Bundesliga Gameweek 9 Sat, Nov 7 · 14:30 Home Deluxe Arena, Paderborn
SC Paderborn 07 16th · 5 pts · 6 played
VS— Compare
Eintracht Frankfurt 11th · 8 pts · 6 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

It looks too close to call.

Eintracht Frankfurt are the stronger side on L90 Strength (48 vs 38). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Eintracht Frankfurt. SC Paderborn 07 have 7 days of rest, Eintracht Frankfurt 5.9 and have to travel 178 km.

Away travel178 kmRest days7 · 5.9Matches / 14d1 · 2
SC Paderborn 0738%
Draw23%
Eintracht Frankfurt39%
Expected goals 1.77 – 1.80
SC Paderborn 0737%
Draw27%
Eintracht Frankfurt35%
Expected goals 1.36 – 1.31
SC Paderborn 0738%
Draw23%
Eintracht Frankfurt39%
Expected goals 1.77 – 1.80
SC Paderborn 0730%
Draw22%
Eintracht Frankfurt48%
Expected goals 1.58 – 2.02
SC Paderborn 0738%
Draw24%
Eintracht Frankfurt38%
Expected goals 1.65 – 1.66
Over 2.5 69% Both score 70% Likeliest score 1–1
EloLambda forecast, updated 6 hours ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Paderborn)

Forecast from 23 Oct

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for SC Paderborn 07 and Eintracht Frankfurt. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Team strength

SC Paderborn 07Eintracht Frankfurt
38 L90 StrengthIn forecast 48
38 Current StrengthIn forecast 48
34 AttackIn forecast 54
33 DefenceIn forecast 37
33 Form indexContext 52
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

SC Paderborn 07

Attack+13%
Defense risk−4%

Eintracht Frankfurt

Attack+18%
Defense risk−22%

Both teams face a more favorable matchup than their league-average baseline.

Playing style

SC Paderborn 07Eintracht Frankfurt
0.83 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.67
1.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.67
0.90 xGVia Att/Def 1.77
1.84 xG allowedVia Att/Def 2.00
-0.07 Goals minus xGContext -0.10
33% Scored inContext 83%
17% Clean sheetsContext 17%
13.50 ShotsContext 14.67
4.25 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.83
21% On target shareContext 40%
7.67 Shots in the boxContext 11.50
58% Box shareContext 78%
6% ConversionContext 11%
1.20 OffsidesContext 2.00
18.17 Shots allowedContext 17.50
6.33 On target allowedVia Att/Def 7.00
6.33 BlocksContext 5.00
4.67 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.67
74% Save rateContext 67%
46% PossessionIn forecast 51%
443 PassesContext 436
357 Accurate passesContext 353
81% Pass accuracyContext 81%
6.88 Team ratingContext 6.86
10.50 FoulsContext 10.33
10.83 Fouls sufferedContext 13.17
1.33 Yellow cardsContext 2.33
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 6 and 6 games
1.10 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.60
1.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.40
1.16 xGVia Att/Def 1.60
1.69 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.75
-0.06 Goals minus xGContext +0.00
50% Scored inContext 90%
30% Clean sheetsContext 10%
14.50 ShotsContext 14.10
4.75 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.80
26% On target shareContext 41%
10.38 Shots in the boxContext 9.60
60% Box shareContext 68%
8% ConversionContext 11%
1.33 OffsidesContext 2.22
16.00 Shots allowedContext 15.70
5.80 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.40
5.11 BlocksContext 4.44
4.60 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.20
79% Save rateContext 66%
48% PossessionIn forecast 53%
451 PassesContext 449
366 Accurate passesContext 370
81% Pass accuracyContext 82%
6.94 Team ratingContext 6.78
10.80 FoulsContext 10.80
10.60 Fouls sufferedContext 12.10
1.60 Yellow cardsContext 2.30
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

SC Paderborn 07
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km342 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 33 · 4 pts vs 6.0 for an average club · -1.3 vs expected
  • D17 OctA · Werder Bremen2–21.1 xPts
  • L10 OctH · VfB Stuttgart0–21.2 xPts
  • W20 SepH · 1899 Hoffenheim3–11.3 xPts
  • L12 SepA · Borussia Dortmund0–30.5 xPts
  • L5 SepH · SC Freiburg0–11.2 xPts
Eintracht Frankfurt
Rest5.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel178 km355 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 52 · 7 pts vs 6.8 for an average club · +0.7 vs expected
  • W16 OctH · 1.FC Köln1–01.8 xPts
  • L10 OctA · RB Leipzig0–60.8 xPts
  • D19 SepH · SC Freiburg2–21.3 xPts
  • W12 SepA · FSV Mainz 053–10.9 xPts
  • L6 SepH · FC Augsburg1–41.5 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
SC Paderborn 07 Eintracht Frankfurt
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match7Bundesliga 2026-2027, 31 Oct5.9Bundesliga 2026-2027, 1 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km178 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways342 km355 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 1 / 31 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one1414

