Lille
Attack−12%
Defense risk+24%
Our take
It looks too close to call.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Lens. Lille have 5.3 days of rest, Lens 6.1 and have to travel 28 km. Conditions look neutral.
Away travel28 kmRest days5.3 · 6.1Matches / 14d3 · 3
Lille41%
Draw25%
Lens34%
Lille42%
Draw27%
Lens31%
Lille41%
Draw25%
Lens34%
Lille33%
Draw25%
Lens42%
Lille41%
Draw25%
Lens34%
Over 2.5 58%
Both score 61%
Likeliest score 1–1
EloLambda forecast, updated 2 hours ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Lille)
9°CClear
- Precipitation 16%
- Wind 9 km/h
- Humidity 89%
Referee—Not appointed yet
Key insights
Automatic descriptive highlights for Lille and Lens. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.
Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.
xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.
Headlines
-
Insight
Lens
+0.80
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for2.25xG against1.45
-
Trend
Lens
78%
Both teams scored
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored -
Insight
Lille
4
Clean sheets
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet -
Alert
Lens
1.8
Goals conceded away per match
Last 5 recorded away matches
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
Attack
-
Insight
Lens
+0.80
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for2.25xG against1.45
-
Trend
Lens
1.9
Goals scored per match
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
-
Trend
Lens
78%
Both teams scored
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored
Defence
-
Insight
Lille
4
Clean sheets
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet -
Alert
Lens
1.8
Goals conceded away per match
Last 5 recorded away matches
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Alert
Lens
1.7
Goals conceded per match
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
Streaks
Not enough recorded data for this category yet.
Team strength
LilleLens
56
L90 StrengthIn forecast
58
54
Current StrengthIn forecast
56
42
AttackIn forecast
63
60
DefenceIn forecast
53
39
Form indexContext
51
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisLens
Attack−17%
Defense risk+3%
Both teams face a less favorable matchup than their league-average baseline.
Playing style
LilleLens
1.43
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
0.71
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.57
1.42
xGVia Att/Def
2.57
1.40
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.33
+0.01
Goals minus xGContext
-0.57
100%
Scored inContext
86%
57%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
12.00
ShotsContext
14.71
5.57
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.00
46%
On target shareContext
41%
8.14
Shots in the boxContext
10.57
67%
Box shareContext
74%
12%
ConversionContext
14%
3.00
OffsidesContext
1.71
15.00
Shots allowedContext
11.29
3.57
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.86
3.50
BlocksContext
2.67
2.86
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.43
80%
Save rateContext
71%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
480
PassesContext
487
417
Accurate passesContext
418
87%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.99
Team ratingContext
6.86
11.57
FoulsContext
11.57
14.43
Fouls sufferedContext
13.14
1.29
Yellow cardsContext
1.86
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.14
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.10
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.24
xGVia Att/Def
2.25
1.36
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.45
-0.04
Goals minus xGContext
-0.15
80%
Scored inContext
80%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
10.50
ShotsContext
16.40
4.89
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.00
42%
On target shareContext
37%
7.00
Shots in the boxContext
10.90
63%
Box shareContext
70%
11%
ConversionContext
13%
3.11
OffsidesContext
1.56
14.80
Shots allowedContext
12.30
4.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.80
4.00
BlocksContext
3.44
2.90
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.40
69%
Save rateContext
71%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
480
PassesContext
474
417
Accurate passesContext
405
87%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.86
Team ratingContext
6.86
10.90
FoulsContext
10.80
14.30
Fouls sufferedContext
12.20
1.40
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Lille
WLWLD
Rest5.3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel8 km1,659 km in 14d
Schedule load20%Moderate
Form 39 · 7 pts vs 8.2 for an average club · -1.6 vs expected
Lens
DLWLW
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel28 km689 km in 14d
Schedule load15%Low
Form 51 · 7 pts vs 6.9 for an average club · -1.3 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Lille |
Lens |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Moderate · 20 | Low · 15 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.3Ligue 1 2026-2027, 25 Oct | 6.1Ligue 1 2026-2027, 24 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 8 km | 28 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,659 km | 689 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 3 / 5 | 1 / 3 / 5 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4 | 5 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Lille
Last XI · not confirmed
12O. Gill(G)
15R. Perraud
23T. Nianzou
3N. Ngoy
38Maxima Goffi
17N. Mukau
21B. André
7D. Bakwa
10H. Haraldsson
8E. Mbappé
9O. Giroud
Lens
Last XI · not confirmed
40R. Risser(G)
20J. Todibo
25P. Ganiou
32Kyllian Antonio
22M. Skóraś
5A. Bulatović
8Y. Titraoui
2R. Aguilar
7F. Sotoca
10F. Thauvin
11O. Édouard
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Lille
No reported absences
Lens
No reported absences
Total impact vs full squads
- Lille+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Lens+0.0 pp
From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.
Home / Away this season
Lille · Home
2.00points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-2-0
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 0.75
Lens · Away
1.00points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-2
- Scored
- 1.75
- Conceded
- 1.75
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | Lille | Lens |
|---|---|---|
| Estac Troyes | W 2–0 H | W 3–1 A |
| Points | 3 of 3 · 3.00 per game | 3 of 3 · 3.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings
5 Lille wins2 draws3 Lens wins
Goals per game1.20 – 0.90
Over 2.540%
Both scored40%
Clean sheets40% · 20%
- 4 Apr 2026Lille3–0Lens
- 20 Sep 2025Lens3–0Lille
- 30 Mar 2025Lille1–0Lens
- 26 Oct 2024Lens0–2Lille
- 29 Mar 2024Lille2–1Lens
- 8 Oct 2023Lens1–1Lille
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Lille | Lens | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.43 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.71 | 1.57 | |
| Match goals | 2.14 | 3.57 | 3.03 |
| Over 1.5 | 71% | 86% | |
| Over 2.5 | 29% | 86% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 14% | 43% | |
| Both teams scored | 43% | 86% | 61% |
| Clean sheets | 57% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 14% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| Lille | Lens | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.20 | 2.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 3.60 | 3.03 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 80% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 70% | 61% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Lille | Lens | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.83 | 6.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.83 | 4.17 | |
| Match total | 8.66 | 10.50 | 9.63 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 3/6 | 100% 6/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 2/6 | 83% 5/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 17% 1/6 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.29 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.71 | 1.57 | |
| Match total | 3.00 | 3.57 | 3.47 |
| Over 3.5 | 43% 3/7 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Over 4.5 | 14% 1/7 | 14% 1/7 | |
| Lille | Lens | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 6.78 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.50 | 5.89 | |
| Match total | 8.50 | 12.67 | 9.63 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 4/8 | 100% 9/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 38% 3/8 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 13% 1/8 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 2.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 1.30 | |
| Match total | 3.40 | 3.40 | 3.47 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Lille7 games · scored 10 · conceded 5
2
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
1
31-45
46-60
2
1
61-75
3
2
76-90
Lens7 games · scored 14 · conceded 11
2
0-15
1
16-30
4
3
31-45
5
2
46-60
1
2
61-75
2
3
76-90
Lille10 games · scored 12 · conceded 13
3
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
2
2
31-45
2
46-60
2
4
61-75
3
3
76-90
Lens10 games · scored 21 · conceded 15
2
0-15
1
2
16-30
6
3
31-45
6
3
46-60
2
3
61-75
4
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
