RB Leipzig vs FC Augsburg

Bundesliga Gameweek 9 Sat, Nov 7 · 14:30 Leipzig Stadium, Leipzig

RB Leipzig 7th · 9 pts · 6 played LWLWL

VS— Compare

FC Augsburg 10th · 8 pts · 6 played WDLDL

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

RB Leipzig are clear favourites.

RB Leipzig are the stronger side on L90 Strength (68 vs 50). RB Leipzig have 2.8 days of rest, FC Augsburg 7 and have to travel 346 km.

Away travel346 kmRest days2.8 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 1

RB Leipzig65%

Draw17%

FC Augsburg19%

Expected goals 2.99 – 1.63

RB Leipzig55%

Draw24%

FC Augsburg20%

Expected goals 1.79 – 1.00

RB Leipzig65%

Draw17%

FC Augsburg19%

Expected goals 2.99 – 1.63

RB Leipzig56%

Draw19%

FC Augsburg26%

Expected goals 2.67 – 1.83

RB Leipzig63%

Draw17%

FC Augsburg19%

Expected goals 2.81 – 1.57

Over 2.5 84% Both score 77% Likeliest score 2–1

EloLambda forecast, updated 8 hours ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Leipzig)

Forecast from 23 Oct

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Defence

Streaks

Streak FC Augsburg 6 Scoring in a row Last 6 recorded matches · all competitions Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Scoring in a row

Team strength

RB Leipzig

FC Augsburg

68 L90 StrengthIn forecast 50

67 Current StrengthIn forecast 50

76 AttackIn forecast 72

53 DefenceIn forecast 23

78 Form indexContext 46

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

RB Leipzig

Attack+25%

Defense risk+6%

FC Augsburg

Attack−4%

Defense risk+19%

Changes versus each team's league-average baseline. Higher attack and lower defense risk are favorable.

Playing style

RB Leipzig

FC Augsburg

2.67 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.67

1.83 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.00

2.13 xGVia Att/Def 2.15

1.76 xG allowedVia Att/Def 2.95

+0.54 Goals minus xGContext +0.52

83% Scored inContext 100%

50% Clean sheetsContext 17%

17.67 ShotsContext 15.67

6.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 7.00

37% On target shareContext 45%

12.67 Shots in the boxContext 11.67

69% Box shareContext 72%

15% ConversionContext 17%

1.25 OffsidesContext 1.75

17.00 Shots allowedContext 21.83

7.83 On target allowedVia Att/Def 7.83

4.00 BlocksContext 6.17

6.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 5.50

77% Save rateContext 70%

53% PossessionIn forecast 42%

508 PassesContext 372

441 Accurate passesContext 288

87% Pass accuracyContext 77%

7.11 Team ratingContext 7.01

9.83 FoulsContext 9.83

13.50 Fouls sufferedContext 10.00

1.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.83

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 6 and 6 games

2.10 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.30

2.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.90

1.92 xGVia Att/Def 2.02

1.57 xG allowedVia Att/Def 2.25

+0.18 Goals minus xGContext +0.28

90% Scored inContext 90%

40% Clean sheetsContext 10%

16.40 ShotsContext 15.10

5.90 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.30

36% On target shareContext 42%

11.60 Shots in the boxContext 11.10

69% Box shareContext 72%

13% ConversionContext 15%

1.29 OffsidesContext 1.88

14.20 Shots allowedContext 19.20

6.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.80

3.00 BlocksContext 5.50

4.50 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.80

69% Save rateContext 71%

54% PossessionIn forecast 41%

508 PassesContext 356

443 Accurate passesContext 274

87% Pass accuracyContext 77%

6.97 Team ratingContext 6.95

9.30 FoulsContext 9.20

12.30 Fouls sufferedContext 9.70

1.30 Yellow cardsContext 1.60

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

RB Leipzig WLWWL

Rest2.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km732 km in 14d

Schedule load8%Low

Form 78 · 9 pts vs 5.5 for an average club · +1.7 vs expected

L17 OctA · Bayern München1–60.5 xPts
W13 OctH · PSV Eindhoven1–01.6 xPts
W10 OctH · Eintracht Frankfurt6–02.0 xPts
L20 SepA · Bayer Leverkusen0–21.1 xPts
W13 SepH · Hamburger SV5–02.2 xPts

FC Augsburg WDLDL

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel346 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