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

SC Paderborn 07 Last XI · not confirmed
3-1-4-2 · vs Werder Bremen (A) 2–2, 17 Oct
15N. Noll(G)
22M. Hansen 25T. Scheller 21J. ter Horst
5S. Castañeda
23R. Obermair 40G. Vidović 28L. Ulrich 17L. Curda
27S. Tigges 30S. Marino
Eintracht Frankfurt Last XI · not confirmed
4-4-2 · vs 1.FC Köln (H) 1–0, 16 Oct
1N. Atubolu(G)
26K. Kosugi 3L. Brassier 4R. Koch 34P. Collins
8F. Chaïbi 27M. Götze 25R. Onyedika 20R. Doan
11Y. Ebnoutalib 9J. Burkardt

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
SC Paderborn 07 No reported absences
Eintracht Frankfurt No reported absences
Total impact vs full squads
  • SC Paderborn 07+0.0 pp
  • Draw+0.0 pp
  • Eintracht Frankfurt+0.0 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

SC Paderborn 07 · Home 1.00points per game · 3 home games
W-D-L
1-0-2
Scored
1.00
Conceded
1.33
Eintracht Frankfurt · Away 1.33points per game · 3 away games
W-D-L
1-1-1
Scored
2.00
Conceded
3.33

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 2 this season

OpponentSC Paderborn 07Eintracht Frankfurt
SC Freiburg L 0–1 H D 2–2 H
FSV Mainz 05 D 0–0 A W 3–1 A
Points1 of 6 · 0.50 per game4 of 6 · 2.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

SC Paderborn 07Eintracht FrankfurtForecast
Scored per game 0.831.67
Conceded per game 1.502.67
Match goals 2.334.33 3.57
Over 1.5 67%83%
Over 2.5 50%83% 69%
Over 3.5 33%83%
Both teams scored 33%67% 70%
Clean sheets 17%17%
Failed to score 67%17%
Games66
SC Paderborn 07Eintracht FrankfurtForecast
Scored per game 0.831.60
Conceded per game 1.502.40
Match goals 2.334.00 3.57
Over 1.5 67%90%
Over 2.5 50%80% 69%
Over 3.5 33%70%
Both teams scored 33%80% 70%
Clean sheets 17%10%
Failed to score 67%10%
Games610

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

SC Paderborn 07Eintracht FrankfurtLeague
Corners
Corners won4.335.33
Corners conceded6.174.00
Match total10.509.3310.72
Over 8.583% 5/667% 4/6
Over 9.567% 4/633% 2/6
Over 10.550% 3/617% 1/6
Cards
Cards1.332.33
Opponent cards1.171.33
Match total2.503.663.51
Over 3.517% 1/667% 4/6
Over 4.517% 1/617% 1/6
SC Paderborn 07Eintracht FrankfurtLeague
Corners
Corners won5.105.60
Corners conceded4.704.80
Match total9.8010.4010.72
Over 8.560% 6/1070% 7/10
Over 9.550% 5/1050% 5/10
Over 10.540% 4/1040% 4/10
Cards
Cards1.702.40
Opponent cards2.001.60
Match total3.704.003.51
Over 3.550% 5/1060% 6/10
Over 4.530% 3/1030% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

SC Paderborn 076 games · scored 5 · conceded 9
1 0-15
3 2 16-30
1 31-45
2 46-60
1 1 61-75
3 76-90
Eintracht Frankfurt6 games · scored 10 · conceded 16
5 3 0-15
16-30
2 3 31-45
1 4 46-60
1 1 61-75
1 5 76-90
SC Paderborn 0710 games · scored 11 · conceded 12
1 2 0-15
4 2 16-30
2 31-45
2 46-60
1 2 61-75
3 4 76-90
Eintracht Frankfurt10 games · scored 16 · conceded 24
6 4 0-15
16-30
2 7 31-45
2 6 46-60
3 2 61-75
3 5 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Beta

Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.

Next fixtures Bundesliga

View all fixtures →
Hamburger SV Borussia Mönchengladbach Nov 619:30 FSV Mainz 05 Bayern München Nov 714:30 Borussia Dortmund SV Elversberg Nov 714:30 RB Leipzig FC Augsburg Nov 714:30 SC Paderborn 07 Eintracht Frankfurt Nov 714:30 VfB Stuttgart Werder Bremen Nov 717:30 1.FC Köln Bayer Leverkusen Nov 814:30 SC Freiburg Union Berlin Nov 816:30 1899 Hoffenheim FC Schalke 04 Nov 818:30