VfB Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen

Bundesliga Gameweek 9 Sat, Nov 7 · 17:30 Stuttgart Arena, Stuttgart

VfB Stuttgart 13th · 6 pts · 6 played WLLWL

VS— Compare

Werder Bremen 8th · 9 pts · 6 played WDWDD

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

VfB Stuttgart are clear favourites.

VfB Stuttgart are the stronger side on L90 Strength (68 vs 43). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Werder Bremen. VfB Stuttgart have 4 days of rest, Werder Bremen 7.1 and have to travel 478 km.

Away travel478 kmRest days4 · 7.1Matches / 14d2 · 1

VfB Stuttgart62%

Draw19%

Werder Bremen19%

Expected goals 2.45 – 1.31

VfB Stuttgart59%

Draw23%

Werder Bremen18%

Expected goals 1.91 – 0.94

VfB Stuttgart62%

Draw19%

Werder Bremen19%

Expected goals 2.45 – 1.31

VfB Stuttgart53%

Draw21%

Werder Bremen25%

Expected goals 2.18 – 1.47

VfB Stuttgart60%

Draw21%

Werder Bremen19%

Expected goals 2.22 – 1.21

Over 2.5 72% Both score 67% Likeliest score 2–1

EloLambda forecast, updated 2 days ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Stuttgart)

Forecast from 23 Oct

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Defence

Streaks

Team strength

VfB Stuttgart

Werder Bremen

68 L90 StrengthIn forecast 43

67 Current StrengthIn forecast 43

70 AttackIn forecast 56

58 DefenceIn forecast 45

46 Form indexContext 71

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

VfB Stuttgart

Attack+8%

Defense risk−7%

Werder Bremen

Attack−9%

Defense risk+16%

Changes versus each team's league-average baseline. Higher attack and lower defense risk are favorable.

Playing style

VfB Stuttgart

Werder Bremen

1.33 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.00

1.67 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.00

1.91 xGVia Att/Def 1.58

2.38 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.68

-0.58 Goals minus xGContext +0.42

67% Scored inContext 100%

17% Clean sheetsContext 0%

17.00 ShotsContext 14.00

5.83 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.83

34% On target shareContext 49%

12.17 Shots in the boxContext 9.67

72% Box shareContext 66%

8% ConversionContext 14%

1.60 OffsidesContext 2.17

18.17 Shots allowedContext 15.33

5.33 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.50

5.00 BlocksContext 4.50

3.33 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.33

63% Save rateContext 61%

55% PossessionIn forecast 47%

506 PassesContext 476

422 Accurate passesContext 400

83% Pass accuracyContext 84%

7.02 Team ratingContext 6.96

9.83 FoulsContext 12.00

11.17 Fouls sufferedContext 11.17

1.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.17

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 6 and 6 games

1.90 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.40

1.40 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.90

1.91 xGVia Att/Def 1.31

2.00 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.81

-0.01 Goals minus xGContext +0.09

80% Scored inContext 80%

20% Clean sheetsContext 0%

16.80 ShotsContext 12.70

6.20 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.30

37% On target shareContext 42%

11.80 Shots in the boxContext 8.44

70% Box shareContext 62%

11% ConversionContext 11%

2.00 OffsidesContext 2.44

15.50 Shots allowedContext 15.70

4.80 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.60

5.22 BlocksContext 4.40

3.10 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.70

65% Save rateContext 66%

55% PossessionIn forecast 46%

502 PassesContext 458

422 Accurate passesContext 380

84% Pass accuracyContext 83%

7.07 Team ratingContext 6.93

11.10 FoulsContext 10.30

11.20 Fouls sufferedContext 8.80

1.40 Yellow cardsContext 1.10

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

VfB Stuttgart LLWWL

Rest4 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km4,137 km in 14d

Schedule load10%Low

Form 46 · 6 pts vs 6.4 for an average club · -2.0 vs expected

L17 OctA · Hamburger SV0–11.8 xPts
W14 OctA · Slovan Bratislava3–02.1 xPts
W10 OctA · SC Paderborn 072–01.6 xPts
L19 SepH · Borussia Dortmund0–11.2 xPts
L12 SepA · 1899 Hoffenheim1–21.4 xPts

Werder Bremen WDWDD

Rest7.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel478 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

