Bournemouth vs AC Milan

UEFA Europa League Matchday 3 Thu, Oct 22 · 20:00 Vitality Stadium, Bournemouth, Dorset

Bournemouth 5th · 6 pts · 2 played WW

VS— Compare

AC Milan 16th · 3 pts · 2 played LW

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Bournemouth are slight favourites.

Bournemouth are the stronger side on L90 Strength (77 vs 66). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Bournemouth. Bournemouth have 4.3 days of rest, AC Milan 4.1 and have to travel 1,007 km. Weather to note: heavy rain, strong wind.

Away travel1,007 kmRest days4.3 · 4.1Matches / 14d3 · 3

Bournemouth57%

Draw21%

AC Milan21%

Expected goals 2.18 – 1.28

Bournemouth51%

Draw25%

AC Milan23%

Expected goals 1.69 – 1.06

Bournemouth57%

Draw21%

AC Milan21%

Expected goals 2.18 – 1.28

Bournemouth49%

Draw23%

AC Milan28%

Expected goals 1.94 – 1.44

Bournemouth57%

Draw22%

AC Milan21%

Expected goals 2.08 – 1.21

Over 2.5 67% Both score 65% Likeliest score 2–1

EloLambda forecast, updated 2 hours ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Bournemouth, Dorset)

13°CRain

Precipitation 92%
Wind 36 km/h
Humidity 88%

Heavy rain Strong wind

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Defence

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Team strength

Bournemouth

AC Milan

77 L90 StrengthIn forecast 66

77 Current StrengthIn forecast 66

83 AttackIn forecast 72

82 DefenceIn forecast 69

74 Form indexContext 74

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Bournemouth

Attack+6%

Defense risk+2%

AC Milan

Attack−32%

Defense risk+52%

Changes versus each team's league-average baseline. Higher attack and lower defense risk are favorable.

Playing style

Bournemouth

AC Milan

2.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.00

0.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00

— xGVia Att/Def 2.51

— xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.76

— Goals minus xGContext -0.51

100% Scored inContext 50%

50% Clean sheetsContext 50%

17.50 ShotsContext 15.00

5.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 7.00

31% On target shareContext 47%

11.50 Shots in the boxContext 10.50

68% Box shareContext 70%

14% ConversionContext 13%

2.50 OffsidesContext —

10.50 Shots allowedContext 12.50

3.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.00

— BlocksContext 4.00

2.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.00

83% Save rateContext 67%

54% PossessionIn forecast 54%

415 PassesContext 511

332 Accurate passesContext 464

80% Pass accuracyContext 91%

7.03 Team ratingContext 6.90

12.00 FoulsContext 13.00

16.00 Fouls sufferedContext 12.50

3.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.00

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.50

This league season, per match · 2 and 2 games

1.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.90

1.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.10

1.82 xGVia Att/Def 1.97

1.15 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.27

-0.32 Goals minus xGContext -0.07

90% Scored inContext 90%

20% Clean sheetsContext 30%

15.80 ShotsContext 13.20

5.10 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.00

32% On target shareContext 38%

9.60 Shots in the boxContext 9.00

62% Box shareContext 69%

10% ConversionContext 14%

2.00 OffsidesContext 1.86

10.30 Shots allowedContext 11.70

4.11 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.10

3.29 BlocksContext 3.44

2.86 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.44

61% Save rateContext 78%

53% PossessionIn forecast 57%

434 PassesContext 556

353 Accurate passesContext 498

81% Pass accuracyContext 90%

6.86 Team ratingContext 6.98

12.20 FoulsContext 9.90

12.70 Fouls sufferedContext 11.80

2.80 Yellow cardsContext 1.70

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Bournemouth WLLWW

Rest4.3 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel0 km301 km in 14d

Schedule load15%Low

Form 74 · 9 pts vs 6.1 for an average club · +0.1 vs expected

W18 OctH · Sunderland2–01.8 xPts
W15 OctH · Sturm Graz3–02.3 xPts
L10 OctA · Chelsea1–51.3 xPts
L20 SepH · Liverpool0–11.6 xPts
W17 SepA · Real Sociedad2–11.8 xPts

AC Milan LWDWW

Rest4.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel1,007 km1,057 km in 14d

Schedule load27%Moderate

Form 74 · 10 pts vs 7.1 for an average club · +1.5 vs expected

W18 OctH · Atalanta3–22.1 xPts
W15 OctA · Red Bull Salzburg4–01.4 xPts
D11 OctA · Sassuolo1–11.6 xPts
W20 SepH · Lecce3–02.3 xPts
L16 SepH · Benfica0–21.0 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Bournemouth	AC Milan
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 15	Moderate · 27
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	4.3Premier League 2026-2027, 18 Oct	4.1Serie A 2026-2027, 18 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	1,007 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	301 km	1,057 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	2 / 3 / 3	1 / 3 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	2.8	3

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Bournemouth Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Sunderland (H) 2–0, 18 Oct

1Đ. Petrović(G)

3A. Truffert 14António Silva 5J. Hill 15A. Smith

10R. Christie 12T. Adams

16M. Tavernier 4L. Cook 37Rayan

9Evanilson

AC Milan Last XI · not confirmed

3-4-3 · vs Atalanta (H) 3–2, 18 Oct

16M. Maignan(G)

31S. Pavlović 5K. De Winter 34Mario Gila

22Diego Moreira 14L. Modrić 80Y. Musah 21S. Chukwueze

11C. Pulišić 9Gonçalo Ramos 12A. Rabiot

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Bournemouth No reported absences

AC Milan No reported absences

Total impact vs full squads

Bournemouth+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
AC Milan+0.0 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Bournemouth · Home 3.00points per game · 1 home games

W-D-L: 1-0-0
Scored: 3.00
Conceded: 0.00

AC Milan · Away 3.00points per game · 1 away games

W-D-L: 1-0-0
Scored: 4.00
Conceded: 0.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	Bournemouth	AC Milan	Forecast
Scored per game	2.50	2.00
Conceded per game	0.50	1.00
Match goals	3.00	3.00	3.46
Over 1.5	100%	100%
Over 2.5	100%	50%	67%
Over 3.5	0%	50%
Both teams scored	50%	0%	65%
Clean sheets	50%	50%
Failed to score	0%	50%
Games	2	2

	Bournemouth	AC Milan	Forecast
Scored per game	1.50	1.90
Conceded per game	1.50	1.10
Match goals	3.00	3.00	3.46
Over 1.5	90%	100%
Over 2.5	60%	60%	67%
Over 3.5	30%	30%
Both teams scored	70%	60%	65%
Clean sheets	20%	30%
Failed to score	10%	10%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Bournemouth	AC Milan	League
Corners
Corners won	5.00	5.50
Corners conceded	6.50	2.00
Match total	11.50	7.50	9.76
Over 8.5	100% 2/2	50% 1/2
Over 9.5	100% 2/2	50% 1/2
Over 10.5	50% 1/2	0% 0/2
Cards
Cards	3.00	1.50
Opponent cards	3.00	3.00
Match total	6.00	4.50	3.76
Over 3.5	100% 2/2	50% 1/2
Over 4.5	100% 2/2	50% 1/2

	Bournemouth	AC Milan	League
Corners
Corners won	4.60	3.70
Corners conceded	4.60	3.10
Match total	9.20	6.80	9.76
Over 8.5	50% 5/10	20% 2/10
Over 9.5	40% 4/10	20% 2/10
Over 10.5	30% 3/10	0% 0/10
Cards
Cards	2.80	1.80
Opponent cards	1.80	1.80
Match total	4.60	3.60	3.76
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	60% 6/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.