet.
Team strength
TelstarUtrecht
22
L90 StrengthIn forecast
34
22
Current StrengthIn forecast
34
24
AttackIn forecast
32
13
DefenceIn forecast
31
11
Form indexContext
65
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisUtrecht
Attack+22%
Defense risk−11%
Changes versus each team's league-average baseline. Higher attack and lower defense risk are favorable.
Playing style
TelstarUtrecht
1.11
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.78
2.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.89
1.70
xGVia Att/Def
1.31
2.40
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.72
-0.59
Goals minus xGContext
+0.47
56%
Scored inContext
89%
11%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
12.00
ShotsContext
12.89
3.11
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.33
26%
On target shareContext
34%
8.14
Shots in the boxContext
10.25
62%
Box shareContext
69%
9%
ConversionContext
14%
1.86
OffsidesContext
2.00
16.78
Shots allowedContext
18.11
6.67
On target allowedVia Att/Def
7.00
5.25
BlocksContext
4.33
5.13
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.00
71%
Save rateContext
57%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
400
PassesContext
391
323
Accurate passesContext
313
81%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.70
Team ratingContext
6.55
10.44
FoulsContext
16.33
12.89
Fouls sufferedContext
10.67
1.44
Yellow cardsContext
2.11
0.11
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.90
1.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.80
1.65
xGVia Att/Def
1.38
2.16
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.65
-0.45
Goals minus xGContext
+0.52
60%
Scored inContext
90%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
11.50
ShotsContext
13.70
3.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.50
26%
On target shareContext
33%
7.75
Shots in the boxContext
10.67
63%
Box shareContext
68%
10%
ConversionContext
14%
1.75
OffsidesContext
1.83
16.60
Shots allowedContext
17.60
6.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.80
5.33
BlocksContext
4.10
5.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.90
73%
Save rateContext
57%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
394
PassesContext
388
314
Accurate passesContext
312
80%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.72
Team ratingContext
6.60
11.20
FoulsContext
15.80
12.90
Fouls sufferedContext
10.20
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Telstar
LDLDL
Rest8.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km211 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 11 · 2 pts vs 7.8 for an average club · -2.7 vs expected
Utrecht
DWLWW
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel52 km244 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 65 · 10 pts vs 8.3 for an average club · +4.2 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Telstar |
Utrecht |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8.8Eredivisie 2026-2027, 23 Oct | 8Eredivisie 2026-2027, 24 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 52 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 211 km | 244 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.1 | 7.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Telstar
Last XI · not confirmed
1R. Koeman(G)
43M. Peersman
4A. Soualhia
16S. Valk
3G. Alders
17N. Rossen
10T. Owusu
23N. Shenkman
27P. Brouwer
11N. Þórisson
42A. Martha
Utrecht
Last XI · not confirmed
22S. Padt(G)
5N. Panagiotou
3M. Didden
2S. Horemans
92A. Zagré
38O. Agougil
8J. van Overeem
23N. Vesterlund
11Ángel Alarcón
20D. de Wit
10Y. Cathline
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Telstar
No reported absences
Utrecht
No reported absences
Total impact vs full squads
- Telstar+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Utrecht+0.0 pp
From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.
Home / Away this season
Telstar · Home
0.40points per game · 5 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-2-3
- Scored
- 1.60
- Conceded
- 3.00
Utrecht · Away
1.40points per game · 5 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-2
- Scored
- 1.60
- Conceded
- 2.40
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 4 this season
| Opponent | Telstar | Utrecht |
|---|---|---|
| Feyenoord | L 3–4 H | L 0–5 A |
| AZ Alkmaar | L 0–1 A | L 1–4 H |
| Twente | L 0–1 A | W 2–1 A |
| Sparta Rotterdam | L 1–3 H | D 3–3 A |
| Points | 0 of 12 · 0.00 per game | 4 of 12 · 1.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
0 Telstar wins1 draws1 Utrecht wins
Goals per game1.00 – 2.50
Over 2.550%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 11 Apr 2026Utrecht4–1Telstar
- 23 Nov 2025Telstar1–1Utrecht
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Telstar | Utrecht | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.11 | 1.78 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 2.89 | |
| Match goals | 3.11 | 4.67 | 3.40 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 100% | 66% |
| Over 3.5 | 56% | 67% | |
| Both teams scored | 56% | 89% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 11% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 44% | 11% | |
| Games | 9 | 9 |
| Telstar | Utrecht | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.20 | 1.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.90 | 2.60 | |
| Match goals | 3.10 | 4.40 | 3.40 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 90% | 66% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 60% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 80% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Telstar | Utrecht | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.13 | 4.25 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.75 | 5.25 | |
| Match total | 10.88 | 9.50 | 10.39 |
| Over 8.5 | 63% 5/8 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 63% 5/8 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 63% 5/8 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.56 | 2.11 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.78 | 0.89 | |
| Match total | 3.34 | 3.00 | 2.77 |
| Over 3.5 | 44% 4/9 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 4.5 | 22% 2/9 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Telstar | Utrecht | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.13 | 4.67 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.75 | 5.33 | |
| Match total | 10.88 | 10.00 | 10.39 |
| Over 8.5 | 63% 5/8 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 63% 5/8 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 63% 5/8 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.60 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 0.90 | |
| Match total | 3.40 | 2.80 | 2.77 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Telstar9 games · scored 10 · conceded 18
2
2
0-15
2
4
16-30
2
2
31-45
6
46-60
2
1
61-75
2
3
76-90
Utrecht9 games · scored 16 · conceded 26
1
4
0-15
1
2
16-30
1
4
31-45
3
7
46-60
4
2
61-75
6
7
76-90
Telstar10 games · scored 12 · conceded 19
2
3
0-15
2
4
16-30
3
2
31-45
6
46-60
2
1
61-75
3
3
76-90
Utrecht10 games · scored 19 · conceded 28
1
4
0-15
1
2
16-30
1
4
31-45
6
8
46-60
4
2
61-75
6
8
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
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