Form 71 · 9 pts vs 6.6 for an average club · +3.6 vs expected

D17 OctH · SC Paderborn 072–21.7 xPts
D9 OctA · Borussia Dortmund2–20.5 xPts
W19 SepH · FC Augsburg3–21.2 xPts
D12 SepA · 1.FC Köln1–11.1 xPts
W5 SepH · RB Leipzig3–10.8 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	VfB Stuttgart	Werder Bremen
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 10	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	4UEFA Champions League 2026-2027 - League phase, 3 Nov	7.1Bundesliga 2026-2027, 31 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	478 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	4,137 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 6	0 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	14	15

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

VfB Stuttgart Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Hamburger SV (A) 0–1, 17 Oct

41D. Seimen(G)

3R. Hendriks 24J. Chabot 29Finn Jeltsch 4J. Vagnoman

6A. Stiller 16A. Karazor

18J. Leweling 26D. Undav 11B. El Khannouss

9E. Demirović

Werder Bremen Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs SC Paderborn 07 (H) 2–2, 17 Oct

1K. Hein(G)

2O. Deman 32M. Friedl 5A. Pieper 13Arthur

44Y. Regeer 15L. Reis

17M. Grüll 20Chuky 18E. Dinkçi

10N. Füllkrug

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

VfB Stuttgart No reported absences

Werder Bremen No reported absences

Total impact vs full squads

VfB Stuttgart+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Werder Bremen+0.0 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

VfB Stuttgart · Home 1.50points per game · 2 home games

W-D-L: 1-0-1
Scored: 2.00
Conceded: 1.00

Werder Bremen · Away 0.67points per game · 3 away games

W-D-L: 0-2-1
Scored: 1.33
Conceded: 2.33

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 3 this season

Opponent	VfB Stuttgart	Werder Bremen
SC Paderborn 07	W 2–0 A	D 2–2 H
Borussia Dortmund	L 0–1 H	D 2–2 A
1.FC Köln	W 4–1 H	D 1–1 A
Points	6 of 9 · 2.00 per game	3 of 9 · 1.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

2 VfB Stuttgart wins3 draws3 Werder Bremen wins

Goals per game1.63 – 1.38 Over 2.563% Both scored63% Clean sheets25% · 13%

26 Apr 2026VfB Stuttgart1–1Werder Bremen
14 Dec 2025Werder Bremen0–4VfB Stuttgart
13 Apr 2025VfB Stuttgart1–2Werder Bremen
30 Nov 2024Werder Bremen2–2VfB Stuttgart
21 Apr 2024Werder Bremen2–1VfB Stuttgart
2 Dec 2023VfB Stuttgart2–0Werder Bremen

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	VfB Stuttgart	Werder Bremen	Forecast
Scored per game	1.33	2.00
Conceded per game	1.67	2.00
Match goals	3.00	4.00	3.75
Over 1.5	67%	100%
Over 2.5	50%	83%	72%
Over 3.5	33%	83%
Both teams scored	50%	100%	67%
Clean sheets	17%	0%
Failed to score	33%	0%
Games	6	6

	VfB Stuttgart	Werder Bremen	Forecast
Scored per game	1.90	1.40
Conceded per game	1.40	1.90
Match goals	3.30	3.30	3.75
Over 1.5	80%	90%
Over 2.5	70%	60%	72%
Over 3.5	50%	60%
Both teams scored	60%	80%	67%
Clean sheets	20%	0%
Failed to score	20%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	VfB Stuttgart	Werder Bremen	League
Corners
Corners won	6.67	3.67
Corners conceded	6.00	5.83
Match total	12.67	9.50	10.72
Over 8.5	83% 5/6	67% 4/6
Over 9.5	83% 5/6	50% 3/6
Over 10.5	83% 5/6	50% 3/6
Cards
Cards	1.00	1.17
Opponent cards	2.33	1.33
Match total	3.33	2.50	3.51
Over 3.5	50% 3/6	17% 1/6
Over 4.5	17% 1/6	0% 0/6

	VfB Stuttgart	Werder Bremen	League
Corners
Corners won	6.30	3.90
Corners conceded	5.40	6.40
Match total	11.70	10.30	10.72
Over 8.5	90% 9/10	80% 8/10
Over 9.5	70% 7/10	60% 6/10
Over 10.5	70% 7/10	50% 5/10
Cards
Cards	1.40	1.20
Opponent cards	2.10	1.00
Match total	3.50	2.20	3.51
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	20% 2/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	0% 0/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.