Form 46 · 5 pts vs 5.4 for an average club · -0.9 vs expected

L17 OctA · SV Elversberg3–41.4 xPts
D10 OctH · Bayern München2–20.5 xPts
L19 SepA · Werder Bremen2–31.5 xPts
D12 SepH · Bayer Leverkusen2–21.3 xPts
W6 SepA · Eintracht Frankfurt4–11.3 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	RB Leipzig	FC Augsburg
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 8	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	2.8UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - League phase, 4 Nov	7Bundesliga 2026-2027, 31 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	346 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	732 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	2 / 2 / 7	1 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	14	15

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

RB Leipzig Last XI · not confirmed

4-5-1 · vs Bayern München (A) 1–6, 17 Oct

26M. Vandevoordt(G)

22D. Raum 23C. Lukeba 4V. Orbán 16L. Klostermann

7A. Nusa 6E. Banzuzi 21N. El Aynaoui 20R. Reitz 10B. Gruda

28C. Nkunku

FC Augsburg Last XI · not confirmed

3-4-2-1 · vs SV Elversberg (A) 3–4, 17 Oct

1F. Dahmen(G)

2C. Brackelmann 5C. Matsima 35A. Bah

16Hennes Behrens 32F. Rieder 4H. Massengo 27M. Wolf

21A. Ibrahimović 19Robin Fellhauer

9Rodrigo Ribeiro

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

RB Leipzig No reported absences

FC Augsburg No reported absences

Total impact vs full squads

RB Leipzig+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
FC Augsburg+0.0 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

RB Leipzig · Home 3.00points per game · 3 home games

W-D-L: 3-0-0
Scored: 4.67
Conceded: 0.00

FC Augsburg · Away 1.00points per game · 3 away games

W-D-L: 1-0-2
Scored: 3.00
Conceded: 2.67

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 4 this season

Opponent	RB Leipzig	FC Augsburg
Bayern München	L 1–6 A	D 2–2 H
Eintracht Frankfurt	W 6–0 H	W 4–1 A
Bayer Leverkusen	L 0–2 A	D 2–2 H
Werder Bremen	L 1–3 A	L 2–3 A
Points	3 of 12 · 0.75 per game	5 of 12 · 1.25 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings

6 RB Leipzig wins4 draws0 FC Augsburg wins

Goals per game2.80 – 0.90 Over 2.580% Both scored50% Clean sheets50% · 10%

7 Mar 2026RB Leipzig2–1FC Augsburg
25 Oct 2025FC Augsburg0–6RB Leipzig
14 Feb 2025FC Augsburg0–0RB Leipzig
28 Sep 2024RB Leipzig4–0FC Augsburg
10 Feb 2024FC Augsburg2–2RB Leipzig
16 Sep 2023RB Leipzig3–0FC Augsburg

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	RB Leipzig	FC Augsburg	Forecast
Scored per game	2.67	2.67
Conceded per game	1.83	2.00
Match goals	4.50	4.67	4.62
Over 1.5	100%	100%
Over 2.5	83%	100%	84%
Over 3.5	67%	83%
Both teams scored	33%	83%	77%
Clean sheets	50%	17%
Failed to score	17%	0%
Games	6	6

	RB Leipzig	FC Augsburg	Forecast
Scored per game	2.10	2.30
Conceded per game	2.00	1.90
Match goals	4.10	4.20	4.62
Over 1.5	90%	100%
Over 2.5	80%	90%	84%
Over 3.5	60%	80%
Both teams scored	50%	80%	77%
Clean sheets	40%	10%
Failed to score	10%	10%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	RB Leipzig	FC Augsburg	League
Corners
Corners won	5.50	6.00
Corners conceded	6.83	6.83
Match total	12.33	12.83	10.72
Over 8.5	100% 6/6	83% 5/6
Over 9.5	67% 4/6	83% 5/6
Over 10.5	67% 4/6	83% 5/6
Cards
Cards	1.00	1.83
Opponent cards	1.50	1.50
Match total	2.50	3.33	3.51
Over 3.5	33% 2/6	33% 2/6
Over 4.5	17% 1/6	17% 1/6

	RB Leipzig	FC Augsburg	League
Corners
Corners won	4.80	5.80
Corners conceded	5.70	6.10
Match total	10.50	11.90	10.72
Over 8.5	70% 7/10	80% 8/10
Over 9.5	50% 5/10	80% 8/10
Over 10.5	50% 5/10	70% 7/10
Cards
Cards	1.30	1.60
Opponent cards	1.30	1.70
Match total	2.60	3.30	3.51
Over 3.5	30% 3/10	40% 4/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	10% 1/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.